40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 He's so worried right now lol. Over nothing I made a guess as to what will happen...I didn't spike anything. Did I not say "probably"? Mr. "blowing off some steam" AKA meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Ok, that's fair enough...everyone is entitled to their thoughts. Because this setup is different than the others, I don't know if we really furnace like that. Maybe SE areas do...it's just too early to tell, and even the euro ensembles aren't always correct 7 days out. See the Wednesday before Thanksgiving on that. I'm pretty excited from here on out. After being meh for so long, I think we have turned the corner to more threats thanks to climo and natural turn of events regarding the pattern. Stay with a more climo approach, meaning don't expect big things to occur quite yet, and hope to be pleasantly surprised. I'm excited after the 28th...indifferent right now on that one. I think we may have to go through one more grudgefest with that one before we're solidly into a better regime. Will's Miracle on 34th is definitely looking much better too. That's the only one I really care about right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We have a thread on a day 7-8 threat, I'd assume the idea behind that was to discuss what we think may happen/models. The pattern and Eduggs has clearly gotten to you and huggies. Well I wasn't in favor of starting a thread this early FWIW...but I do know it helps contain some of the posts about it to one spot. So I'm fine with it discussing possibilities. Deterministic solutions/predictions seem pretty silly at this point, but knock yourself out if you'd like. I don't see a whole lot of evidence on why this couldn't be 100-200 miles in either direction compared to the last storm...which would certainly be a large sensible wx difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You are obsessed with those two large events...many smaller events have targeted that axis, too. As have countless others to the east or southeast...starting with 6-10" that whiffed them on Nov 6-7 already this winter. Or the 1/27/11 storm that same year as the two they were nailed in. I dunno, it just seems like the October snow myth to me. Maybe its because you have been in a "jackpot" slump you are thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 As have countless others to the east or southeast...starting with 6-10" that whiffed them on Nov 6-7 already this winter. Or the 1/27/11 storm that same year as the two they were nailed in. I dunno, it just seems like the October snow myth to me. Maybe its because you have been in a "jackpot" slump you are thinking about it. Well, Brian has averaged about 90" since '06-'07....he averages about 70"...you do the math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well, Brian has averaged about 90" since '06-'07....he averages about 70"...you do the math. Well a lot of that was the SWFEs of '07-'08 when he racked up an obscene 142" of snow. Pure latitude in that case. Coastal systems are certainly a different animal. Maybe this turns into a SWFE...in that case, congrats the further north you go...but who knows at this point. It could end up being another 12/21/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Memphis jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro ens east of 00z DT says 168 hrs MUCH MUCH FURTHER EAST http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I had a few lucky years. If I was up here for 05-06 that 6 year avg would be much lower. I will pay for those great seasons at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro ens east of 00z DT says 168 hrs MUCH MUCH FURTHER EAST http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS168.gif Its been that way for 3 runs now...not a surprise. An inland runner or something offshore and everything in between are all in play right now. Its looking less likely an actual lakes cutter will happen now...so that part is probably good. But nothing is impossible at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro ens east of 00z DT says 168 hrs MUCH MUCH FURTHER EAST http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS168.gif East of the op run, not 00z ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 East of the op run, not 00z ensemble. He meant ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 He meant ens. It's not east, not that it means much. It's a little more inland and amped up. I think it's trying to phase more energy from a s/w in the nrn plains, based on what I can see at H5...although I cannot see the H5 vorticity..just going by heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's not east, not that it means much. It's a little more inland and amped up. I think it's trying to phase more energy from a s/w in the nrn plains, based on what I can see at H5...although I cannot see the H5 vorticity..just going by heights. What did the 156 HR panel show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z GFS squashed out to sea...looks like we can now start locking in solutions with good agreement between models. Euro and GFS are only about 800 miles apart...maybe we can close the gap to 500 by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z GFS squashed out to sea...looks like we can now start locking in solutions with good agreement between models. Euro and GFS are only about 800 miles apart...maybe we can close the gap to 500 by 00z. sarcasm ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 As have countless others to the east or southeast...starting with 6-10" that whiffed them on Nov 6-7 already this winter. Or the 1/27/11 storm that same year as the two they were nailed in. I dunno, it just seems like the October snow myth to me. Maybe its because you have been in a "jackpot" slump you are thinking about it. It varies a lot, but sometimes it does seem like the "average" jackpot is in that area...but each storm is different so its moot to to argue about. Obviously, that NW area of SNE has the highest annual snowfall averages, so its not really a surprise that it seems to snow more there...its because it does, lol. But yeah, individual storm jackpots are all over the place... seemed like Feb-Apr 2007 that jackpot axis was from ALB-BTV up through this area in VT, including St Pattys Day and Valentines Day. Then there are other times like this past November storm where it was over ORH-TOL...sometimes it ends up over BOS and E.MA. There's probably not a climo favored area for deformation/CCBs... just spots that tend to be snowier than others due to annual climo averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z GFS squashed out to sea...looks like we can now start locking in solutions with good agreement between models. Euro and GFS are only about 800 miles apart...maybe we can close the gap to 500 by 00z. Again we have another storm where it could go from Bermuda to Buffalo... and depending on which way different posters lean as far as "spin" goes, that's what we'll hear all next week, lol. There's going to be the cutter-it-will-never-snow-again camp and then there's the CTBlizz camp where its already a locked snow bomb or damaging ice storm regardless of what models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm feeling ok about this one. Remember the big western lakes and high planes bombs (like today) then to signal the change. Big snows there. Within 2 weeks big snows here. So if it's not this one (12/27), it's the next one in my mind. Loving the transition as modeled. Keeping hope alive but underestanding the little nuances that could dead rat us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It varies a lot, but sometimes it does seem like the "average" jackpot is in that area...but each storm is different so its moot to to argue about. Obviously, that NW area of SNE has the highest annual snowfall averages, so its not really a surprise that it seems to snow more there...its because it does, lol. But yeah, individual storm jackpots are all over the place... seemed like Feb-Apr 2007 that jackpot axis was from ALB-BTV up through this area in VT, including St Pattys Day and Valentines Day. Then there are other times like this past November storm where it was over ORH-TOL...sometimes it ends up over BOS and E.MA. There's probably not a climo favored area for deformation/CCBs... just spots that tend to be snowier than others due to annual climo averages. I looked at all the larger coastals we've had in the past 20 years and found no favored spot. Most of the advantage the N ORH hills/Monads/GC have over the rest of the region is pure latitude in SWFE and elevation in marginal setups along with some upslope enhancement in coastals that do not necessarily jackpot them. The axis of max snowfall though does not seem to have a favorite. This makes sense though since that axis is almost totally a function of synoptics like mid-level center track which controls the mesoscale features like ML frontogenesis. They average more snow for other reasons...both mesoscale and simple geography/orographics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Again we have another storm where it could go from Bermuda to Buffalo... and depending on which way different posters lean as far as "spin" goes, that's what we'll hear all next week, lol. There's going to be the cutter-it-will-never-snow-again camp and then there's the CTBlizz camp where its already a locked snow bomb or damaging ice storm regardless of what models show. I think the GFS is probably off here, this will likely be an inside runner. Only way I can see it getting pushed out is if the pattern modifies/changes just as the low is coming up the coast. We'll see, I still favor something along the lines of the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z GEFS take it over the BM...not much change on that front from ensembles. There'a c ouple apps cutters in there...and a couple whiffs. Majority are pretty wintry though whether they are all snow or snow to wintry mix. Long ways to go on this one though. We still basically have 3 or 4 more runs until we reach the point that the Euro ensembles were at over a week ago showing that snow parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z GFS squashed out to sea...looks like we can now start locking in solutions with good agreement between models. Euro and GFS are only about 800 miles apart...maybe we can close the gap to 500 by 00z. And the 18z mean would have this place jumping for joy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I had a few lucky years. If I was up here for 05-06 that 6 year avg would be much lower. I will pay for those great seasons at some point. you dont' consider 09-10 and 11-12 to be a fair payment? The debt is cleared! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Quick summary and discussion of some thoughts for anyone who is interested: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Quick summary and discussion of some thoughts for anyone who is interested: http://www.americanw...hreat-dec-27th/ Nice job Sam-I-Am.The 50-50 low deal is certainly crucial. It is interesting that the euro decided not to deal with a secondary, but it has been shifting eastward since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Analogs for the 28 11 days ago on the 17 suggested a conducive chance for a MA to Maine cold storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Quick summary and discussion of some thoughts for anyone who is interested: http://www.americanw...hreat-dec-27th/ Welcome back east Sam, We will be expecting some "Large Enhanced" Snow maps in the next couple of weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 0z GFS won't be a whiff like 18z was, Primary back over Kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 0z GFS won't be a whiff like 18z was, Primary back over Kentucky Its probably going to hammer most of the region this run...save litchfieldlibation land and the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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