ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah I agree. You can see some signals that tell me C NE may still be OK. It helps that the storm is already maturing so we're shutting down some of the really strong advective processes which may actually help prevent the torch. You can see the battle being waged in the mid levels. Also... it is tough to get a surface low up to BGM without getting some kind of secondary reflection hugging to coast to help tug down a bit of BL chill with a northerly ageostrophic drag. Maybe we can manufacture a Kevin meltdown out of this...if I can squeeze out like 4-5" on the front end while the snow line is rotting near the pike for like 3 hours before lifting north and he is 33F and RA+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 whoa i flirt with the 850 0c line even here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Maybe we can manufacture a Kevin meltdown out of this...if I can squeeze out like 4-5" on the front end while the snow line is rotting near the pike for like 3 hours before lifting north and he is 33F and RA+ You are cruel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Maybe we can manufacture a Kevin meltdown out of this...if I can squeeze out like 4-5" on the front end while the snow line is rotting near the pike for like 3 hours before lifting north and he is 33F and RA+ I will post 1,000,000 pictures from Killington at 2kft while his 0.5" from Tuesday morning (that is slant sticked to an inch and a half) melts away and runs down the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Stay the course I like you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I hope kev is ok . He will either go "big ice" or "rainers got their wish" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 sometimes when Will and Ryan talk I feel like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You are cruel Well it won't be a meltdown...it will just be Kevin "blowing off steam". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 850mb inflow is awesome...70 kt or so out of the ESE in northern PA. Only thing you could probably ask for is an increased 850 t gradient, but that's a pretty epic run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well it won't be a meltdown...it will just be Kevin "blowing off steam". lol, Once again, Well its the GFS so he will toss it anyways because its garbage and nobody should even look at it, But ia m sure bustardi will spin this into something epic that he can quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This run is a snow to a sleet scenario for interior SNE - the mets aren't helping the cause here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This run is a snow to a sleet scenario for interior SNE - the mets aren't helping the cause here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah I agree. You can see some signals that tell me C NE may still be OK. It helps that the storm is already maturing so we're shutting down some of the really strong advective processes which may actually help prevent the torch. You can see the battle being waged in the mid levels. Also... it is tough to get a surface low up to BGM without getting some kind of secondary reflection hugging to coast to help tug down a bit of BL chill with a northerly ageostrophic drag. Killington vacation bias? Lol. I really hope it works out for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This run is a snow to a sleet scenario for interior SNE - the mets aren't helping the cause here. It would go to rain eventually too. But I definitely think the storm has some potential to stay all or mostly frozen over the interior...as Ryan already said, its relatively rare that we get a low going over BGM that has been trying to stretch a secondary sfc relfection to the east and never actually form one. The CAD signal is pretty strong too with a large area of 1030-ish high in Quebec setting the table at 84h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Killington vacation bias? Lol. I really hope it works out for ya. Well to be honest I'm not excited at all about a track over BGM. That's not good for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This run is a snow to a sleet scenario for interior SNE - the mets aren't helping the cause here. It would go to rain eventually too. But I definitely think the storm has some potential to stay all or mostly frozen over the interior... That term pisses me off to no end, because it's so loosely defined. It means something different to each person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This run is a snow to a sleet scenario for interior SNE - the mets aren't helping the cause here. Im not sure the GFS depiction is all that likely. The surface reflection is one on side of the apps nearer the coast, and the URL is clear across NY state on the other side. Does this kind of thing work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Sneaky warm layers way up in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It would go to rain eventually too. But I definitely think the storm has some potential to stay all or mostly frozen over the interior...as Ryan already said, its relatively rare that we get a low going over BGM that has been trying to stretch a secondary sfc relfection to the east and never actually form one. The CAD signal is pretty strong too with a large area of 1030-ish high in Quebec setting the table at 84h. South of the Pike and inside 495 that kind of track is just ugly. No other way to look at it. Whether areas like ORH can stay frozen... that's a possibility... but still not very pleasant looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Sneaky warm layers way up in NE. Oh no doubt. Again just sort of an ugly track lol. It is weakening though as it moves up here... so once it occludes you wind up getting some funky looking temp gradients as advective processes shut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It would go to rain eventually too. But I definitely think the storm has some potential to stay all or mostly frozen over the interior...as Ryan already said, its relatively rare that we get a low going over BGM that has been trying to stretch a secondary sfc relfection to the east and never actually form one. The CAD signal is pretty strong too with a large area of 1030-ish high in Quebec setting the table at 84h. No it wouldn't in the interior. The antecedent air mass is too cold to withstand a surge to a mere +2C at 850, which then collapses very quickly eastward. It's an unusual depiction where storm motion is faster than the critical thickness' can mix out. You guys are wrong. "IF" this solution panned, you'd snow hard for 4-6 hours, and then sleet madly for another 3-5 hours, followed by underside snizzle. But I don't think this solution is the be-all for this event, either. Just sayin', relative to this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm tryin to drive the corsica to randolph,vt for the storm @ 1420' should be decent frozen event there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The Euro will probably do a better job showing the secondary formation. It sure looks like there should be one along the coastal plain in SNE or something. It would go to rain eventually too. But I definitely think the storm has some potential to stay all or mostly frozen over the interior...as Ryan already said, its relatively rare that we get a low going over BGM that has been trying to stretch a secondary sfc relfection to the east and never actually form one. The CAD signal is pretty strong too with a large area of 1030-ish high in Quebec setting the table at 84h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 South of the Pike and inside 495 that kind of track is just ugly. No other way to look at it. Whether areas like ORH can stay frozen... that's a possibility... but still not very pleasant looking. Yeah I agree. The pike will often be a dividing line in the interior if a secondayr gets going late. Kevin gets stuck at 34F and rian a lot in that. But if we keep this low to the west over BGM with no secondary reflection, then it won't matter if we are in Tolland, ORH, or Marlow, NH in Cheshire county....everyone will eventually go to 42F and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I seems like you guys are on autopilot because of that inland (unrealistic?) track. Snow to sleet then cuts off on this run. It's midland intensity-wise, too. Not that big of a deal. That's another issue for me for correction's sake. You got a solid slab of BL resistance in place, and the models ( even the Euro) just bullies a weak SD anomaly through it - I have a problem with this day's runs, big time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 No it wouldn't in the interior. The antecedent air mass is too cold to withstand a surge to a mere +2C at 850, which then collapses very quickly eastward. It's an unusual depiction where storm motion is faster than the critical thickness' can mix out. You guys are wrong. "IF" this solution panned, you'd snow hard for 4-6 hours, and then sleet madly for another 3-5 hours, followed by underside snizzle. But I don't think this solution is the be-all for this event, either. Just sayin', relative to this solution. terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well to be honest I'm not excited at all about a track over BGM. That's not good for anyone. it moved like 200 miles east in 6 hours, hard to take serious at all. Anyways hope it works out for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 it goes to rain south of the pike...maybe even farther north than that the low is north central PA for god's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 terrible I think folks can take a little constructive criticism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The NOGAPS and GEM Both show more classic coastal transfers, the GFS I think is clueless on the fact this won't remain solely a primary low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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