Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Once again models lead and mets follow. What a drastic change that its so hard to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 i have some rope for sale if anyone in sne would like to have some. just keep the n conway area snow, its about all i have left lol Why would you buy rope over a model run 114 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hopefully its a burp run...not a very pretty system otherwise. It would still be our most wintry system of the season with front end snow and a period of distinct icing there over parts of the interior of CNE from ORH to S/C NH...but then eventually just about everyone would go to rain. Hopefully we get back to a bit more tame system. It was an ugly run right from the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Why would you buy rope over a model run 114 hours out? lol i bought the rope awhile ago and the post was to be taken as a joke i never really expected much with the second system on the CP was hoping for front end dump and anything else as bonus , i was on board for a couple inches on the first for -Union to ORH- with details to be figured out later 114 hrs isn't that far out. it's 4 hrs off of euro's "lock'd in zone of 4.5 days) . i know things can change tonite. But when ukie/gem are the two solutions showing an amp'd look for the first system v. gfs/euro (awaiting the euro ens) that seems like a strong lean toward the latter (if euro ens agree with op) , a flatter wave w first system which would allow the second system to go further west, it kinda seems unlikely that things will change that much more positively, unless the flatter first wave / more west second wave is not accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is in its over amp stage right now. Stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is in its over amp stage right now. Stay the course OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is in its over amp stage right now. Stay the course So is storm 1 overamped too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Another redeveloper next weekend. Preciep issues are abundant but chances are there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So is storm 1 overamped too? Stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 lol i bought the rope awhile ago and the post was to be taken as a joke i never really expected much with the second system on the CP was hoping for front end dump and anything else as bonus , i was on board for a couple inches on the first for -Union to ORH- with details to be figured out later 114 hrs isn't that far out. it's 4 hrs off of euro's "lock'd in zone of 4.5 days) . i know things can change tonite. But when ukie/gem are the two solutions showing an amp'd look for the first system v. gfs/euro that seems like a strong lean toward the latter , a flatter wave w first system which would allow the second system to go further west. is that off The GFS and Euro really are not similar for the first system. GFS is much more amped...not as much as the Ukie/GGEM, but a lot more than the Euro. I think people are obsessing over the first system affecting the 2nd one a little too much. It does affect it...but there are upstream differences between the amped and more SE solutions and also difference in how both are handling the block to the north of Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So....about January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 No need to jump ship, Its only a small hole in the hull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 No need to jump ship, Its only a small hole in the hull Said the captain of the titanic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Once again models lead and mets follow. What a drastic change that its so hard to believe It really isn't a "drastic" change ... at least synoptically. There's still a fairly strong intermediate/southern stream wave that amplifies and quasi-closes as it then lifts up the eastern seaboard, either way, whether there is rain or snow as a primary result aside. But, since American Weather Forum is really actually in reality American Snow Obsession Sickness Consortium, I can see why it could be construed as a "drastic" change if the models et al dare impugn a snow threat. haha - j/k. Seriously though, I think differences from the 50, 000 foot view are actually very small - it's just that small variances in a pattern such as this can have a meaningful influence on the sensible outcome. There really is a bit of a needle-threader about this 27th+ system, in that the NAO is rising rapidly at that time and my not feature much blocking downstream if at all by then. I was toying about that aspect this morning, and that the loss of -NAO type blocking might favor more of an open system then some of those previous slow down vertically stacking jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Said the captain of the titanic lol lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 American Weather Forum is really actually in reality American Snow Obsession Sickness Consortium True Story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I have felt all along that what will happen is I'll get about an inch from this xmas event, then like 2-5" from the 2nd event before a turn to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 OK. i never thought I'd see you act like this over a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I have felt all along that what will happen is I'll get about an inch from this xmas event, then like 2-5" from the 2nd event before a turn to rain. And a week ago you'd have killed for that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 i never thought I'd see you act like this over a model It's a joke. We are 114 or whatever hours out. Like I said yesterday expect changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Bootleg patterns make bootleg storms ...but we'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'll bet the ECENS are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'll bet the ECENS are better. They'll be SE of op to be sure..But will it be a tickle or something more meaningful is the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 They'll be SE of op to be sure..But will it be a tickle or something more meaningful is the question I'd be nervous along and south of the Pike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ensembles blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro ensembles are kind of what you would expect at this time range....about 50-75 miles E of the OP at 120 hours. It would still give a lot of ptype issues.But regardless, as mentioned no matter what the models show at this point....still a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hopefully we can go back to the original 00z ideas of keeping better confluence over Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro ensembles are kind of what you would expect at this time range....about 50-75 miles E of the OP at 120 hours. It would still give a lot of ptype issues.But regardless, as mentioned no matter what the models show at this point....still a long ways to go. A few on the forum just did this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How much further west did the 12z Euro ENS go vs the 0z Euro Ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How much further west did the 12z Euro ENS go vs the 0z Euro Ens? 00z was BID... 12z was JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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