Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I sure was not, and have said so and got lots of JB tweets and LOL's hey things can change, and they will I am sure. But, you Will, Ryan, Phil and HM have laid it out on the table for weeks. This should be no surprise to anyone, and it may change back again who knows. Snow was never a lock this coming week, I hope it can happen. Hopefully things can turn heading into January or for that matter later next week. If you discount all of the insane snowfall predictions that are thrown around on a daily basis, and actually look at the pattern and listen to you guys things are pretty clear. JB's thoughts should really be banned from this forum, its become comical and really clutters up the threads, there is zero science behind them, only dollar signs. Lets hope things change, a White Christmas and follow up storm would be awesome. Creates lots of drama between regions and adds very little. Saying a storm will end up in PA is different than saying what it will/won't do in terms of accums etc. I think what red taggers say is being blurred by the totals that get thrown around and the perception is "they" are implying big snows. But I digress. I may get that western NY track yet Models look great after days 7-10 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 We may still have to the 00Z runs tomorrow night for a major change...thats when the responsbile 500mb wave gets ashore the West Coast and should get sampled...we know we have seen big changes before when that occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Gfs has a snowstorm next weekend guys. Relax lol...actually it's a mid-Atlantic snowstorm. That would be fitting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Creates lots of drama between regions and adds very little. Saying a storm will end up in PA is different than saying what it will/won't do in terms of accums etc. I think what red taggers say is being blurred by the totals that get thrown around and the perception is "they" are implying big snows. But I digress. I may get that western NY track yet Models look great after days 7-10 though. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Damn pretty ugly set of runs. We will know by Sunday night what Christmas will bring and by Christmas night what Thursday will be like. Always love the I told you so and you should have listened to the Mets posts. I saw nothing definitive either way, what exactly was I listening to? Waiting until Sundays runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Gfs has a snowstorm next weekend guys. Relax lol Its gonna have to ride this storm's ass, if it does it will be get up here before the confluence goes east and should have a shot to be something good, problem right now is I think again the confluence may escape east too soon...there may be a better cold air mass in place however for that event which would enable better chances for front end snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Damn pretty ugly set of runs. We will know by Sunday night what Christmas will bring and by Christmas night what Thursday will be like. Always love the I told you so and you should have listened to the Mets posts. I saw nothing denitive either way, what exactly was I listening to? Waiting until Sundays runs. Most were fine. There was a certain posted who had locked in 4-8 on Christmas and a blizzard a day later, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Its gonna have to ride this storm's ass, if it does it will be get up here before the confluence goes east and should have a shot to be something good, problem right now is I think again the confluence may escape east too soon...there may be a better cold air mass in place however for that event which would enable better chances for front end snows. The confluence is so strong that it ends up a Phl-dca snowstorm. It does have colder air to work with. W/e it's a day 10 prog lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Most were fine. There was a certain posted who had locked in 4-8 on Christmas and a blizzard a day later, however. But we all know Kev, some post here like everyone besides Mets believed it. Reverse hypsters, Bob never calls them out for spiking the football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Most were fine. There was a certain posted who had locked in 4-8 on Christmas and a blizzard a day later, however. I wonder who that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yikes... even a snow to rain storm for me up in VT. Ugly, ugly turn of events. hey... at least we get our measurable Christmas morning! Yeah... yikes. Verbatim it wouldn't be much rain if you're at Killington... plus some nice upslope on the backside like this past storm. Wouldn't be a bad system overall in the Greens and Whites. Really by the time H85 warms above freezing no precipitation falls in the previous 6 hours so it would be mostly snow. Then we do the upslope thing again down the Berks/Greens with lake effect downwind of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I know it has been debated whether or not that the Gulf Stream baroclinic zone has a pure impact on strength and tracking of a storm system. So here's my thoughts, models get too far west with the polar vortex phasing with the disturbance so much sooner than we needed it too. So instead the system comes eastward in future model runs and eventually miscalculate the heaviest snows and strongest region of cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't know about you, but I can't wait to see pics of that pedophile hide out house at 4K!!!!!!! Haha what? Did I miss something? Pedophile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 All the weenies trying to justify why above normal h85s to kingdom come wont hurt them..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Notice the change in the vortex over southern Canada between the 00z GFS run and 18z GFS run. When the vortex was farther east and more strung out over S Canada it provided enough confluence to push the storm east a bit and not let it amplify too fast and too west. With the vortex just north of ND as opposed to north of NYS we're able to cut this thing over the Apps with a lee-side redevelopment that's insufficient to lock in the cold with an ugly looking mid level track. Something to watch for but clearly an unpleasant turn of events today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Its definitely a huge change at H500s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What is the force that is driving this storm (or keeping the storm) inland, all the while refusing to give up to secondary formation off the coast? Seems like we've got the HP in southern Quebec. What's the deal? EDIT: Just saw CTRain's post. Nvrmd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't care where in New England you are, a big low running up to Syracuse is not good...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Also whats different is that all of the major forecast models are different with the H5 outcomes and developments for our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't care where in New England you are, a big low running up to Syracuse is not good...lol. ding ding ding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Last night's Euro handled the vortex similarly to the 18z GFS though and it was a great run for both systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Its definitely a huge change at H500s. yeah, wonder which one is right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah, good point, Brian. The 500mb evolution from 00z to 12z on the Euro wasn't much different at all. The storm was just substantually warmer. I would argue though that the 00z Euro track was bad for most of SNE even if on paper it seemed snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Resolving the 1st one on Christmas will be the determining factor where this one tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Alright, well lets see where the next 24 hours go. The disturbance will get sampled over the next 24 hours. Clearly it sucks right now, so it can't get that much worse in terms of sensible wx (ptype). This never looked snowy for the coast, regardless of this H5 orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah, good point, Brian. The 500mb evolution from 00z to 12z on the Euro wasn't much different at all. The storm was just substantually warmer. I would argue though that the 00z Euro track was bad for most of SNE even if on paper it seemed snowy. just curious why was that. was it the ESE winds torching the BL? snowgoose was saying how he hates seeing those SE isobars running into the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Alright, well lets see where the next 24 hours go. The disturbance will get sampled over the next 24 hours. Clearly it sucks right now, so it can't get that much worse in terms of sensible wx (ptype). This never looked snowy for the coast, regardless of this H5 orientation. You are right, The coast would/still have issues unless this tracked outside the BM which does not seem likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 i guess it never look'd like a pure snow storm for the coast but will was hammering some front end thumping for most of sne IF IF IF yesterday's run of euro or gfs were correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 just curious why was that. was it the ESE winds torching the BL? snowgoose was saying how he hates seeing those SE isobars running into the coast A sfc low tracking ISP-BOS is pretty meh for most of SNE. All sorts of issues including dry slotting, boundary layer issues, and pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Game over. See ya next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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