OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'll be dammed. Pretty cool..I've played around with CSTAR before, but never saw this. Good write up as usual. Thanks man! Yeah, I just found this site a few months ago, and have been playing around with it. Really interesting stuff, that ensemble analysts have been discussing subjectively for a while, but I haven't seen these objective products until now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 <weenie fodder> For those of you who like to dig for a big storm to draw an analog to ... If you squint your eyes and tilt your head a little, the GFS isn't terribly far from something of the likes of December 2003 or even March 2001 ... focus on that lobe of vorticity over eastern Ontario just itching to subsume into the trough. </weenie fodder> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Thanks man! Yeah, I just found this site a few months ago, and have been playing around with it. Really interesting stuff, that ensemble analysts have been discussing subjectively for a while, but I haven't seen these objective products until now I definitely have to go through the literature to learn how to interpret those graphics, but a real cool site. You've done some A+ stuff lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So of course while i'm not in CT it's going to snow a foot, and in Lake Placid the GFS has nothing. Any models that have snow for both CT and Lake Placid, NY, or just in Lake Placid?(Top right corner of NY state)\ -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 <weenie fodder> For those of you who like to dig for a big storm to draw an analog to ... If you squint your eyes and tilt your head a little, the GFS isn't terribly far from something of the likes of December 2003 or even March 2001 ... focus on that lobe of vorticity over eastern Ontario just itching to subsume into the trough. </weenie fodder> Oh no you didn't. I thought the same thing when I saw that lobe just wanting to come south..lol. That vort lobe is a key factor in more ways than one...not just with confluence..but could inject some energy into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't mean to pick on you but I've seen a lot of these types of comments today and they just aren't true. Yes, Wednesday had a "Lakes Cutter" track but it was essentially the known bias at that range of the op. The ensembles were over the coastal plain and showed that Tuesday as well as yesterday. There has hardly been a crazy trend east in the euro suite or the ensemble mean. The only legitimate trend has been across the Pacific, where the next trough has of course sped up since Tuesday and weakened the western ridge. On the day of the Lakes Cutter, the OP ECMWF was a clear outlier and sharpest with this feature. Overtime, it became broader and has held the course. Basically, my point is: there may not be a legitimate trend east, just a bias-correction in the operational. Go ahead an pick on me all you want. In my opinion when a more experienced met picks on me it is a learning experience. And every learning experience is valuable. But in my defense as a grad student who is not working in the field of meteorology with very limited time on my hands. With a threat that is beyond day 5 I really only have the chance to look at the position of the system and not much else. So when I saw the system's position start in Chicago and make it's way to NYC over the course of a couple days. I saw this as a trend. Honestly though. Thank you for pointing this out. I mean this sincerely. Every little tip I can pick up is appreciated. And you guys and gals with more experience than the young pup such as myself "picking" on me is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Go ahead an pick on me all you want. In my opinion when a more experienced met picks on me it is a learning experience. And every learning experience is valuable. But in my defense as a grad student who is not working in the field of meteorology with very limited time on my hands. With a threat that is beyond day 5 I really only have the chance to look at the position of the system and not much else. So when I saw the system's position start in Chicago and make it's way to NYC over the course of a couple days. I saw this as a trend. Honestly though. Thank you for pointing this out. I mean this sincerely. Every little tip I can pick up is appreciated. And you guys and gals with more experience than the young pup such as myself "picking" on me is a good thing. He's a bully. In all honesty, that's the beauty of this board. Most of our learning is in the field. I feel like despite the competive nature of the field with so many trying to find jobs, the common bond we all have is the yearning to learn more....an inexact science will do that. With so many mets having their little areas of expertise, you can't beat this board as far as learning goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Oh no you didn't. I thought the same thing when I saw that lobe just wanting to come south..lol. That vort lobe is a key factor in more ways than one...not just with confluence..but could inject some energy into this. yeah I wasn't sure if I really wanted to post that, but I figured why not have a little fun lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 yeah I wasn't sure if I really wanted to post that, but I figured why not have a little fun lol Well Kevin is already locking in 5-10" for Christmas Day (always can adjust higher) so why not..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Have to say the CPC Dec 16 th analog D 11 really did a great job with 5 H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just an epic, epic period in front of us from here on out. A collective sigh of relief from all weenies and met weenies today thruout SNE as the cold front ushered in the hounds of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Have three or four glasses of wine ... and then check out the similarities between the 18z GFS and March 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Have three or four glasses of wine ... and then check out the similarities between the 18z GFS and March 2001 Wine...what are you 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Kevin, how was the Christmas party? Free Zima? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just an epic, epic period in front of us from here on out. A collective sigh of relief from all weenies and met weenies today thruout SNE as the cold front ushered in the hounds of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wine...what are you 60? okay, have a pitcher of bud and a jager bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Have 4-5 shots of Crown Royal and check out the 18Z GFS Ens mean for Christmas and the 28 th. I know the mean but anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Kevin, how was the Christmas party? Free Zima? 3 zimas and he's puking in Will's car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Kevin, how was the Christmas party? Free Zima? Stone sober. No brews on Friday nites..Saturday mornings are long runs 13 tomorrow. Carbo pasta overload And I'm just so pumped up for winter finally arriving...Flakes are flying,, weenie long and mean, holidays..wheeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 3 zimas and he's puking in Will's car. Dodge Ram full of vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 okay, have a pitcher of bud and a jager bomb I don't know how they roll in oklahoma...but here in New England we don't drink wine..we drink beer...lots of beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't know how they roll in oklahoma...but here in New England we don't drink wine..we drink beer...lots of beer Nothing wrong with wine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Nothing wrong with wine. Don't make me bring up the box wine you admitted you were drinking that night we were tracking Santa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't know how they roll in oklahoma...but here in New England we don't drink wine..we drink beer...lots of beer I drink everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Don't make me bring up the box wine you admitted you were drinking that night we were tracking Santa You've never played slap the bag? You're missing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I drink everything You're also the most interesting man in the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 You've never played slap the bag? You're missing out And just whose bag are you slapping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't know how they roll in oklahoma...but here in New England we don't drink wine..we drink beer...lots of beer White Zinfandel apparently . Sammy's back in NH though so we get to see a phallic map this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Don't make me bring up the box wine you admitted you were drinking that night we were tracking Santa Bota Box and Black Box are pretty good. Drink a lot of that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wine...what are you 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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