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December 27/28 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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MRG would be absolutely crushed on the 18z GFS, the h7 track is pretty sweet for the berks.

Long way to go still but I'm getting really excited for my ski trip in VT for new years. A couple really nice looking storms lining up for the interior with the CP as the battleground IMO.

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What a big weenie solution for just about all of SNE on the 18z GFS. Cape has issues though.

And there is a dramatic correction actually possible there - long shot. Notice the current trough heads on up into the 50/50 slot, then pivots all the way around and comes careening back SW through Ontario. Right it/that then Fuji Waras with the 27-28th deal, but if that were somehow forced more S just a wee-bit earlier, look out!

you subsume and go BOOM

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I'm definitely keeping expectations in check with this storm. If I had to guess, Will and Ray are going to do well. Obviously GC too. I'm not sold on this yet for BOS.

As is often the case when a great model run comes out.. now this 18z GFS will be the baseline for this storm. Someone will start to say "we are getting a foot of snow on the 27th" and it'll just grow from there. Then even if the storm turns out to be 3-6" or 4-7" there'll be disappointed folks because it wasn't the foot of snow that the 18z GFS had 138 hours out, lol.

Its like when you hire a new employee and tell them the wage is 10-15 dollars per hour. They don't hear $10/hr...they hear and expect the $15/hr :lol:

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I hate how the 50/50 low splits in half and part of it tries to phase with the storm. Models stink at handling this as well as the fast neutrally curved pack jet. Get ready for a lot of changes up until 48hrs out.

BTW: I am visiting my family in SWCT next week.

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The GFS will give everyone from DT to Ray their foot of snow run over the next three days. LOL

As is often the case when a great model run comes out.. now this 18z GFS will be the baseline for this storm. Someone will start to say "we are getting a foot of snow on the 27th" and it'll just grow from there. Then even if the storm turns out to be 3-6" or 4-7" there'll be disappointed folks because it wasn't the foot of snow that the 18z GFS had 138 hours out, lol.

Its like when you hire a new employee and tell them the wage is 10-15 dollars per hour. They don't hear $10/hr...they hear and expect the $15/hr :lol:

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As is often the case when a great model run comes out.. now this 18z GFS will be the baseline for this storm. Someone will start to say "we are getting a foot of snow on the 27th" and it'll just grow from there. Then even if the storm turns out to be 3-6" or 4-7" there'll be disappointed folks because it wasn't the foot of snow that the 18z GFS had 138 hours out, lol.

Its like when you hire a new employee and tell them the wage is 10-15 dollars per hour. They don't hear $10/hr...they hear and expect the $15/hr :lol:

Yeah my thoughts are definitely more reserved here vs the interior. The GFS probably would help keeps ageostrophic flow locked for a time here. You can even see a weenie QPF bump near BOS from CF enhancement (or at least appears it's that). I'd feel better if the euro and ensembles were a little more east, but hey in this winter...beggars cannot be choosers. I think there is that chance of something perhaps not far from the 18z GFS, since the block near Hudson Bay and the ULL north of New England may move south and help force the s/w the causes cyclogenesis, more northeast instead of north-northeast. However, I think I would lean in favor of the euro ensembles.

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The MJO is definitely non-existent at the moment but we did have a decent Kelvin Wave stir up the "phase 1-2" zone along with a strong negative tendency in the AAM. Interestingly, it may actually be the lack of a sharp PNA ridge that prevents a "Lakes Cutter" from happening. The progressive, KW bottle rocket is keeping the waves moving underneath our bootleg block, despite its propensity to slow things down. If we had legitimate cold air, this could have had some big potential; heck, legitimate Arctic Air would help slow things down but also prevent an inland runner. Then again, perhaps that scenario would have meant suppressed in the end.

Be that as it may (and I don't have any reason to add or refute ...) many of these runs end up quite +PNA looking. The GLAAM and the PNA are negatively correlated at CDC's matrix, so seeing it get out of the positive GLAAMies and seeing these emergent +PNA vibes ...its hearkens to two facets really:

1) Yay! the wicked witch of the -PNA stuck at -1, West, may finally be dead ...err... dying at least.

2) More hypothetical but in the absence of tropical forcing it's a nice sort of study period for how other atmospheric large scale wave dynamics can constructively or deconstructively interfere and force patterns.

In fact, how about a -AO with a negative GLAAM? That could get real interesting if the hemispheric cold conveyor has at least one branch through western Canada - seeing some dippiness in the EPO teleconnector may just mean so.

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I hate how the 50/50 low splits in half and part of it tries to phase with the storm. Models stink at handling this as well as the fast neutrally curved pack jet. Get ready for a lot of changes up until 48hrs out.

Isn't it the most bogus blocking setup? I'm only saying this because the anomalies themselves look amazing, almost 2009, 2010-like. But the air it's blocking is stale and the lows underneath the block are not related to the polar vortex fields. As Chris said yesterday, there are scenarios which can bring mostly snow to the coastal plain but they rely on perfect timing of things, not the pattern at hand. I think the general enthusiast can appreciate that sentiment at verification time.

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I hate how the 50/50 low splits in half and part of it tries to phase with the storm. Models stink at handling this as well as the fast neutrally curved pack jet. Get ready for a lot of changes up until 48hrs out.

BTW: I am visiting my family in SWCT next week.

Biggest events in history start out that way ;)

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As long as it doesn't rain in ski country during the holiday week, SNE can have this one. Of course I'd rather have snow, but looking at those ECMWF runs over the last 5 days that Amped just posted, I am happy that its slowly moving eastward with less chance of rain. Like 4 of those last 5 runs at 12z were rainstorms, so its nice to have one that isn't, lol.

Just as long as we don't see one of those situations where this is just some sort of data black hole over the Pacific that Tip likes to reference, and then in two days the cutter comes back. Synoptically it does seem like a cutter would be less likely but given this December track record, hard to completely ignore that possibility....especially 6 days out.

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