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December 27/28 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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Its probably going to hammer most of the region this run...save litchfieldlibation land and the south coast.

Yeah, Its a hugger this run, This may in the end be the solution we end with but there is a lot of time left and many solutions still on the table, But the cutter solution is waning

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Its probably going to hammer most of the region this run...save litchfieldlibation land and the south coast.

There'll be like 6 inches of snow, but Joe will look the other way and then give the Bridgeport observer another pass on the obs and fake obs as he scrambles to find the one hitter

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nice run on the GFS.. pretty quiet here.. guess is still 6+ days away.

Yeah these OP solutions are just for weenie fodder. They really do not mean much at all. If its still flirting around the coastline in another 36 hours, then it would be time to start taking it more seriously.

There's some decent synoptic looking features in place just prior to the storm, but those are not guaranteed to be the same in 2 days.

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Yeah these OP solutions are just for weenie fodder. They really do not mean much at all. If its still flirting around the coastline in another 36 hours, then it would be time to start taking it more seriously.

There's some decent synoptic looking features in place just prior to the storm, but those are not guaranteed to be the same in 2 days.

at least something wintry to track,

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PRetty nice run...that's cutting it close synoptically though. H85 low cuts across NJ and then just south of SNE...you gotta be careful because it can go to hell (from an all snow perspective) pretty quick if that tracks a smidge west.

Agreed, but the mother-of-all-features is present and it's been fairly consistent: a decent high pressure in SE Canada (actually this is kind of a banana high, no?). In that feature I trust; suppression I have seen, but it's difficult to kick a strong Canadian high in the nuts.

I know you were loathe to even create a thread for this event, but, at the very least, a storm of some sort has been consistently present on the models for a few days now, and at this point I think the game is fairly afoot.

Kind of a classic setup, climatology-wise. Low rides up along the southern half of the Apps or thereabouts, jumps to the coast because a cold high in SE Canada says so. I want the Euro to say it, but for now, this is decent enough to perk one's ears. It's old magic, but good magic.

I say why not.

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It's still going to get messy I think post hr 150, but at hr 150, it's snowing across a good chunk of SNE even appears into BOS.

Yeah def a good step toward what we'd want...even verbatim if that was the final solution, it would be a nice chunk of snow on the front end with a bunch of IP/ZR after...esp in the interior.

But again, these OP solutions at this range are just entertainment...seeing a general trend develop in our favor though the past 36 hours is a plus.

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Yeah def a good step toward what we'd want...even verbatim if that was the final solution, it would be a nice chunk of snow on the front end with a bunch of IP/ZR after...esp in the interior.

But again, these OP solutions at this range are just entertainment...seeing a general trend develop in our favor though the past 36 hours is a plus.

Lets hope the shifts are more subtle from here on out. Wasn't there one at the start of December that went from a cutter to a snowstorm to a glance?

Looks pretty good, Chicagoans can come out of the cave

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Euro ensembles definitely look a little messy for SNE. Low tracks from SE VA right up the coast into srn CT and SE MA. Still over 6 days away, so I expect some more wiggles east or west with this low.

Consensus of guidance is a front end dump at least. I'm fine with that and we'll see if we can at least hang onto it.

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Consensus of guidance is a front end dump at least. I'm fine with that and we'll see if we can at least hang onto it.

Yeah hopefully. If it moves west just a bit, then we are out of luck, but that's a good high to the north so a front end start with snow is certainly there. It also has the look of a high thickness snow event too with temps in the 850-700 range getting borderline, but still cold enough. So 546 thicknesses could still snow given low levels should be cold, especially inland.

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