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December 27/28 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah, that storm gave Albany 17.9" with over 30" in the Catskills and Western New England.

http://www.erh.noaa....Past/WINTER.htm

Its a very impressive storm...it is #11 on the KU rankings despite the jackpot being well west of I-95. Still produced 12"+ for most I-95 regions. The airmass was frigid for that one, so even the upper levels and mid-levels weren't totally perfect, it didn't matter.

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I just did a cursory eval of the 850mb level - the operational GFS was not nearly as bad as panned here. In fact, really only bring p-type issues to the Mass borders with CT/RI, before dynamically it collapses some 100 N miles E of Cape Cod a mere 9 hours later. That, despite having the low move to a position near N-Central CT.

There may be some sleet contamination from the 700mb level and tall column, but that is still over all a significant impact winter storm, with at minimum 6" of snow.

That said, yeah...the run goes against the last 24-36 of clear trend from all guidance types so it's dubious. Just sayin', in it self, it doesn't appear all that bad of a run.

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We found our burp euro run..........lol

Hopefully its a burp run...not a very pretty system otherwise. It would still be our most wintry system of the season with front end snow and a period of distinct icing there over parts of the interior of CNE from ORH to S/C NH...but then eventually just about everyone would go to rain. Hopefully we get back to a bit more tame system.

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That first wave is the difference maker, its flat on the Euro/GFS...if they are right on that which I would have to think they are given I trust those 2 models much more at 72 hours than the UKMET/GEM then the 2nd storm is going way west.

i have some rope for sale if anyone in sne would like to have some.

just keep the n conway area snow, its about all i have left lol

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