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December 20-22 Major Winter Storm Part 3


Hoosier

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MKE has switched over to snow.

So far 1.58" of rain at RAC. Should change over to snow within the next hour.

I got a report from Sturtevant from a friend that it was snowing there!

Snowing in Antioch now. Should be snow here by 4:30.

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Nice little band of heavier returns sitting right over and to the SE of me in the middle of Milwaukee County. Hope it just sits and rots for awhile. NAM shuts off the precip quickly, the GFS hangs it around.

RAP really hangs it around!

Accumulating snow in McHenry already.

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Interesting little tidbit from ILN on the snow potential.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

432 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES...WINDY

CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

VIGOROUS LOW CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST

NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD

FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO INDIANA WILL

REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS

FRONT...A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME CLEARING IN

THIS CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY IS HELPING TO BRING STRONGER

WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY

HAVE BEEN SEEING 40 TO 45 KT GUSTS AS THIS LINE PASSES. THEREFORE

CONTINUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARDS FROM THIS PARTICULAR

LINE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS

EVENING. ONCE THIS OCCURS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A 45 TO 50

KT 925 HPA JET WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. IT

APPEARS THAT WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 TO 45 KTS FOR SEVERAL

HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE OVERNIGHT

HOURS. ALSO...THE COMBINATION OF RAPIDLY FALLING

TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE LOWER

TEENS TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE

AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS

EVENING. MODEL QPF VALUES CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS

TONIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM

THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE

TO BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE

FORECAST AREA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE GO INTO

AFFECT THIS EVENING AND THROUGHOUT FRIDAY ACROSS THOSE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW

MARCHES EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE FORECAST AREA SITS

UNDERNEATH WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION. THE TREND WILL BE FOR SNOW

SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY

FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW

ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING THE

STORM TOTAL TO 2 TO 4 ACROSS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ZONES...

AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE HI RES MODELS ARE

HINTING AT POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING OF SNOW DURING THE

AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH...DUE TO ENHANCEMENTS OFF

LAKE MICHIGAN. IF ONE OF THESE BANDS WERE TO SETUP AND PERSIST FOR

A FEW HOURS THEN WE COULD SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ACCUMULATION GREATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...CLOSER TO THE

LOW AND STRONGER PORTIONS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. WITH THE ONGOING

COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED WINDS TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST

LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER

ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE START OF THE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL HAVE

MOVED FAR ENOUGH FROM OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT TO CUT OFF THE

MOISTURE FETCH ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO

BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAVE OUR FORECAST AREA DRY BY

SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...BUT THE DAY

WILL BE A COLD ONE WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE

30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT...RADIATIONAL

COOLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW

20S.

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Don't know how long the power will stay on, so will keep this short. Picked up 1.99" of rain. Switched over to snow around noon and became heavy in less than 15 minutes. Full on blizzard conditions. Hard to tell for sure but I'm guessing about 4" so far. Power went out at work a little before 1 so the place shut down for the day.

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