NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 thats an Ugly Track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ewall has not updated have no ggem or ukmet maps but what i read is they are amped up and have changeover issues the ukie looks like the gfs maybe a hair further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro out to 30... Lets go south trend....please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 so far on the euro, strength and location of the low in the midwest is the same...the confluence and 50/50 low is stronger in the northeast supressing hgts a little more than 0z...also less northern stream interaction so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 pretty much the same as 0z so far through hr 42...less northern stream interaction and a little stronger confluence flattening out hgts a little more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hr 48 the low is weaker, pretty much in the same spot, then apply everything else i said up top which continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 looking at hr 54, the temps and thicknesses are colder over the region...precip just starting to enter wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hr 60 has the 850 line offshore on nj, then running through southern del...lgt precip starting to enter del and lanc co and chester co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hr 66 has the 850 line offshore nj then running under cape may through southern del...evryone gets .1-.25 frz line mmu-abe-rdg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hr 72 precip is out...weaker run of the euro...almost like a swfe, then when the warm push comes in at the lower levels the precip is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 also, the low tracks over dc and off delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Sounds actually relatively similar to the GFS. This may not be good for the next storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Sounds actually relatively similar to the GFS. This may not be good for the next storm... its not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Latest Wxsim using GFS and NAM still produces a White Christmas for the NW Philly burbs - although it is a combo of Sleet and Snow that get us to around 2" of white for Christmas morning IP/Snow arrives by 3pm and is finished by midnight - next storm brief snow over to heavy rain (should the latest runs prove valid) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Many ups and downs with the 27-28 storm yet to come, still a long way out. First things first, lets get that Christmas storm flakes flyin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm sure someone will say its just the nam past 24 hours but 18z is in and the storm passes over Erie PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 If the 0z suite doesn't go much colder, I'd say it is about time to kiss the white Xmas idea goodbye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 relax, if it snows it snows, if it doesn't so be it...enjoy your holidays, its not the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 True, but it would added to the holiday. 18z is disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If the 0z suite doesn't go much colder, I'd say it is about time to kiss the white Xmas idea goodbye it's the NAM at 72. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Thunder, I understand, but the gfs agrees for the most part. Still waiting for 0z though. I still have some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wxsim run with 18z data still has a White Christmas in the NW burbs....but only 1 to 2" with snow getting heavy in the late afternoon before tapering to drizzle by late night. The storm on the 26th is now a driving rain storm with near 2" of rain with a little sleet at the start in the AM. Just a little different from the model output yesterday at this time - what's 20" of snow among friends!! Either way interesting times ahead and still some hope for a White Christmas!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Thunder, I understand, but the gfs agrees for the most part. Still waiting for 0z though. I still have some hope. Who cares about the NAM? It's a crappy model outside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Who cares about the NAM? It's a crappy model. Fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 UGLY. First look at the models since this morning. Not good. Oh well, Christmas presents will still be under the tree, can't take that away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 UGLY. First look at the models since this morning. Not good. Oh well, Christmas presents will still be under the tree, can't take that away Amen to that. I'd rather it also be cloudy and cool than sunny in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Christmas snow event = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 My fault. Family was taking a trip to DC on Monday and we moved it to Sunday in case we hit weather near the end (particularly the trip back). Kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Christmas snow event = lol, this seems to be common so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 lol, this seems to be common so far this year. yeah, but life goes on. Holidays are awesome regardless of snow IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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