jwilson Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The northern stream continues to dig down further with each model run, trend continues with this one. In regards to the following storm, is it better if the first wave digs more or remains weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 In regards to the following storm, is it better if the first wave digs more or remains weaker? Well you want it to dig, but not come north in doing so. When it interacts with the northern stream moreso it will increase the chances of it going further north because its pumping the hgts out ahead of it. You want it to travel underneath us, so it then sets up the next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks good so far. Almost perfect track for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 phl and immediate burbs flip to rain on this run then go back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Less precip than 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Gfs is great away from i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Less precip than 18z? less of a qpf bullseye, but its an increase in precip over a larger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 A little less precip and a little warmer compared to 18z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 sv snow map has 2-4 from 95 west and north, though id lean more towards the 2 by 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lol. QPF bullseye over Ray's house. 0.55" liquid eqv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 A little less precip and a little warmer compared to 18z . Yea, it has more northern stream interaction, which is causing the hgts to rise out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 KPNE - 0.52", but about 0.26" of that is melting at the surface. KPHL - 0.49", rain/snow mix KTTN - 0.47", about 0.17" melting KABE - 0.36", about 0.11" melting KRDG - 0.39", about 0.17" melting KMPO - 0.32", all snow KMIV - 0.41", mostly rain basically 2-3" along 95 and N&W, coating S&E. Bullseye would probably be DYL-LNS-RDG-ABE where you might squeeze out 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This storm may continue to trend warmer...the gefs were warmer than the operational in terms of thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Canadian is all rain everywhere near here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Canadian is all rain everywhere near here. looks like the 12z euro run from yesterday with the track to Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hr 72 of the euro has lgt precip starting to work into lanc co... 850 line is toms river nj-folsom nj-northern kent co del...frz line mmu to abe to mdt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hr 78 .25-.5 195 west to hgr-mdt-abe-edison nj....1-.25 the rest of the area...850 line toms river to miv to northern kent co...frz line northern somerset co nj..ukt-gilbertsville, pa-ephrata, pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hr 84 .1-.25 acy to phl intl-ptw-rdg on northeast.... 850 line freehold,nj-williamstown, nj- northern kent co del...frz line take the hr 78 mark and move it north by 25 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 accum precip... .25-.5 for everyone...freehold to abe to ne pa on northeast .5-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z GFS, FWIW, takes the low across PA just to the city's north. Rain in city & burbs, snow for Lehigh Valley & north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This storm may continue to trend warmer...the gefs were warmer than the operational in terms of thermals. The only thing keeping me from thinking thats a lock is that there is decent confluence with that low in SE Canada but yeah right now I'd feel best on a Scranton-Poughkeepsie-Hartford line or so, even a good part of the NYC northern suburbs may ultimately end up not doing too well on this event. The advanced timing up into the day is also a negative. I think though that a stronger more amped version of this event is only going to help everyone's chances on the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Eww.....to the 6z NAM and GFS. Weenie heartbreak on the 12z runs? Things looking more amped flood the area in warmer air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wxsim run with 6z GFS and NAM lead to quite the ice storm here in the NW Philly burbs (naturally this will trend to all rain on the next run and then back to all snow for 18z....etc) For Christmas eve Light Snow arriving by 2pm temp 38.8 Heavy Snow by 3pm temp 34.4 Mix of IP/ZR by 430p 32.2 Light ZR till ending near midnight temps 31.5 Total precip all frozen (0.23") - will run down the timing on the 26/27th storm under that thread but again all frozen but near 1.23" of precip!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 close call on overnight euro for north and west suburbs, same with 6Z GFS, feel like im in the hot seat now for christmas snow what do the SREF's show now? read some not too good things about them but that was the early runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z NAM, so far, less QPF but a bit stronger on the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 close call on overnight euro for north and west suburbs, same with 6Z GFS, feel like im in the hot seat now for christmas snow what do the SREF's show now? read some not too good things about them but that was the early runs ? the euro was colder than the 12z run yesterday and colder than the current gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The gfs is amplifying the wave to much. To much northern stream involvement and its allowing the hgts to rise out ahead of the storm. You need it lessen that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 MAM looks like snow north of turnpike thru 60, BUT with the low track everyone looks to warm up in later panels. Still a bit outside the NAM range. Hopefully the GFS goes colder at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 nam puts everyone south of I-78 to light rain at some point. Congrats Binghamton. (verbatim it's quick hit of snow to rain in between the Turnpike and 78) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 YIKES. Coal in the stockings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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