Thunder Road Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Off the BUFKIT, KPNE gets 0.20" of liquid but only 0.08" of that is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 that wave on the euro would probably be a virgathon IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z RGEM is all snow for Philly and points north. 2-5 mm (.08-0.20") but probably closer to the 0.1" than the 0.2" going off the maps. There is still hope for 1-2" of snow. Just enough to get you through Christmas Eve Mass, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z GFS is colder but drier. 0.10" barely makes it to the Turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 36: 39: looks like snow to sleet FYI, there might be sleet in the transition (more likely ZR though) but that 3Z sounding above is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Mt. Holly total snowfall. Sorry link only, can't post map from mobile device (but its probably better that way anyway). http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam looks a little cooler* hour 27, during peak..540 line runes just south of delco/pa/md border. very wet flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam looks a little cooler* hour 27, during peak..540 line runes just south of delco/pa/md border. very wet flakes. Word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I don't know if that's snow...1000-900mb doesn't look too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like there will be a bit of snow here at TTN tomorow evening, it could start as a little rain (because of warm BL) and looks likely to end as some (due to warm advection). Not much accumulation, but could see a brief coating. Don't like the chances of any being left Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z Wed. for a place like PTW is snow on the SkewT, but by 3z there is a major warm intrusion aloft. So it's transitioning on the NAM in the nearby NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 A place like ABE is snow til 6z, then the warm air aloft punches in (sleet?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 It is colder overall though, right? 850 0c seems like it has moved south quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'll be the first to say it, the trend is our friend . Flame away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brenjames Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'll be the first to say it, the trend is our friend . Flame away LOLZ. Hope springs eternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah. Don't get me wrong, not expecting much at all, but if we can have some light snow on Xmas eve, I'll be overjoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It is colder overall though, right? 850 0c seems like it has moved south quite a bit. 850 is a smidge colder, but it still goes above freezing in the column below 850mb as the evening progresses changing wet snow to sleet and then rain. Maybe in the end the column finds a way to stay below freezing a little while longer than depicted on the NAM (3z-6z northwest burbs). Before that further south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well, looks like this one may not give us a "white" Xmas, but here is hoping for some flakes to add to everyone's holiday. Merry Christmas all! Be safe and enjoy your time with family and friends. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0z RGEM for "Philadelphia" (I assume it's KPHL) shows about 5 mm of precip, 4 mm of that being with 1000-500 mb thicknesses less than 540 dam. (5 mm = 0.20", roughly) There is a small 2.5 - 5 mm blob that the model produces over the city between 0z and 3z, with the 540 Line right along the Delaware River and then Maryland border. Supposedly the RGEM was significantly improved for this season (or so the Canadians say, at least) so let's see if it turns out to be right and we get an inch in the city, Although right now my gut tells me we get a few hours of light snow with no sticking thanks to warm surface temps. So let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is about the same. Between 0.1 and 0.25. Expect a couple of hours of snow before changeover. Any accumulation would be a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The RGEM still holds hope for a slushy coating to an inch in the NW burbs and Leigh Valley. That's probably as good as it could get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 .1 or so on the EC. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 402 AM EST MON DEC 24 2012 NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-242100- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0008.121225T0000Z-121225T0900Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON 402 AM EST MON DEC 24 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN 1 INCH...ALONG WITH AROUND SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE. * TIMING...THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING * IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS IN THESE AREAS. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 06z models trended a little warmer. Accumulation unlikely down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 They got us working shifts. I work 17 hours today and Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 For NW Chester County (WWA about 6 miles NW of here) Wxsim has a mix of snow and rain tonight with temps holding just above freezing. Despite that I expect the 12z GFS and NAM to come in colder and expect a small accumulation especially in the higher elevations of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Expect that to trend back colder with the 12z runs this AM.... The 06z models trended a little warmer. Accumulation unlikely down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 They got us working shifts. I work 17 hours today and Wednesday You'll get OT, right? Sounds as if you'll be putting down anti-skid material, and no plowing for tonite's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You'll get OT, right? Sounds as if you'll be putting down anti-skid material, and no plowing for tonite's event. Yep anti skid, we plow when there is 2" so ya never know. I'm out of the northern most edge of Lehigh county so it gets dicey quick here. At least we are off tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NWS calling for 1-2 here now. Wednesday they are calling for a good ole fashioned sleet storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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