ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z GEFS amped too...obviously not as much as the OP, but the mean takes it over the Cape from S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Nice band of snow beginning here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Nice band of snow beginning here Wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The question now though is if the wildly amped Xmas solutions on the UKIE/GEM are causing them to be more favorable for the coast on the 27th, I would say probably yes. What a miracle that xmas event is in more ways than one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z GEFS amped too...obviously not as much as the OP, but the mean takes it over the Cape from S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wrong thread. Lol..Hitler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If the forecast models could react with human emotions, I'd say the 12z GFS is analogous to an over-reaction of the downstream ridging to some new-found freedom ... however it forgot all about the more amplified Christmas shortwave which would add confluence northeast of the next trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Will, I think I found BUF's biggest synoptic storm. It was February 1958. Tremendous amount of lake-enhancement from Lake Ontario with frigid temperatures. High was 3, low was -3F and we pilled up 29" over a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So we are locking in the 12z GFS and the 6z DGEX right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Will, I think I found BUF's biggest synoptic storm. It was February 1958. Tremendous amount of lake-enhancement from Lake Ontario with frigid temperatures. High was 3, low was -3F and we pilled up 29" over a few days. It wasn;'t the Feb 14-17, 1958 storm, was it? I know that one gave ROC a lot of enahncement on a NE flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If the forecast models could react with human emotions, I'd say the 12z GFS is analogous to an over-reaction of the downstream ridging to some new-found freedom ... however it forgot all about the more amplified Christmas shortwave which would add confluence northeast of the next trough. Your description was perfect. The shortwave resides near Nova Scotia and says hello north tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z GEFS amped too...obviously not as much as the OP, but the mean takes it over the Cape from S NJ. On the GEFS mean, I also note the tighter packed isobars on the W side of the system vs. the E. Indicates to me that there are fewer inland solutions vs. further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It wasn;'t the Feb 14-17, 1958 storm, was it? I know that one gave ROC a lot of enahncement on a NE flow yeah that's the one. 31" in ROC, 29" in BUF. Most have been mostly lake-effect, really. The track was favorable for an I-95 smash...not to give heavy snow way over here. I like where I sit with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Biggest EURO run since early Feb 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Of some's lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Biggest EURO run since early Feb 2011. Oct 2011 (you were still game all the way until that event started). But yeah...its been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Of some's lives Impossible. The 00z 12/25/2010 run of the ECMWF will always, always, be the biggest run of our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So I'm wondering how the mos snow numbers are derived. MEX has 2 at BOS for the 12/27 event presuming from the front end? Because the track as modeled would be tough to get that much since its rolling up so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm pretty sure that was a very big storm in ENY also. I know there was one around then in 1958 that gave over three feet of snow in the Catskills. My Dad always talked about it. yeah that's the one. 31" in ROC, 29" in BUF. Most have been mostly lake-effect, really. The track was favorable for an I-95 smash...not to give heavy snow way over here. I like where I sit with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The sne blizzard of 78 gave roc 2 feet I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So I'm wondering how the mos snow numbers are derived. MEX has 2 at BOS for the 12/27 event presuming from the front end? Because the track as modeled would be tough to get that much since its rolling up so far west. The MOS numbers aren't just taking the model verbatim...it takes certain parameters from the model and then weights it against climo and past similarity...MOS has a "memory". It tries to use the model run to give probabilities of certain events happening. So even though a verbatim model solution might give no snow...it can say usually when these certain paramters are present, we'll get snow. Likewise sometimes it predicts no snow when the model tries to spit out 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The sne blizzard of 78 gave roc 2 feet I think. 26". BUF got 8". ROC has had many more 2 ft synoptic snowstorms because of the aid of lake-enhancement from Ontario. BUF generally does not get much lake-enhancement during nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That would have been due to the lake enhancement I guess.That storm had fairly a sharp northern cut off around here. About a foot here, two feet down where I lived in Saugerties then, and only about five inches in GFL. The LES bands have finally decided to start blessing me here now. The sne blizzard of 78 gave roc 2 feet I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Impossible. The 00z 12/25/2010 run of the ECMWF will always, always, be the biggest run of our lives lol, I am expecting big things from you this week, Snow map wise......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The MOS numbers aren't just taking the model verbatim...it takes certain parameters from the model and then weights it against climo and past similarity...MOS has a "memory". It tries to use the model run to give probabilities of certain events happening. So even though a verbatim model solution might give no snow...it can say usually when these certain paramters are present, we'll get snow. Likewise sometimes it predicts no snow when the model tries to spit out 6 inches. Thanks Will. I kind of thought that and for this reason I believe these numbers are good signals although I've seen them take huge dumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 the ukmet is nice for both events, even down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That would have been due to the lake enhancement I guess.That storm had fairly a sharp northern cut off around here. About a foot here, two feet down where I lived in Saugerties then, and only about five inches in GFL. The LES bands have finally decided to start blessing me here now. what is this lake-effect you speak of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Thanks Will. I kind of thought that and for this reason I believe these numbers are good signals although I've seen them take huge dumps. Yeah there are times when they really screw up...but often they can be a signal or a red flag. There's climo in MOS, so very anomalous events they usually wont perform well....esp the further out in the forecast time it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm pretty sure that was a very big storm in ENY also. I know there was one around then in 1958 that gave over three feet of snow in the Catskills. My Dad always talked about it. Yeah, that storm gave Albany 17.9" with over 30" in the Catskills and Western New England. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/WINTER.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Isn't it the multi-band stuff coming off Ontario? It is snowing decently here now west of ALB along I-88. what is this lake-effect you speak of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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