Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z GFS Ensm mean suggests so. Individual members are all over the place though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 hr `156 sub 992 low over south central va...driving rainstorm for everyone..western pa and oh valley get hit good. anybody else have the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 anybody else have the maps? Its ugly, Looks similar to tomorrows storm, Cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Its ugly, Looks similar to tomorrows storm, Cutter Thanks, luckily we are still 7 days away, typical GFS vs. Euro stuff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Thanks, luckily we are still 7 days away, typical GFS vs. Euro stuff.. Yes, A least this one has time left on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Its an Apps runner this run...similar to 00z. Doesn't mean much other than just about every option is on the table right now. The model consensus has definitely shifted east over the past 24 hours though. Yesterday's 12z Euro was over southwest Michigan at 192 hours...and all ensembles have shifted east. This doesn't guarantee a big winter storm. Everyone needs to remember that. Its just that some ofthe synoptic features are looking better on guidance...the biggest being the block to the north. The Euro is still the western most solution because it has the block with less influence on the 50/50 feature. It really doesn't hold in the confluence very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The euro past day 4 has not performed very well in a while, probably since the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yes it's beyond 4 days, but at the same time I'd be willing to bet a warmer solution wins out just based on our luck in December so far. IMO, JMHO, AIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro ensembles a bit west of 00z and continue idea of messy mix. Low goes over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Sounds good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The difference between EURO/GFS at least imo is how it handles the X-Mas wave...EURO never pushes the wave east enough to create more confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro ensembles a bit west of 00z and continue idea of messy mix. Low goes over SNE. Probably end up nailing Logan11, to GC, to Dendrite. Haven't seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Probably end up nailing Logan11, to GC, to Dendrite. Haven't seen that before. You are obsessed with that axis of snow because of 2 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You are obsessed with that axis of snow because of 2 storms. 25 December 2002 and 14 February 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You are obsessed with that axis of snow because of 2 storms. He's so worried right now lol. Over nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 25 December 2002 and 14 February 2007? Oct 29 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 He's so worried right now lol. Over nothing Anything is on the table. The high to the north makes it a lock for many to start as some frozen. The euro continues to develop a ridge ahead of the low that basically connects with the block forcing a more poleward track. It's also very strong with the disturbance crossing the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 25 December 2002 and 14 February 2007? 1/12/11 and 10/29/11. 2/14/07 had the axis more E NY up to C/N VT versus curled east...though interior New England still got hammered in the '02 storm even if they didn't jackpot, that one was def more E NY toward C NH. '07 was a sleetfest even up into NH...but it did produce snow too during the latter part of the storm especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 My only comment on the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I love the Gronk spikes people are doing one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 "don't drive angry" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Anything is on the table. The high to the north makes it a lock for many to start as some frozen. The euro continues to develop a ridge ahead of the low that basically connects with the block forcing a more poleward track. It's also very strong with the isturbance crossing the Gulf. We'll take an icestorm if we have to. Even though snow is favored at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I love the Gronk spikes people are doing one way or another. On a day 7 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I love the Gronk spikes people are doing one way or another. I'm not doing a spike one way or the other, I just think when it comes down to it for areas from the Pike south the net result may not be much/any different on this particular storm. If I were a betting man I'd toss the Euro and the OP GFS and go down the middle with a solution similar to the other day. Boston gets into the 50s as does eastern/SE New England, ski country has a messy mix, Maine gets hit pretty hard in the hills. A mess in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 On a day 7 threat. We have a thread on a day 7-8 threat, I'd assume the idea behind that was to discuss what we think may happen/models. The pattern and Eduggs has clearly gotten to you and huggies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm not doing a spike one way or the other, I just think when it comes down to it for areas from the Pike south the net result may not be much/any different on this particular storm. If I were a betting man I'd toss the Euro and the OP GFS and go down the middle with a solution similar to the other day. Boston gets into the 50s as does eastern/SE New England, ski country has a messy mix, Maine gets hit pretty hard in the hills. A mess in between. I agree with almost everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Probably end up nailing Logan11, to GC, to Dendrite. Haven't seen that before. Well i guess congrats would be in order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You are obsessed with that axis of snow because of 2 storms. You are obsessed with those two large events...many smaller events have targeted that axis, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 we kinda need this dec 27 storm like we needed the boxing day one in 2010-11, if we go into NYE with a goose egg @ logan ....or .5 inches or whatever they have...blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm not doing a spike one way or the other, I just think when it comes down to it for areas from the Pike south the net result may not be much/any different on this particular storm. If I were a betting man I'd toss the Euro and the OP GFS and go down the middle with a solution similar to the other day. Boston gets into the 50s as does eastern/SE New England, ski country has a messy mix, Maine gets hit pretty hard in the hills. A mess in between. Ok, that's fair enough...everyone is entitled to their thoughts. Because this setup is different than the others, I don't know if we really furnace like that. Maybe SE areas do...it's just too early to tell, and even the euro ensembles aren't always correct 7 days out. See the Wednesday before Thanksgiving on that. I'm pretty excited from here on out. After being meh for so long, I think we have turned the corner to more threats thanks to climo and natural turn of events regarding the pattern. Stay with a more climo approach, meaning don't expect big things to occur quite yet, and hope to be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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