Logan11 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well this beats all those out to sea solutions of a couple winters ago. At least Upstate NY is in the game...though I'd prefer it was over AVP and not BGM. terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 it goes to rain south of the pike...maybe even farther north than that the low is north central PA for god's sake. wrong. Site your llv temperature spread - I doubt this synopsis offered by this run supports plain rain at HFD - but that's my impression of this run, admittedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The NOGAPS and GEM Both show more classic coastal transfers, the GFS I think is clueless on the fact this won't remain solely a primary low Agreed hugely here. I don't think a primary survives the topography of the Apps when it's also running a medium intensity deep layer head long into an established cold wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The NOGAPS and GEM Both show more classic coastal transfers, the GFS I think is clueless on the fact this won't remain solely a primary low Yeah I'm leaning that way...I don't think its impossible to keep the primary so dominant up into the northenr Apps if the upper dynamics are strong enough. But we've seen a lot of primary lows get even up into NY state while ceding to a secondary sfc reflecion south of LI or SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I could envision the surface looking something like this eventually come verification time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 does it matter that much whether a secondary forms or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 does it matter that much whether a secondary forms or not? Does "what" matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I could envision the surface looking something like this eventually come verification time looks like a lot of rain. 12.9" here with that storm. I'd take it in a heart beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Does "what" matter? with a primary low track like the gfs had would a secondary do anything to help keep it colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I could envision the surface looking something like this eventually come verification time I partially like it - but the surface pressure pattern N of the encroaching system won't feature a high retreating E. That's important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 wrong. Site your llv temperature spread - I doubt this synopsis offered by this run supports plain rain at HFD - but that's my impression of this run, admittedly. I don't need to talk about low-level temperature spread. The synoptics of that run do not allow cold air to maintain near the surface south of the pike. If there is a real secondary that develops it change things, but that is not what that run showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 looks like a lot of rain. 12.9" here with that storm. I'd take it in a heart beat. We never went above freezing in that event...had 8.5" on the front end before icing. I wouldn't predict that much this time with the way guidance looks...but then again none of us predicted that back duuring that storm either. A secondary like that would make a huge difference in the interior probably from ORH to the Berks and into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 should I stay up for the EURO? also any other analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 should I stay up for the EURO? also any other analogs? The CIPS analogs page is hammering 12/25/02 over and over all over the place and it does look very similar as the system gets going in the TN Valley but for some reason we never get a coastal transfer this time so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 We never went above freezing in that event...had 8.5" on the front end before icing. I wouldn't predict that much this time with the way guidance looks...but then again none of us predicted that back duuring that storm either. A secondary like that would make a huge difference in the interior probably from ORH to the Berks and into CNE. Sounds like this could be a storm where I get 4" to brief ice to rain and you get 10". My favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Sounds like this could be a storm where I get 4" to brief ice to rain and you get 10". My favorite. Nah, I doubt our snow would be that different in this setup. The LL cold won't be an issue. Its the mid-levels. However, it could be a situation where I'm hanging onto 30-31F and ZR for hours while you rapidly warm from like 27 to 33F and rot there for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I don't need to talk about low-level temperature spread. The synoptics of that run do not allow cold air to maintain near the surface south of the pike. If there is a real secondary that develops it change things, but that is not what that run showed. I respectfully disagree. Even down there, the run (and we are only talking relative to this run!) the surface to 850 thickness don't appear to respond in time to the the fast motion of the event - then it dry slots with back side (still) cool flow. It also don't think it is a good idea to disregard the llv temp spread. Huh? If it's 31F in the N half of CT, with a mere +2 C for only a 3 hour period overhead, you are not raining there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The CIPS analogs page is hammering 12/25/02 over and over all over the place and it does look very similar as the system gets going in the TN Valley but for some reason we never get a coastal transfer this time so far. that would be nice, that gave my area 7-10" of snow..!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Nah, I doubt our snow would be that different in this setup. The LL cold won't be an issue. Its the mid-levels. However, it could be a situation where I'm hanging onto 30-31F and ZR for hours while you rapidly warm from like 27 to 33F and rot there for a long time. Oh okay. I thought maybe it would be a wetter snow here while you hung on to a more 28-29F snow. Obviously this is all theoretical as its 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I respectfully disagree. Even down there, the run (and we are only talking relative to this run!) the surface to 850 thickness don't appear to respond in time to the the fast motion of the event - then it dry slots with back side (still) cool flow. It also don't think it is a good idea to disregard the llv temp spread. Huh? If it's 31F in the N half of CT, with a mere +2 C for only a 3 hour period overhead, you are not raining there. look at 102 hours....that's rain for CT and RI...the dry slot hasn't arrived yet. You've lost CAD because there's no secondary development and the primary is so far north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 ukmet says coast hugger but def west trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 ukmet says coast hugger but def west trend Looks a lot like the GGEM. Both coastal huggers. Sounds like both are trending but behind the curve...we'll see how amped the Euro comes in about an hour from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 wow the 00z gfs bufkit gets me up to 3.3c at 850mb for a time. Still, a really nice snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 look at 102 hours....that's rain for CT and RI...the dry slot hasn't arrived yet. You've lost CAD because there's no secondary development and the primary is so far north and west. Trust me, it wouldn't - but I think I see the problem in our disagreement - ha. My fault. I'm actually correcting for details in there, and I don't believe even at 102, given antecedent conditions combined with speed of translation of the event, that it gets "rainy" down there. We are also talking relative to this run - so it's kind of flirting with pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 glad people are finally realizing the pattern has not changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks a lot like the GGEM. Both coastal huggers. Sounds like both are trending but behind the curve...we'll see how amped the Euro comes in about an hour from now. GGEM 989 over my house:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 maybe they all shift back east tomorrow and we can laugh about today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS ensemble mean trakcs the low almost entirely up the spine of the Apps...from near the NE TN/KY border to southern PA to the Berkshires to Sugarloaf ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS ensemble mean trakcs the low almost entirely up the spine of the Apps...from near the NE TN/KY border to southern PA to the Berkshires to Sugarloaf ME. dosent mean much. I have seen GFS ensembles shift dramatically within a matter of 2 or 3 runs. I remember one storm a few years ago....all the members had a big storm and the next run...only like 1 had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Trust me, it wouldn't - but I think I see the problem in our disagreement - ha. My fault. I'm actually correcting for details in there, and I don't believe even at 102, given antecedent conditions combined with speed of translation of the event, that it gets "rainy" down there. We are also talking relative to this run - so it's kind of flirting with pointless. models do way more calculations than you or i ever could in our head. So if a model shows it's going to rain because it loses the cad or whatever,.I tend to think it's believable for that specific synoptic set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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