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December 27/28 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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  On 12/22/2012 at 5:52 PM, OSUwx said:

Yeah, that storm gave Albany 17.9" with over 30" in the Catskills and Western New England.

http://www.erh.noaa....Past/WINTER.htm

Its a very impressive storm...it is #11 on the KU rankings despite the jackpot being well west of I-95. Still produced 12"+ for most I-95 regions. The airmass was frigid for that one, so even the upper levels and mid-levels weren't totally perfect, it didn't matter.

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  On 12/22/2012 at 5:59 PM, Logan11 said:

Well this would barely qualify as a blip for the BUF area. Maybe .3 or .4 dusting now out there. :)

you got to take when you can get lately. We got about the saddest 3" I've seen last night.

At least things are looking up with the christmas shortwave and the big storm at day 5.

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I just did a cursory eval of the 850mb level - the operational GFS was not nearly as bad as panned here. In fact, really only bring p-type issues to the Mass borders with CT/RI, before dynamically it collapses some 100 N miles E of Cape Cod a mere 9 hours later. That, despite having the low move to a position near N-Central CT.

There may be some sleet contamination from the 700mb level and tall column, but that is still over all a significant impact winter storm, with at minimum 6" of snow.

That said, yeah...the run goes against the last 24-36 of clear trend from all guidance types so it's dubious. Just sayin', in it self, it doesn't appear all that bad of a run.

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If the lowest pressure can just jump to the coastal plain it should be ok here. If it starts showing a dominant primary then it's curtains even here...aside from front end.

  On 12/22/2012 at 6:22 PM, weathafella said:

Great run for Hudson Valley westward. Still plenty of time but verbatim euro is a drenching rainstorm Kevin east.

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  On 12/22/2012 at 6:30 PM, Cold Front said:

We found our burp euro run..........lol

Hopefully its a burp run...not a very pretty system otherwise. It would still be our most wintry system of the season with front end snow and a period of distinct icing there over parts of the interior of CNE from ORH to S/C NH...but then eventually just about everyone would go to rain. Hopefully we get back to a bit more tame system.

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  On 12/22/2012 at 6:23 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

That first wave is the difference maker, its flat on the Euro/GFS...if they are right on that which I would have to think they are given I trust those 2 models much more at 72 hours than the UKMET/GEM then the 2nd storm is going way west.

i have some rope for sale if anyone in sne would like to have some.

just keep the n conway area snow, its about all i have left lol

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