ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How much further west did the 12z Euro ENS go vs the 0z Euro Ens? 120h at 12z looks about 75 miles W of 132h at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Thanks guys. We'll see how it plays out. CPA to NYC would be my bet..somewhere through there for the ultimate track? Otherwise con pushes it outside the BM. I don't imagine we'll see it coming at the Cape but all JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro ensembles are kind of what you would expect at this time range....about 50-75 miles E of the OP at 120 hours. It would still give a lot of ptype issues.But regardless, as mentioned no matter what the models show at this point....still a long ways to go. Nice!!..Great news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 We stay the course Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi JMA, UKMET.Canadian all big city heavier options, GFS, ecmwf west, Has to do with energy transfer timing and feedback No change from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 We stay the course Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi JMA, UKMET.Canadian all big city heavier options, GFS, ecmwf west, Has to do with energy transfer timing and feedback No change from me Definitely the man to have in support for a storm. Real confidence builder from a consistently conservative guy. Wow overwhelming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Definitely the man to have in support for a storm. Real confidence builder from a consistently conservative guy. Wow overwhelming Lmfao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So is storm 1 overamped too? Dendrite busting out the logic. How dare you! On storm 1 I'd go with the GGEM qpf but colder. Storm 2 ride last nights JMA. It'll all work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Definitely the man to have in support for a storm. Real confidence builder from a consistently conservative guy. Wow overwhelming His ancestors were probably the Mayans that predicted the end of the world yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 We stay the course Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi JMA, UKMET.Canadian all big city heavier options, GFS, ecmwf west, Has to do with energy transfer timing and feedback No change from me LOL I'm starting to think Blizz and Bastardi are the same person. Taking the JMA/UKMET/GGEM over the GFS/EURO just because of where they have snows... yikes. There are going to be many more changes over the next 4-5 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Dendrite busting out the logic. How dare you! On storm 1 I'd go with the GGEM qpf but colder. Storm 2 ride last nights JMA. It'll all work out. lol... cherry pick the model runs and then adjust further from there based on the outcome you want to end up at. That's what they teach you when you go to Met School right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Always ride the model that gives you the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 LOL I'm starting to think Blizz and Bastardi are the same person. Taking the JMA/UKMET/GGEM over the GFS/EURO just because of where they have snows... yikes. There are going to be many more changes over the next 4-5 days... Yeah its pretty ridiculous. I cannot even recall offhand where inside 120 hours the JMA/UKMET/GEM beat the Euro/GFS if they were split in that manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 OT but re the Mayans....I saw a few intviewed who stated that the calendar ending had nothing to do with the end of the world...just the end of a cycle but hijacked by non Mayans. Was just it with the dog....4 miles to the top of Corey Hill to throw the ball and back. Windy and cold. Winter setting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Another ugly run on the GFS for SNE. Now that the Christmas wave is becoming less and less impressive it seems to me there's not much of a mechanism to keep storm 2 from cutting west. Anytime you see a storm intensifying over KBNA it is a bad sign for snow lovers in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lolol congrats laf and Chicago on 18z gfs. Way west, east coast getting torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 that +10 C is going to come close to tickling the south coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 that +10 C is going to come close to tickling the south coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 lol Serisouly no way to debate him. As the torch and rain has won out this whole month. It's comical. Lol onto January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Disaster... Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What a disaster. HM for the win........bootleg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Back to the supercutter solution. Plane tickets to Chicago. CLE changes over. Blocking and a 50/50 low don't stop a determined SE ridge. After the 50/50 low moves out and the block helps cold air retreat into Canada. This is why everyone hates low GLAAM patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yikes... even a snow to rain storm for me up in VT. Ugly, ugly turn of events. hey... at least we get our measurable Christmas morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What a disaster. HM for the win........bootleg I don't think anyone was sold on both being snowy, at least here in the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 LOL...and I'm the pessimist. You guys really need to get a grip. It's the 18z GFS, isn't that run off a TRS80 or something like that? We're fine, at least 96 hours of snow incoming this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't think anyone was sold on both being snowy, at least here in the coast. Is this still going to miss PF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 LOL...and I'm the pessimist. You guys really need to get a grip. It's the 18z GFS, isn't that run off a TRS80 or something like that? We're fine, at least 96 hours of snow incoming this week. Well I'm not sure anyone was locking onto a blizzard in SNE besides Kevin. Most of us recognized that we were in model weenie land. The storm still has potential... but the trend today on the op runs and the ensembles is discouraging for most of New England. To be honest, I'm quite concerned about day 1 of skiing up in central VT at 3500 feet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Is this still going to miss PF? I don't know about you, but I can't wait to see pics of that pedophile hide out house at 4K!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't think anyone was sold on both being snowy, at least here in the coast. I sure was not, and have said so and got lots of JB tweets and LOL's hey things can change, and they will I am sure. But, you Will, Ryan, Phil and HM have laid it out on the table for weeks. This should be no surprise to anyone, and it may change back again who knows. Snow was never a lock this coming week, I hope it can happen. Hopefully things can turn heading into January or for that matter later next week. If you discount all of the insane snowfall predictions that are thrown around on a daily basis, and actually look at the pattern and listen to you guys things are pretty clear. JB's thoughts should really be banned from this forum, its become comical and really clutters up the threads, there is zero science behind them, only dollar signs. Lets hope things change, a White Christmas and follow up storm would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well I'm not sure anyone was locking onto a blizzard in SNE besides Kevin. Most of us recognized that we were in model weenie land. The storm still has potential... but the trend today on the op runs and the ensembles is discouraging for most of New England. To be honest, I'm quite concerned about day 1 of skiing up in central VT at 3500 feet lol. Yep...me too Ryan. I never cared that much about back home thought it was a gully washer (Bomb 2), but didn't expect I'd be skiing in rain. WTF. Probably shouldn't jump to conclusions until after the 0z but it rarely seems to break back the other way when it sh*ts the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't know about you, but I can't wait to see pics of that pedophile hide out house at 4K!!!!!!! lol...we love PF. All in fun.I can't even muster much snow on the front end of the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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