forkyfork Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wow, even sne is whacked on the ens? the 850 0 line cuts from NW nj to BOS through most of the event. i think sleet/ice will be the biggest issue for the CP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Merry Christmas to all the SNE posters who have stayed the course and ignored the trolls http://ow.ly/i/1hAk6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wow, even sne is whacked on the ens? Yeah, though it gets close to mixing here...it probably would just looking at the mean storm track near the Cape...but the verbatim solution is fairly irrelevant at this point on this event...still 5.5-6 days out. The trend has certainly been good though. I think we're getting to the point where we can just about eliminate a lakes cutter...an inland runner (Hudson Valley/CT Valley/etc) is still a possibility for sure though. I think a pretty wintry storm though is becoming more likely...whether we stay snow...or get a good shot of front end snow and then sleet/ZR taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 the 850 0 line cuts from NW nj to BOS through most of the event. i think sleet/ice will be the biggest issue for the CP Prob like a V day 2007 for me....8" of snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Prob like a V day 2007 for me....8" of snow and sleet. that's not a bad comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 that's not a bad comparison I'd hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'd hit it. How about him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 How about him? Only if you sat in the corner with a toupee and watched... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Only if you sat in the corner with a toupee and watched... Tweeting with one hand, fluffing with the other? UPSTREAM A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROF SHOULD MOVE INTO/THRU THE WEST WED-THU AND REACH THE PLAINS BY FRI. ENSEMBLE MEAN CONSENSUS HAS BEEN GOOD FOR THIS TROF OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS. THE 00Z GFS IS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE SPREAD WITH THE 06Z GFS COMPARING MORE FAVORABLY TO OTHER SOLNS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A TAD ON THE AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE BUT AT LEAST HAS REASONABLE TIMING IN CONTRAST TO A NUMBER OF EARLIER RUNS THAT TENDED TO BE SLOW/AMPLIFIED EVEN COMPARED TO ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST EXPECT LOCALLY HVY PCPN AT SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE NRN-CNTRL WEST COAST INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. A BROAD SHIELD OF SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW AND LOWER ELEV RAIN SHOULD THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST... EMERGING OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I am wondering if this sneaky -EPO that's on going for the next 3 to 4 days is perhaps culprit in the entire median above 35N suddenly taking on such a cold complexion. This operational Euro run is pretty astounding when you look at the baroclinic tapestry of that 27.5th date evolution. It shows a western bookend low that is clearly at the west end of an occluded boundary that run east -west on down the LI sound, or perhaps LI its self, to the N of which we have 0C 850 isotherm packed pretty densely into eastern MA. That is unusual for a sfc circulation position over NYC bite area; it's clear that deep CAA suddenly preceding just post the Christmas exit low just seeds the the entire domain with so much cold that this low becomes quite polar-fied. There could wind up being an anomalous degree of thickness gradient on the N wall of the cyclone there - the rip and read structure there has an intense coastal boundary along I-95 that would have a very upright frontal slope and would probably be lopping some extreme snow fall amounts along a mesoband or two. Between Xmass, ... that system, and the implication of an excessive snow producing 3rd (I won't even go into THAT thing - jesus what a pig) this next 15 days could go quite far toward correcting area seasonal snow fall totals in the positive direction, to put it dryly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I am wondering if this sneaky -EPO that's on going for the next 3 to 4 days is perhaps culprit in the entire median above 35N suddenly taking on such a cold complexion. This operational Euro run is pretty astounding when you look at the baroclinic tapestry of that 27.5th date evolution. It shows a western bookend low that is clearly at the west end of an occluded boundary that run east -west on down the LI sound, or perhaps LI its self, to the N of which we have 0C 850 isotherm packed pretty densely into eastern MA. That is unusual for a sfc circulation position over NYC bite area; it's clear that deep CAA suddenly preceding just post the Christmas exit low just seeds the the entire domain with so much cold that this low becomes quite polar-fied. There could wind up being an anomalous degree of thickness gradient on the N wall of the cyclone there - the rip and read structure there has an intense coastal boundary along I-95 that would have a very upright frontal slope and would probably be lopping so extreme snow fall amounts along a mesoband or two. Between Xmass, ... that system, and the implication of an excessive snow producing 3rd (I won't go into THAT thing - jesus what a pig) this next 15 days could go quite far toward correcting area seasonal snow fall totals in the positive direction, to put it dryly. You have us wetly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Boy. I'm slowly getting excited for this upcoming pattern. Looks like some mood flakes on Christmas Day possibly giving the ground a white coating (maybe a little more than a coating if the ECMWF is correct). Followed by a couple storms that have some big potential. The trend has definitely been our friend so far with regards to the 27th storm. Just a day or two ago, the ECMWF was cutting the low to Chicago. Now it is very close to being a big snow producer for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Boy. I'm slowly getting excited for this upcoming pattern. Looks like some mood flakes on Christmas Day possibly giving the ground a white coating (maybe a little more than a coating if the ECMWF is correct). Followed by a couple storms that have some big potential. The trend has definitely been our friend so far with regards to the 27th storm. Just a day or two ago, the ECMWF was cutting the low to Chicago. Now it is very close to being a big snow producer for us. If that D10 chart verified watch that potent wave zipping down the ridge in west/central Canada - the system for the 27th would like produce a SPV and then as that potency careened underneath it could cause a good bit of those SPV heights to bifurcate and slip in to do a subsume scenarior... Then you're REALLY going on roids with this thing if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I am wondering if this sneaky -EPO that's on going for the next 3 to 4 days is perhaps culprit in the entire median above 35N suddenly taking on such a cold complexion. This operational Euro run is pretty astounding when you look at the baroclinic tapestry of that 27.5th date evolution. It shows a western bookend low that is clearly at the west end of an occluded boundary that run east -west on down the LI sound, or perhaps LI its self, to the N of which we have 0C 850 isotherm packed pretty densely into eastern MA. That is unusual for a sfc circulation position over NYC bite area; it's clear that deep CAA suddenly preceding just post the Christmas exit low just seeds the the entire domain with so much cold that this low becomes quite polar-fied. There could wind up being an anomalous degree of thickness gradient on the N wall of the cyclone there - the rip and read structure there has an intense coastal boundary along I-95 that would have a very upright frontal slope and would probably be lopping some extreme snow fall amounts along a mesoband or two. Between Xmass, ... that system, and the implication of an excessive snow producing 3rd (I won't even go into THAT thing - jesus what a pig) this next 15 days could go quite far toward correcting area seasonal snow fall totals in the positive direction, to put it dryly. when I read your posts I always wish I would have paid more attention in my english language classes in college Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I am wondering if this sneaky -EPO that's on going for the next 3 to 4 days is perhaps culprit in the entire median above 35N suddenly taking on such a cold complexion. This operational Euro run is pretty astounding when you look at the baroclinic tapestry of that 27.5th date evolution. It shows a western bookend low that is clearly at the west end of an occluded boundary that run east -west on down the LI sound, or perhaps LI its self, to the N of which we have 0C 850 isotherm packed pretty densely into eastern MA. That is unusual for a sfc circulation position over NYC bite area; it's clear that deep CAA suddenly preceding just post the Christmas exit low just seeds the the entire domain with so much cold that this low becomes quite polar-fied. There could wind up being an anomalous degree of thickness gradient on the N wall of the cyclone there - the rip and read structure there has an intense coastal boundary along I-95 that would have a very upright frontal slope and would probably be lopping some extreme snow fall amounts along a mesoband or two. Between Xmass, ... that system, and the implication of an excessive snow producing 3rd (I won't even go into THAT thing - jesus what a pig) this next 15 days could go quite far toward correcting area seasonal snow fall totals in the positive direction, to put it dryly. Naked twister, baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Boy. I'm slowly getting excited for this upcoming pattern. Looks like some mood flakes on Christmas Day possibly giving the ground a white coating (maybe a little more than a coating if the ECMWF is correct). Followed by a couple storms that have some big potential. The trend has definitely been our friend so far with regards to the 27th storm. Just a day or two ago, the ECMWF was cutting the low to Chicago. Now it is very close to being a big snow producer for us. I don't mean to pick on you but I've seen a lot of these types of comments today and they just aren't true. Yes, Wednesday had a "Lakes Cutter" track but it was essentially the known bias at that range of the op. The ensembles were over the coastal plain and showed that Tuesday as well as yesterday. There has hardly been a crazy trend east in the euro suite or the ensemble mean. The only legitimate trend has been across the Pacific, where the next trough has of course sped up since Tuesday and weakened the western ridge. On the day of the Lakes Cutter, the OP ECMWF was a clear outlier and sharpest with this feature. Overtime, it became broader and has held the course. Basically, my point is: there may not be a legitimate trend east, just a bias-correction in the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I don't mean to pick on you but I've seen a lot of these types of comments today and they just aren't true. Yes, Wednesday had a "Lakes Cutter" track but it was essentially the known bias at that range of the op. The ensembles were over the coastal plain and showed that Tuesday as well as yesterday. There has hardly been a crazy trend east in the euro suite or the ensemble mean. The only legitimate trend has been across the Pacific, where the next trough has of course sped up since Tuesday and weakened the western ridge. On the day of the Lakes Cutter, the OP ECMWF was a clear outlier and sharpest with this feature. Overtime, it became broader and has held the course. Basically, my point is: there may not be a legitimate trend east, just a bias-correction in the operational. Very much agree here - I posted yesterday that the Pac was clearly entering a state of pattern flux. The speculation is whether the MJO is throwing a R-wave contention into the fray as causal but's weak so not sure there. The only thing I can surmise is that the AAM flipped abruptly negative - which might signal some Asian flux pushing across the Np. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 interesting... By the way folks - for your filthy amoral pornographic pleasure (shame on you!): the 18z DGEX brings about 2-3" of liq equiv in sub 32F snow (for HFD - Manchester NH... That's probably about 32" of snow. Not likely to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I am wondering if this sneaky -EPO that's on going for the next 3 to 4 days is perhaps culprit in the entire median above 35N suddenly taking on such a cold complexion. This operational Euro run is pretty astounding when you look at the baroclinic tapestry of that 27.5th date evolution. It shows a western bookend low that is clearly at the west end of an occluded boundary that run east -west on down the LI sound, or perhaps LI its self, to the N of which we have 0C 850 isotherm packed pretty densely into eastern MA. That is unusual for a sfc circulation position over NYC bite area; it's clear that deep CAA suddenly preceding just post the Christmas exit low just seeds the the entire domain with so much cold that this low becomes quite polar-fied. There could wind up being an anomalous degree of thickness gradient on the N wall of the cyclone there - the rip and read structure there has an intense coastal boundary along I-95 that would have a very upright frontal slope and would probably be lopping some extreme snow fall amounts along a mesoband or two. Between Xmass, ... that system, and the implication of an excessive snow producing 3rd (I won't even go into THAT thing - jesus what a pig) this next 15 days could go quite far toward correcting area seasonal snow fall totals in the positive direction, to put it dryly. "upright" and "frontal". Sounds very arousing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Very much agree here - I posted yesterday that the Pac was clearly entering a state of pattern flux. The speculation is whether the MJO is throwing a R-wave contention into the fray as causal but's weak so not sure there. The only thing I can surmise is that the AAM flipped abruptly negative - which might signal some Asian flux pushing across the Np. The MJO is definitely non-existent at the moment but we did have a decent Kelvin Wave stir up the "phase 1-2" zone along with a strong negative tendency in the AAM. Interestingly, it may actually be the lack of a sharp PNA ridge that prevents a "Lakes Cutter" from happening. The progressive, KW bottle rocket is keeping the waves moving underneath our bootleg block, despite its propensity to slow things down. If we had legitimate cold air, this could have had some big potential; heck, legitimate Arctic Air would help slow things down but also prevent an inland runner. Then again, perhaps that scenario would have meant suppressed in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS looks good for another nice snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yes, Another decent hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It looks like the 18z GFS will screw coastal locations in New England. One thing that is lacking for us is a nice high pressure to the north. It's modeled to be pretty anemic...not good for Boston at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What a big weenie solution for just about all of SNE on the 18z GFS. Cape has issues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Im starting to get excited for this I hope it happens... I got the next 11 days off of work so it should be fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It looks like the 18z GFS will screw coastal locations in New England. One thing that is lacking for us is a nice high pressure to the north. It's modeled to be pretty anemic...not good for Boston at least. Wrong. Boston is all snow on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wrong. Boston is all snow on this run Lol. Spoke too soon. I am still concerned though. I would like to see a stronger high to the north, just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What a big weenie solution for just about all of SNE on the 18z GFS. Cape has issues though. I always love it when some person posts: "It looks like the 18z GFS will screw coastal locations in New England. One thing that is lacking for us is a nice high pressure to the north. It's modeled to be pretty anemic...not good for Boston at least." And the very next post and the very next is "What a big weenie solution for just about all of SNE on the 18z GFS. Cape has issues though." It sometimes makes this place appear entirely random and arbitrary - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 interesting... By the way folks - for your filthy amoral pornographic pleasure (shame on you!): the 18z DGEX brings about 2-3" of liq equiv in sub 32F snow (for HFD - Manchester NH... That's probably about 32" of snow. Not likely to happen... I'd trade the entire winter to verify that..what perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm definitely keeping expectations in check with this storm. If I had to guess, Will and Ray are going to do well. Obviously GC too. I'm not sold on this yet for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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