hazwoper Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Since we are getting close and no thread has been started, I figured I'd open the topic for models/discussion. Typically wouldn't make a new thread for a system of this size, but seeing it is Christmas, thought we might as well get it out there. 12Z GFS early Christmas morning. 850 0C just south of PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well, not much moisture this go around, but still some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well, considering the forecasts have been and continue to be for sunny to partly cloudy with seasonable cold, this would be a pleasant turn of events and be a nice appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Heck even if we got a flizzard on xmas with a quarter of an inch I'd be happy. Just seeing the smallest amount would be appreciable on Christmas morning. Beats lower 60s with sunshine :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 gefs are more enthused with christmas wave moisture wise... Drops .1-.25 over the region. BL looks good on the gefs from phl on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It would be nice if this happened... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I use an Android app that has a nice radar presentation along with a 10 day forecast (not accuwx) and it does indeed have some snow in my forecast for Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Do we need this wave to develop into the 50/50 for the storm on the 27th to be frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Do we need this wave to develop into the 50/50 for the storm on the 27th to be frozen? steve, i would think a stronger system would create a nice 50/50 and help squash the hgts down. Also, a further south storm would help in bringing in colder air to setting up a boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 ggem still pretty robust with the christmas wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Nice. Looking pretty good attm, but still a few days to go. believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hmmmm, wet: South Jersey special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 juicier and colder christmas event looks like the canadian now, hopefully some good mojo for next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Not a bad sounding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Looks ike 2-3" accross area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 unfortunate thing is, its the gfs, gefs ggem vs ukie and euro and its ens, sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 unfortunate thing is, its the gfs, gefs ggem vs ukie and euro and its ens, sigh. Well here comes the grinch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Rainy Christmas, yippie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 unfortunate thing is, its the gfs, gefs ggem vs ukie and euro and its ens, sigh. yes but euro is having an off winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well here comes the grinch lol, i would love the gfs solution..but til i see the euro agree i keep the its not going to happen in my head...Just like with sandy. The euro was the only one to show hit after hit while the rest of the models were grabbing ray's anemometer and spinning the cups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 yes but euro is having an off winter I don't have the skill forecasts, but its clearly still the best model..That storm isn't done trending. I'm just saying i would rather the euro show it than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Rainy Christmas, yippie. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 For people south of Philly, it changes to rain and washes away any snow initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 the gefs are not as giving as the 18z op. They are colder but less precip. Looks like a good bit of them track south of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 fwiw, off the 18z GFS KPHL - 0.20", some melting (925 mb temps at 0 C and 2 m temps at 1 C for at least some of the period) KPNE - 0.16", probably all snow KPTW - 0.17", all snow KABE - 0.16", all snow KILG - 0.22", barely all snow KDOV - 0.39", all liquid anyone else I should look up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 DYLAN and TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 DYL I mean (auto correct;) ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 fwiw, off the 18z GFS KPHL - 0.20", some melting (925 mb temps at 0 C and 2 m temps at 1 C for at least some of the period) KPNE - 0.16", probably all snow KPTW - 0.17", all snow KABE - 0.16", all snow KILG - 0.22", barely all snow KDOV - 0.39", all liquid anyone else I should look up? KMPO ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 fwiw, off the 18z GFS KPHL - 0.20", some melting (925 mb temps at 0 C and 2 m temps at 1 C for at least some of the period) KPNE - 0.16", probably all snow KPTW - 0.17", all snow KABE - 0.16", all snow KILG - 0.22", barely all snow KDOV - 0.39", all liquid anyone else I should look up? keko Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Kmiv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.