mattb65 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 MRG would be absolutely crushed on the 18z GFS, the h7 track is pretty sweet for the berks. Long way to go still but I'm getting really excited for my ski trip in VT for new years. A couple really nice looking storms lining up for the interior with the CP as the battleground IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z GFS is big for wrn CT and wrn MA to ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z GFS is big for wrn CT and wrn MA to ORH. Wow...haven't seen that before...I'm going to go out on a limb longer than a DC snow drought and guess Dendrite does ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Where are the cutter folks and rain till NYE? From a wx perspective only it is true..and we now get to look at another green Christmas..and New Year. Nothing thru the next 2 weeks that even remotely suggests snow/cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What a big weenie solution for just about all of SNE on the 18z GFS. Cape has issues though. Scott (messenger) will be out in full force checking Phil's snow depths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wow...haven't seen that before...I'm going to go out on a limb longer than a DC snow drought and guess Dendrite does ok. Just talking about what it shows, but that's almost 5.5 days out. My guess is that it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wow...haven't seen that before...I'm going to go out on a limb longer than a DC snow drought and guess Dendrite does ok. You would be giving him congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 That is probably what will happen...w NE is a perpetual deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What a big weenie solution for just about all of SNE on the 18z GFS. Cape has issues though. Yeah that would be a widespread 6-12 inches for SNE... great run for you guys. Would calm the weenies down, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm definitely keeping expectations in check with this storm. If I had to guess, Will and Ray are going to do well. Obviously GC too. I'm not sold on this yet for BOS. i'd say will def has a better chance than ray ( no offense to ray) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What a big weenie solution for just about all of SNE on the 18z GFS. Cape has issues though. And there is a dramatic correction actually possible there - long shot. Notice the current trough heads on up into the 50/50 slot, then pivots all the way around and comes careening back SW through Ontario. Right it/that then Fuji Waras with the 27-28th deal, but if that were somehow forced more S just a wee-bit earlier, look out! you subsume and go BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I hit the GFS front and back for that solution, but I'm not sold on that. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 i'd say will def has a better chance than ray ( no offense to ray) There is a latitudinal type deal aloft with temps, so Ray would be OK too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'd say the h72-h120 hour out to sea trend on the GFS is starting to begin with this 18Z run. By tomorrow's runs it will probably be a Mid Atlantic to southeast NE scraper. And then start trending back north around Monday or Tuesday. While the ECM locks in this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm definitely keeping expectations in check with this storm. If I had to guess, Will and Ray are going to do well. Obviously GC too. I'm not sold on this yet for BOS. As is often the case when a great model run comes out.. now this 18z GFS will be the baseline for this storm. Someone will start to say "we are getting a foot of snow on the 27th" and it'll just grow from there. Then even if the storm turns out to be 3-6" or 4-7" there'll be disappointed folks because it wasn't the foot of snow that the 18z GFS had 138 hours out, lol. Its like when you hire a new employee and tell them the wage is 10-15 dollars per hour. They don't hear $10/hr...they hear and expect the $15/hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I hate how the 50/50 low splits in half and part of it tries to phase with the storm. Models stink at handling this as well as the fast neutrally curved pack jet. Get ready for a lot of changes up until 48hrs out. BTW: I am visiting my family in SWCT next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The GFS will give everyone from DT to Ray their foot of snow run over the next three days. LOL As is often the case when a great model run comes out.. now this 18z GFS will be the baseline for this storm. Someone will start to say "we are getting a foot of snow on the 27th" and it'll just grow from there. Then even if the storm turns out to be 3-6" or 4-7" there'll be disappointed folks because it wasn't the foot of snow that the 18z GFS had 138 hours out, lol. Its like when you hire a new employee and tell them the wage is 10-15 dollars per hour. They don't hear $10/hr...they hear and expect the $15/hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 As is often the case when a great model run comes out.. now this 18z GFS will be the baseline for this storm. Someone will start to say "we are getting a foot of snow on the 27th" and it'll just grow from there. Then even if the storm turns out to be 3-6" or 4-7" there'll be disappointed folks because it wasn't the foot of snow that the 18z GFS had 138 hours out, lol. Its like when you hire a new employee and tell them the wage is 10-15 dollars per hour. They don't hear $10/hr...they hear and expect the $15/hr Yeah my thoughts are definitely more reserved here vs the interior. The GFS probably would help keeps ageostrophic flow locked for a time here. You can even see a weenie QPF bump near BOS from CF enhancement (or at least appears it's that). I'd feel better if the euro and ensembles were a little more east, but hey in this winter...beggars cannot be choosers. I think there is that chance of something perhaps not far from the 18z GFS, since the block near Hudson Bay and the ULL north of New England may move south and help force the s/w the causes cyclogenesis, more northeast instead of north-northeast. However, I think I would lean in favor of the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The MJO is definitely non-existent at the moment but we did have a decent Kelvin Wave stir up the "phase 1-2" zone along with a strong negative tendency in the AAM. Interestingly, it may actually be the lack of a sharp PNA ridge that prevents a "Lakes Cutter" from happening. The progressive, KW bottle rocket is keeping the waves moving underneath our bootleg block, despite its propensity to slow things down. If we had legitimate cold air, this could have had some big potential; heck, legitimate Arctic Air would help slow things down but also prevent an inland runner. Then again, perhaps that scenario would have meant suppressed in the end. Be that as it may (and I don't have any reason to add or refute ...) many of these runs end up quite +PNA looking. The GLAAM and the PNA are negatively correlated at CDC's matrix, so seeing it get out of the positive GLAAMies and seeing these emergent +PNA vibes ...its hearkens to two facets really: 1) Yay! the wicked witch of the -PNA stuck at -1, West, may finally be dead ...err... dying at least. 2) More hypothetical but in the absence of tropical forcing it's a nice sort of study period for how other atmospheric large scale wave dynamics can constructively or deconstructively interfere and force patterns. In fact, how about a -AO with a negative GLAAM? That could get real interesting if the hemispheric cold conveyor has at least one branch through western Canada - seeing some dippiness in the EPO teleconnector may just mean so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I hate how the 50/50 low splits in half and part of it tries to phase with the storm. Models stink at handling this as well as the fast neutrally curved pack jet. Get ready for a lot of changes up until 48hrs out. Isn't it the most bogus blocking setup? I'm only saying this because the anomalies themselves look amazing, almost 2009, 2010-like. But the air it's blocking is stale and the lows underneath the block are not related to the polar vortex fields. As Chris said yesterday, there are scenarios which can bring mostly snow to the coastal plain but they rely on perfect timing of things, not the pattern at hand. I think the general enthusiast can appreciate that sentiment at verification time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I hate how the 50/50 low splits in half and part of it tries to phase with the storm. Models stink at handling this as well as the fast neutrally curved pack jet. Get ready for a lot of changes up until 48hrs out. BTW: I am visiting my family in SWCT next week. Biggest events in history start out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Scott (messenger) will be out in full force checking Phil's snow depths. dont need a ruler to measure rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro last 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 As long as it doesn't rain in ski country during the holiday week, SNE can have this one. Of course I'd rather have snow, but looking at those ECMWF runs over the last 5 days that Amped just posted, I am happy that its slowly moving eastward with less chance of rain. Like 4 of those last 5 runs at 12z were rainstorms, so its nice to have one that isn't, lol. Just as long as we don't see one of those situations where this is just some sort of data black hole over the Pacific that Tip likes to reference, and then in two days the cutter comes back. Synoptically it does seem like a cutter would be less likely but given this December track record, hard to completely ignore that possibility....especially 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro last 5 days. yup lock up the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z Nogaps is exactly how I95 wants it. Miller A, Perfect track and an intense 850mb front over I95 would likely mean a death band. Probably 10+ DC to Philly and 15+ NY to BOS just NW of I95, too bad it's the Nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 A little more discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 A little more discussion http://www.americanw...h-winter-storm/ Are those graphics on NCEP? I've never seen those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Are those graphics on NCEP? I've never seen those. Here: http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/EnSense_Main.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Here: http://dendrite.soma...Sense_Main.html I'll be dammed. Pretty cool..I've played around with CSTAR before, but never saw this. Good write up as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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