NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12 NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That was quite the change on the nam it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That was quite the change on the nam it seems. The last 12-18 hours have slowly showed this happening (outside of the Euro which has corrected east). GGEM was warm, NAM and GFS have gone more amped/warm in the past 12-18 hours. Not saying it's right....but it blows right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The last 12-18 hours have slowly showed this happening (outside of the Euro which has corrected east). GGEM was warm, NAM and GFS have gone more amped/warm in the past 12-18 hours. Not saying it's right....but it blows right now. what people do forget, was that it was 4 days out yesterday, still plenty of time to correct. As well as today, its still 3 days out. You don't need much of an adjustment south for this to be good. The trends are discouraging though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 abe buried this coming week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 what people do forget, was that it was 4 days out yesterday, still plenty of time to correct. As well as today, its still 3 days out. You don't need much of an adjustment south for this to be good. The trends are discouraging though. Yes and yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah this one is not a lost cause but trends are not good. May help us for the next one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 what people do forget, was that it was 4 days out yesterday, still plenty of time to correct. As well as today, its still 3 days out. You don't need much of an adjustment south for this to be good. The trends are discouraging though. Yeah I think I'm just putting more into this then I should because its on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would gladly punt this one for the bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think the CITY ITSELF has the best chance for the Dec 30-Jan 1 storm...that's just me though. Trends are discouraging. Too much WAA ahead of X-Mas low. Maybe us in the city sneak a quick burst of light snow (which technically counts as a white x-mas right)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Have no fear my friends - JB says don't trust the NAM - too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Have no fear my friends - JB says don't trust the NAM - too warm I hope people aren't trusting the nam, once inside 36hrs then take it for what it shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I hope people aren't trusting the nam, once inside 36hrs then take it for what it shows... The biggest problem with that is the NAM is notorious for having issues being too cold or south with southwest flow storms like this beyond 48 hours, if its already this north and warm it could get really bad, nevermind for NYC/PHL but even north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think the CITY ITSELF has the best chance for the Dec 30-Jan 1 storm...that's just me though. Trends are discouraging. Too much WAA ahead of X-Mas low. Maybe us in the city sneak a quick burst of light snow (which technically counts as a white x-mas right)? I think for a white christmas you need an inch of snow or more on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lets see what the gfs does here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 out to hr 27 so far, and the storm is weaker...less northern stream influence, lower hgts along the east coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The biggest problem with that is the NAM is notorious for having issues being too cold or south with southwest flow storms like this beyond 48 hours, if its already this north and warm it could get really bad, nevermind for NYC/PHL but even north of that. The nam is the type of model, meso as you know. Each run things can change drastically. So when you are way out in time, the chances of those entities changing increase. The nam may be right, but i wouldn't put it over the euro and gfs at 60 hrs out...now by tomorrow i would start giving it credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Definitely stronger confluence over the northeast through 42 hrs...storm is also weaker with about the same to slightly less northern stream influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Definitely stronger confluence over the northeast through 42 hrs...storm is also weaker with about the same to slightly less northern stream influence. Well that is sounding more promising, whats more important, the stronger influence or weaker storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well that is sounding more promising, whats more important, the stronger influence or weaker storm? id say stronger confluence, cause the more amped this storm it will help the following storm, stronger cold push on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 a little colder run on the 12z...phl starts as snow then goes to rain...ptw-ukt look to have some accumulation, with some taint later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Slight improvement vs 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 a little colder run on the 12z...phl starts as snow then goes to rain...ptw-ukt look to have some accumulation, with some taint later on. How about out this way KLNS? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Slight improvement vs 06z. For now, at least the trend of warmer every run has haulted with this run... This low is only going to go so far north with that confluence up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks like a couple of inches before changeover W of I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 For now, at least the trend of warmer every run has haulted with this run... This low is only going to go so far north with that confluence up north. Agree. Should set up well for next storm. edit: Wrong on that count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I hope people aren't trusting the nam, once inside 18hrs then take it for what it shows... Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 fwiw the ukmet is a little further south than the gfs, hard to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ewall has not updated have no ggem or ukmet maps but what i read is they are amped up and have changeover issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ewall has not updated have no ggem or ukmet maps but what i read is they are amped up and have changeover issues GGEM 58 hours GGEM 60 hours GGEM 63 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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