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December 20-22 Major Winter Storm Part 3


Hoosier

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My SmartCast Summary Output 20 Dec/16Z to 21 Dec/16Z

(Full output uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm)

Davenport Region: Tracking Heavy Snow from 19Z to 00Z, with snowfall rates up to 2.0” possible during this timeframe. Winds will continue gusting to near 40MPH through 18Z, then increase up to 52 to 57MPH from 18Z to 01Z, then begin decreasing. Looking at 10.1” of additional snowfall possible for next 24 hours. In addition blizzard conditions from now til 08Z, then improving.

Traverse City Region: Looking at snow increasing in intensity after 00Z, with snowfall rates up to .8” per hour. Winds will begin increasing to 30 to 40MPH after 06Z, then 40 to 45MPH from 09Z through 16Z. Looking at snowfall accumulations of 7.8” during next 24 hours.

Rockford Region: Looking for snow to begin around 23Z, and increase rapidly through about 03Z. Will see snowfall rates of 1.9” per hour possible. Looking for around 7” possible snow accumulations. Winds will also increase around 20Z to 35 to 40MPH, then 45 to 52MPH from 00Z to 06Z, then slow decrease. Expect blizzard conditions from 03Z onward.

Snowfall accumulation Potential:

Cedar Rapids: 5.4”, Wind gusts up to 55MPH possible

Milwaukee: 5.1”

Quincy: 4.1”, Wind gusts up to 59MPH possible

Springfield: 2.5”, wind gusts up to 59MPH possible

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You went up? Wow... that had ot be a little dicey, although going down would probably scare me more ... My nephew drove to Sparta earlier and said traffic was moving around 40mph...but sometime would slow to 30mph...

Got to love what is coming into Madison..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=mkx&product=N0R&loop=yes

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still rising here but WAA is about to be cut off from the south.

Barometer is 29.11 and falling. WAA cut off from the south ....... I don't think I have ever seen that before. Winds are picking up a bit SSE@ 12 now

Sent from my iPhone

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Wow, just north of STL. Expand that bubble 50 miles south, and we are in business. Light snow here now. :snowing:

post-5865-0-94786100-1356023392_thumb.gi

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2191

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1052 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MO...FAR ERN IA...CNTRL/NRN IL

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 201652Z - 202245Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG AND EAST

OF THE MS RIVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG

SFC LOW DEEPENS AND SNOWFALL INTERACTS WITH VERY STRONG WINDS.

DISCUSSION...RECENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT A

WELL-DEFINED COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE WITH A COMPACT VORT CENTER

APPROACHING THE MS RIVER N OF ST. LOUIS. AN ASSOCIATED 985-MB SFC

LOW IS ANALYZED JUST NW OF PEORIA AT 16Z. ENHANCED CONVECTIVE

INSTABILITY AND WEAK WAA WITHIN THE BRANCH OF THE BIFURCATED WARM

CONVEYOR BELT THAT WRAPS AROUND THE CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT BANDS OF

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW W/SW OF THE SFC LOW...WHICH IS

FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD AND REACH CHICAGO BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5-1 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AN

ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE MAY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL

RATES.

THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE WRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW

WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS AT A RATE OF 0.5 TO 1 MB PER

HOUR. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY SUBTLE

VORT MAX NEAR THE APEX OF THE DRY SLOT CURLING INTO THE COMMA HEAD

NEAR CHICAGO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 45-60 KT OF 0-1-KM MEAN

FLOW EVOLVING WITHIN THE SWRN QUADRANT OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL

LIKELY BECOME MANIFESTED AT THE SFC AS WLY TO NWLY WINDS OF 35-50

MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS

THAT THE SPATIOTEMPORAL PHASING OF THESE WINDS WITH THE SNOW FOR 2-4

HOURS WILL OCCUR...CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-ZERO

VISIBILITIES.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE MS RIVER PRIOR TO

18Z...REACHING A LINE FROM NEAR ROCKFORD TO SPRINGFIELD BY 20Z...AND

A LINE EXTENDING FROM E OF ROCKFORD TO NEAR BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL BY

22Z. INITIALLY...RAIN/SLEET MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH THE PRECIPITATION

BEFORE A QUICK PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE

COOLS.

..COHEN.. 12/20/2012

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

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You went up? Wow... that had ot be a little dicey, although going down would probably scare me more ... My nephew drove to Sparta earlier and said traffic was moving around 40mph...but sometime would slow to 30mph...

Got to love what is coming into Madison..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=mkx&product=N0R&loop=yes

Ya it was stupid. 2 jack knifed semi truck just west of there. If madtown stays all snow which I think they will I really think they break 20 inches

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