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December 20-22 Major Winter Storm Part 3


Hoosier

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I still only have about 3.6", not exactly the 9-12 that was expected. There are several reports of 5-6 inches in the Cedar Rapids area, but I'm guessing spotters are not accounting for the grass layer. This stuff is caked together and is sitting on top of an inch of airy grass.

I just took a core sampled from my snowboard and got 1.03" of liquid. That's a 3.5 to 1 ratio. This horrible stuff is as wet and heavy as anything I've ever had to clean from the driveway. Just awful. Only a couple inches of this stuff on the pavement kept clogging the blower so I had to pause every couple feet to let it clear out.

The light/moderate snow currently falling is blowing around, but the 3.5 inches of concrete on the ground won't budge. This storm isn't even on the same planet as the much colder, much snowier Groundhog Day blizzard.

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i don't care what side of a landcane i am on...sure i would prefer the snowy side... i just dig the dynamics..cheers

For sure, my comment was related to the tool that posted a few hours ago saying this was run of the mill. But, yeah, I'm with you - shouldn't matter where you are at. if you're interested in weather, you have to be into this storm.

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LOT update....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1047 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

1040 AM CST

THE IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WINTER SYSTEM IS FOR THE MOST PART

UNFOLDING SO FAR AS TO PLAN...WITH NO IMMINENT CHANGES PLANNED TO

HEADLINES...TIMING...OR FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

THE MORNING SATELLITE AND HAND UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSES

REVEAL A CLASSIC MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS

SWINGING NEGATIVELY TITLED LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A DRY SLOT

HAVING ENVELOPED THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST

AREA...INCLUDING CHICAGO. ARCS OF SHOWERS...WITH A CONVECTIVE-LIKE

APPEARANCE ON RADAR...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS DRY SLOT ACROSS

WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL IL AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD INTO THE COOL

SECTOR. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED HEAVY SNOW

BAND...NOW CENTERED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO

SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL WI. THIS LINES UP PERFECTLY WITH A

SYNOPTICALLY FAVORED AREA IN THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR THE MOST

INTENSE DYNAMICS...TIGHTEST THERMAL GRADIENT...AND WIND AND

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...THE RAP CONTINUES TO ANALYZE

DEEP LIFT BEING CROSS-HAIRED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH

ZONE...OWING TO MORE EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION IN THIS AREA...AND

ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING PWATS ARE NEAR 0.70 AND INFLOW MIXING

RATIOS ARE 3.5-5.0 G/KG. VISIBILITIES UNDERNEATH THIS SNOW

BAND HAVE REGULARLY BEEN UNDER ONE HALF MILE...AND A ONE INCH PER

HOUR RATE WAS ALREADY OBSERVED IN ROCK ISLAND IL. THE SURFACE LOW

IS CENTERED NEAR LACON AND MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE PRESSURE

FALL/RISE COUPLET MAGNITUDE AT 7MB/9MB RESPECTIVELY.

SHOWER AND THUNDER POTENTIAL EAST... WHILE THE DRY SLOT HAS

MINIMIZED MUCH OF THE AREAL COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN

SEEN EARLIER THIS MORNING...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ECHOES ARE

DEVELOPING ALONG AN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS EAST

CENTRAL IL. THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 45

TO EVEN THE LOWER 50S AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL IN.

WHILE NO LOW-LEVEL CAPE IS ANALYZED BY DIAGNOSTIC GUIDANCE AS OF

10 AM...ADAPTED FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH 54F/50F DO PRODUCE AROUND

50 J/KG OF 0-3 KM CAPE THROUGH 20Z. WITH THE DYNAMIC WIND

FIELD...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WITH

THIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IN...THOUGH NO EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODELS

THAT WERE LOOKED AT PRODUCE ANYTHING LOOKING OVERLY OMINOUS.

ACROSS CHICAGO...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD

PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE

TRANSPORT UNDER DEEP HEIGHT FALLS/DIFFLUENCE OWING TO ASCENT.

RAIN TO SNOW TIMING...VARIOUS THICKNESS AND WET BULB ANALYSIS

TECHNIQUES ON THE RAP FOR PRECIP TYPE CHANGE LINE UP VERY WELL

WITH THE OBSERVED CHANGE OVER...AND THESE ARE ALL FORECAST TO

CREEP EASTWARD AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE NNW LOWERING

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. THERE HAS BEEN A REPORT OF SNOW

MIXING IN JUST NORTHWEST OF ROCKFORD AND WITH CONTINUED DYNAMIC

AND ADVECTIVE COOLING IT SHOULD REACH ROCKFORD SOON. THE CHANGE

OVER LINE SHOULD BE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED AROUND NOON AND

LIKELY SWING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS

IT APPROACHES CHICAGO. THE CHANGE SHOULD ALSO PICK UP IN

PROGRESSION SPEED IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH

THE RAPID COOLING OF THE UPPER LOW.

SNOWFALL AND WIND...WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND

THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION...THE

MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL AREA/BANDS WITH RATES OF ONE INCH OR GREATER

PER HOUR SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS OF PRECIP AND VISIBILITY

AGREE WITH THIS EVOLUTION. RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE

POSSIBLE TOWARD ROCKFORD/BELVIDERE/DIXON GIVEN SOME OF THE 40 PLUS

DBZ /NOT ASSOCIATED WITH BRIGHT BANDING/ SEEN ALREADY AND PER THE

FORECAST INSTABILITY...BOTH SLANTWISE AND EVEN UPRIGHT IN FORECAST

SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40

KT ACROSS MUCH OF IA AND MO AND WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM

AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION...THESE TYPES OF

GUSTS WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THEY ROTATE EAST INTO THE AREA WHICH

MATCHES WELL WITH THE 50-60 MPH WINDS SEEN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER

OF NAM AND GFS AND SURPRISING EVEN THE RAP. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO

SEE IF THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH OR

EAST...TO INCLUDE COUNTIES SUCH AS DEKALB AND LASALLE. ALSO WITH

AS FAR SOUTH AS SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO THE WEST AND THE EXTENT

OF THE TROWAL...THERE IS NO DOUBT IT WILL SNOW IN THE HIGH WIND

WARNING AREA OF THE SOUTHERN CWA. IT IS JUST UNCERTAIN ON HOW

INTENSE IT WILL BE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW AS A

SECONDARY IMPACT IN THE NPW.

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post-5865-0-94786100-1356023392_thumb.gi

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2191

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1052 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MO...FAR ERN IA...CNTRL/NRN IL

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 201652Z - 202245Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG AND EAST

OF THE MS RIVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG

SFC LOW DEEPENS AND SNOWFALL INTERACTS WITH VERY STRONG WINDS.

DISCUSSION...RECENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT A

WELL-DEFINED COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE WITH A COMPACT VORT CENTER

APPROACHING THE MS RIVER N OF ST. LOUIS. AN ASSOCIATED 985-MB SFC

LOW IS ANALYZED JUST NW OF PEORIA AT 16Z. ENHANCED CONVECTIVE

INSTABILITY AND WEAK WAA WITHIN THE BRANCH OF THE BIFURCATED WARM

CONVEYOR BELT THAT WRAPS AROUND THE CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT BANDS OF

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW W/SW OF THE SFC LOW...WHICH IS

FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD AND REACH CHICAGO BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5-1 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AN

ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE MAY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL

RATES.

THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE WRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW

WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS AT A RATE OF 0.5 TO 1 MB PER

HOUR. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY SUBTLE

VORT MAX NEAR THE APEX OF THE DRY SLOT CURLING INTO THE COMMA HEAD

NEAR CHICAGO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 45-60 KT OF 0-1-KM MEAN

FLOW EVOLVING WITHIN THE SWRN QUADRANT OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL

LIKELY BECOME MANIFESTED AT THE SFC AS WLY TO NWLY WINDS OF 35-50

MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS

THAT THE SPATIOTEMPORAL PHASING OF THESE WINDS WITH THE SNOW FOR 2-4

HOURS WILL OCCUR...CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-ZERO

VISIBILITIES.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE MS RIVER PRIOR TO

18Z...REACHING A LINE FROM NEAR ROCKFORD TO SPRINGFIELD BY 20Z...AND

A LINE EXTENDING FROM E OF ROCKFORD TO NEAR BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL BY

22Z. INITIALLY...RAIN/SLEET MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH THE PRECIPITATION

BEFORE A QUICK PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE

COOLS.

..COHEN.. 12/20/2012

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

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Still really coming down out there. Went from a period of moderate to heavy snow back to being really heavy.

Measured 0.9" in last 30 minutes, 12.0" total. No thunder so far this morning.

Really getting windy so this may be close to the end of being able to easily measure it. In the last hour it's really started to drift whereas before it wasn't moving around too much.

Keep it coming!!

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Like LOT's discussion.

Talking to my boss about whether or not I should take the day off, 50 to 60 mph gusts almost guarantee power outages, or because of the "smart grid" I am on, lots of power drops as ComEd switches us between grids. This is going to be interesting to watch as it unfolds.

On the bright side, my landlord cut down the trees near the house, considering them a hazard if we get high winds, he also had the large tree in the back yard cut way back, and all of the dead branches removed, so that is one less thing to worry about, as well as the tree that hangs over the driveway.

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