eduggs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS ensemble mean trakcs the low almost entirely up the spine of the Apps...from near the NE TN/KY border to southern PA to the Berkshires to Sugarloaf ME. I guess that's not too surprising. The mean SLP often moves along the Apps. But I wonder if the members are clustered or spread east and west. Somehow this feels like game over even though we are still 3 days out and current guidance still shows a frozen front end. Moving into the short range has not been kind to snowstorms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 models do way more calculations than you or i ever could in our head. So if a model shows it's going to rain because it loses the cad or whatever,.I tend to think it's believable for that specific synoptic set up. Well to be fair...the GFS is probably the single worst model we have a lot of data for at handling CAD. It is literally nearly 100% of the time way too warm at the sfc in CAD setups. It had virtually zero ice here last week...and we iced for about 24 hours. The 00z run was pretty ambiguous with the CAD as it tried to generate a secondary, but then sort of swallowed it back up. So who really knows what might happen on that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah, Its a hugger this run, This may in the end be the solution we end with but there is a lot of time left and many solutions still on the table, But the cutter solution is waning I will stay with this, This is probably a hugger in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 dosent mean much. I have seen GFS ensembles shift dramatically within a matter of 2 or 3 runs. I remember one storm a few years ago....all the members had a big storm and the next run...only like 1 had it Yeah. The ensembles aren't particularly useful when the magnitude of run to run changes exceeds the ensemble spread. Anomalous scenarios, especially beyond the short range, generally fit this criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well to be fair...the GFS is probably the single worst model we have a lot of data for at handling CAD. It is literally nearly 100% of the time way too warm at the sfc in CAD setups. It had virtually zero ice here last week...and we iced for about 24 hours. The 00z run was pretty ambiguous with the CAD as it tried to generate a secondary, but then sort of swallowed it back up. So who really knows what might happen on that scenario. you know what i mean though. I'm not talking about biases, really. Just that if a model shows something I'm not going to wave my hands and say well no, this is really what would happen with that 500mb trough/surface low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 models do way more calculations than you or i ever could in our head. So if a model shows it's going to rain because it loses the cad or whatever,.I tend to think it's believable for that specific synoptic set up. I agree with this basic idea and shake my head sometimes when people look at a graphical chart and argue that a particular model solution cannot happen. But I also agree with Will that the models in general, and the GFS in particular can underestimate surface temps in CAD situations by several degrees. The tiebreaker here is that what the GFS is depicting is nowhere close to marginal. That is a horrible SLP track for all of SNE. Maybe in the worst worse case a few sheltered valleys could hold onto 32 and freezing rain. But I see no mechanism to prevent the warmth from surging in. I think the only way to stay frozen in that setup would be to go above the warm layers in the highest peaks of the Whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm really shocked that the models are trending well west towards C NY. Disastaaah The good news is early January looks much less dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm really shocked that the models are trending well west towards C NY. Disastaaah The good news is early January looks much less dramatic. GFS almost has a springtime appeal way out in la la land. If it doesn't snow between now and then...I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Lining up for the dec coastal plain punt is the 0z euro, say it aint so mr. Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS almost has a springtime appeal way out in la la land. If it doesn't snow between now and then...I'd take it. We end up with a pattern that we're in now. 0c line hovering between NJ and Boston...storms rippling along it. The flow is mainly west to east across the country with very inconsistent/infrequent deep penetrations of cold air. Storms that approach have generally weak, retreating high pressure systems. The low pressure systems are able to rearrange the pool balls each time leaving us on the edge to warm. I don't know what it was that the models were seeing for 3-4 days that they suddenly lost. But in the end we appear to be back to the same pattern we're already in terms of ground truth weather. IMO. Hoping this is the burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS almost has a springtime appeal way out in la la land. If it doesn't snow between now and then...I'd take it. . What ...do u want to tip toe thru the tulips ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 . What ...do u want to tip toe thru the tulips ? I'd take the snow if it came. But unlike Blizz...if it just refuses to snow (esp. in Jan), just give me mild temps and sun. I'd rather walk through the wind tunnels of Boston in 50 and sun than 22 dry/windy (cold that eases with any approaching storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'd take the snow if it came. But unlike Blizz...if it just refuses to snow (esp. in Jan), just give me mild temps and sun. I'd rather walk through the wind tunnels of Boston in 50 and sun than 22 dry/windy It felt cold tonight loading the car with presents. It was 32!!!! That's how messed up things have been, 32 felt cold. In 03-05 when the canal had ice flows 32 would have been tshirt weather. I'm really frustrated. I really thought we'd get into periods of legitimate shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It felt cold tonight loading the car with presents. It was 32!!!! That's how messed up things have been, 32 felt cold. In 03-05 when the canal had ice flows 32 would have been tshirt weather. I'm really frustrated. I really thought we'd get into periods of legitimate shots. Yeah...about 28 here and I was freezing. We're a week till Jan 1. Maybe we're just in a bad stretch? IDK, but it is discouraging. (*This may be my first meltdown of the season --- I really thought at least one of these would work out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'd take the snow if it came. But unlike Blizz...if it just refuses to snow (esp. in Jan), just give me mild temps and sun. I'd rather walk through the wind tunnels of Boston in 50 and sun than 22 dry/windy (cold that eases with any approaching storm) let's join hands and pray for a euro surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It felt cold tonight loading the car with presents. It was 32!!!! That's how messed up things have been, 32 felt cold. In 03-05 when the canal had ice flows 32 would have been tshirt weather. I'm really frustrated. I really thought we'd get into periods of legitimate shots. lol, i said the same thing tonight to my wife. it was 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It felt cold tonight loading the car with presents. It was 32!!!! That's how messed up things have been, 32 felt cold. In 03-05 when the canal had ice flows 32 would have been tshirt weather. I'm really frustrated. I really thought we'd get into periods of legitimate shots. You may need to seek professional help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 let's join hands and pray for a euro surprise I'm with ya. Eventually, one has to turn our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You may need to seek professional help Euro is going to be butt fugly on storm 2. Look at it already at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro is going to be butt fugly on storm 2. Look at it already at 60 hours. Do you have a link? Or do you look at a pay site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It looks like my concerns about the Pacific's influence on Canada, bootleg block and ridiculously bad cold air source are potentially taking their toll here. If current modeling is right, I won't even see a lousy sleet pellet down here in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro is going to be butt fugly on storm 2. Look at it already at 60 hours. It certainly was for christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It looks like my concerns about the Pacific's influence on Canada, bootleg block and ridiculously bad cold air source are potentially taking their toll here. If current modeling is right, I won't even see a lousy sleet pellet down here in NJ. HM, give us some hope for January....do you see any? I don't when I look at the latest runs. I see us reverting right back to a similar pattern of the last 7-10 days by the first week in January. Like you said the PAC continues to overwhelm the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro is going to be butt fugly on storm 2. Look at it already at 60 hours. Unless it goes in the tank further north it may be a little better then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro is going to be butt fugly on storm 2. Look at it already at 60 hours. Slightly lower heights than GFS in Ontario Day 3. That's the only good thing I see so far. Prob ugly, but not as bad as GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 HM, give us some hope for January....do you see any? I don't when I look at the latest runs. I see us reverting right back to a similar pattern of the last 7-10 days by the first week in January. Like you said the PAC continues to overwhelm the USA. I think January is still on and I still like Jan 5-10 as the time frame. I know there were possibilities shaping up beforehand and perhaps a light event or two is possible; but, I think the widespread event is later. I could even be a little early, too. My analog data is not quite at "historic levels" for this storm potential and I don't think the Tropical Pacific is either, but everything looks good for something pretty decent. Best signal since 11/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Little more cad up this way may help out downstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This run is going to be less amped than 12z...the confluence near Maine is significantly better than 12z. Its still going to be a ton of taint I think...but it doesn't look to me that it can possibly be as amped as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This looks better then 12z, Slightly SE @ hr96 and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Way better by 102h...low is over Delaware. Most of SNE is getting heavy snow at this point on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.