dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Maybe this is the turnaround in the trend we needed...we just strapped Mark Sanchez to the bench and brought in Brady, gone from our own 4 to the 35. We'll see if we can get into FG range tomorrow or if this was just a tease. This run is what i expected 12z to look like really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 scott norwood references need to stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's a glorified southwest flow event basically which can be very nice here. Looks like we get secondary redevelopment, but never a bombing Noreaster...oh maybe for the Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Maybe this is the turnaround in the trend we needed...we just strapped Mark Sanchez to the bench and brought in Brady, gone from our own 4 to the 35. We'll see if we can get into FG range tomorrow or if this was just a tease. Can you tell if Leesburg gets snow. It looks close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like things are progressing as we first speculated they might that the coastal portion of southern New England into the I-95 corridor in NJ etc. are not looking good with this one. Glad to see the interior / mountains getting the goods. But remember, it is meteorologically impossible for this to go inland so maybe it will shift east! What's up with euro warm rain on dec 30 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 What's up with euro warm rain on dec 30 lol lol, We can even resolve the 27th never mind the 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 WU looks like this tracks over Plymouth, not ACK? Regardless, big shift SE this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 What's up with euro warm rain on dec 30 lol The Aleutian Low is still in the process of pumping up the ridge, but not before a few last waves make it through. The progressive flow does argue against the wrapped up solution but the ridge axis is west enough that it also makes sense. The ideas of a miller b seem reasonable now but not a threat for you and me. I would just take what you can get over the next 7 days and wait for a better chance in January. Are we the only two people on the forum with a 2 letter username? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's taking a low up as a slightly inland runner DC to BOS... Actually was good for most of Upstate NY...not that it Imatters at 168 hours. I see it's another center transfer. lol, We can even resolve the 27th never mind the 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The Aleutian Low is still in the process of pumping up the ridge, but not before a few last waves make it through. The progressive flow does argue against the wrapped up solution but the ridge axis is west enough that it also makes sense. The ideas of a miller b seem reasonable now but not a threat for you and me. I would just take what you can get over the next 7 days and wait for a better chance in January. Are we the only two people on the forum with a 2 letter username? lol It's meteorologically impossible for me too see snow anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's meteorologically impossible for me too see snow anymore That is scrotum crushing cold on the ECMWF day 9-10. There is also a hint of split flow trying to develop at the end but that's arguable. We'll get the cold, clipper type of snows with something like that but the big storm will wait until that PV gets out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Ya that Ridge out west really pumps. Again 10 days away #treadmill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro ensembles are warmer than the op. Low track is similar over ern tip of LI and SE MA, but there must be some warm members there. Still a little snow to start out as, but verbatim is would turn into a cold rain, especially south of I-90 and coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This could be another nrn ORH and srn NH snow --> ZR/IP fest, methinks. Possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Probably not bad out here.... Meanwhile 6Z NAM is ultra-amped, but this is the same model that had .25 to .5" with the Xmas Eve low a day ago and now T to .1" ago. This could be another nrn ORH and srn NH snow --> ZR/IP fest, methinks. Possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Is Scott Norwood our kicker? Last winter was Missin' Sisson, Scott Norwood would be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Days and days of shifts coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 BTV starting to honk...we'll see. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 438 AM EST SUNDAY...POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES THIS LOW TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN TO CAPE COD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW AND TAKES ITS LOW FROM SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND ALBANY NEW YORK BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST MAINE BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS MODEL WOULD BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS THE SECONDARY LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREFER THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION...AS THE COASTAL TRACK FOLLOWS MORE CLOSELY TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR COASTAL SECONDARY LOWS. THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE A MAINLY ALL SNOW EVENT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 06z gfs is ugly again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Early winter 2011 > early winter 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 At this time yesterday, I was in love with the GFS. I now feel spurned. lol Seriously, though--given where we are in time, I think Sam's exhortation to sit back and watch is the wise approach. This will very likley shift around the next couple days before settling on an outcome that might be better (or indeed worse) than what's there now. That said, I like the thoughts/discussion between the mets about the mechanisms and synoptics of why/how this could remain wintry or rainy. Thanks for that--educational. (and let's all hope for the EC-- ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm not sure if I've seen POP's progged this high with a 4-day lead time. Today: Partly sunny. A slight chance of snow showers this afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 20 percent. Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening...then clearing. Lows around 18. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds around 5 mph. Monday Night: Snow likely. Lows in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 60 percent. Christmas Day: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the lower 30s. Northwest winds around 5 mph. Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 15 to 20. Wednesday: Snow and sleet likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Wednesday Night: Sleet and snow with freezing rain likely. Not as cool. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Thursday: Freezing rain likely...a chance of rain and snow. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Thursday Night: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers and freezing rain. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Nice to see Euro op and ens trickle east a bit,,With a colder airmass in play this time than last week you have to wonder if ice is an even bigger concern Pike south while Pike north gets quite a bit more snow then ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If the low tracks over SE mass..that locks interior cold in..let's get a few more trickles east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 We stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 We stay the course. Yes we do..We should and we have and we will continue to do so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Ji still wineing LOL g-d bless somethings never change it amazes me the torturous models when you know as a tool their not accurate this far out.Year after year we look at them perplexed i like our chances and everyone gets wealth just bought a new mtd anyone know what 123cc converts to damn metric system and it won't start breaking out the ether 4 cyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 06z gfs is ugly again. Yep. Upton said that it's a western outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro snowfall map..not bad..and still room for another shift east Comments (0) Tweet Share Rate (+1) Original Size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 man that is an ugly set of GFS runs.. any meteorological reason it never transfers the energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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