SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Southeast Canada has major changes. Lots of moving parts. We are so close to seeing a mecs this run for NYC metro That run would have a nasty period of snows behind the low for NYC, probably 4-8 hours or so. Everything is perfect at 500/700/850 there and the low track is great, you'd want it a tad more east but my 123 hours its likely snowing everywhere but eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That run would have a nasty period of snows behind the low for NYC, probably 4-8 hours or so. Everything is perfect at 500/700/850 there and the low track is great, you'd want it a tad more east but my 123 hours its likely snowing everywhere but eastern LI. Precip maps show snow just to the west of NYC throughout the event. If this storm shifts to the east, the area would see all snow. The city changes to snow at 132 until 138. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfsptype132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z Gefs mean. The indies aren't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I said yesterday that 9 days ago we were off by 1000 miles , 7 days ago we were off by 100 miles. Now at 4 days out we prob need the low another 75 miles east of AC and Montauk , so baby steps. Keep in mind once the Xmas system passes u will created snow cover , it will create lower temps than what the model is seeing now , it aids in the baroclinic zone for the next system If the Xmas system accumulates all the way to the coast It is likely that CAD is present because any NE wind will b blowing over fresh snow cover will keep the BL in the mid 30s at worst Is it an all snow event at the coast presentlymprob not but think back to jan 2010 how fast did you accumulate once the low got east of AC , it's a similar set up. As it is right now your not going to hav to travel very far Northern NJ ,Eastern penn , lower Hudson valley and central and northern CT to see a ft of snow. There's a lot of liquid with this system So a job 75 miles over the next 4 days is not out of the question So i believe Xmas holds the key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I said yesterday that 9 days ago we were off by 1000 miles , 7 days ago we were off by 100 miles. Now at 4 days out we prob need the low another 75 miles east of AC and Montauk , so baby steps. Keep in mind once the Xmas system passes u will created snow cover , it will create lower temps than what the model is seeing now , it aids in the baroclinic zone for the next system If the Xmas system accumulates all the way to the coast It is likely that CAD is present because any NE wind will b blowing over fresh snow cover will keep the BL in the mid 30s at worst Is it an all snow event at the coast presentlymprob not but think back to jan 2010 how fast did you accumulate once the low got east of AC , it's a similar set up. As it is right now your not going to hav to travel very far Northern NJ ,Eastern penn , lower Hudson valley and central and northern CT to see a ft of snow. There's a lot of liquid with this system So a job 75 miles over the next 4 days is not out of the question So i believe Xmas holds the key The Euro ensemble mean hasn't budged since it started showing the low hugging the coast earlier this week. All the other guidance is coming late to the party. 240 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Watch out for the baroclinic zones. It may help us if the confluence sags slightly more south from a slightly stronger 50/50 LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 6z GFS is a touch stronger with the primary, but transfers sooner than the 00z GFS did, and as a result is much colder at 850 mb than 00z was. A good bit more snow on the GFS for the northern half of nj than the 00z as well. 06 GFS is pushing out 2.2" for the 12/25, and 9.8" of snow for the 12/27 event up here at KSWF. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kswf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The Euro ensemble mean hasn't budged since it started showing the low hugging the coast earlier this week. All the other guidance is coming late to the party. 240 120 True but all the operational have over the last 4 days. A 75 mile tick off the ensembles would still b a major coupe for the euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 06 GFS is pushing out 2.2" for the 12/25, and 9.8" of snow for the 12/27 event up here at KSWF. http://www.meteor.ia...=gfsm&site=kswf Yeah we are def looking good up this way.. Pretty much every single model gives us 12"+ next week combined. Hopefully the models can lock in on a solution this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That run would have a nasty period of snows behind the low for NYC, probably 4-8 hours or so. Everything is perfect at 500/700/850 there and the low track is great, you'd want it a tad more east but my 123 hours its likely snowing everywhere but eastern LI. Meh. Backside snows seems to never work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I now have access to the Euro ensemble mean information in 6 hr increments and I can tell you that the 6z GFS and the 0z Euro ensemble mean look identical in terms of low pressure placement and 850 line placement. They both get the 850 line to roughly just east of Rt. 287 and just south of Rt. 78 in Northern New Jersey at the warmest point, which is 120 hrs on the GFS 6z run and 126 hrs. on the 0z Euro ensemble run. Amazing agreement between the 6z GFS and the Euro ensemble. At the moment, the 6z GFS looks 100% accurate based upon the latest computer model guidance. Also, as far as the following weekend storm goes for next Saturday and Sunday, the Euro ensemble mean is quite bullish with this storm as well, but it keeps it further off shore and as a result, MUCH colder than the Euro operational run, which is a fantastic sign if you want another snowstorm in our area next weekend also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just to illustrate how close NYC is to a MECS HPN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Meh. Backside snows seems to never work out some storms do work out...I can't remember any recent ones though...I can remember a few December storms that gave us a back slapping...There was 12/15/1968...5.2"...12/22/1967...1.0"...12/11/1992...1" ...12/12/1993...3"...2002 had more snow on the back side in NYC...It can happen...But will it?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The euro would def be 4-8 before any change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The euro would def be 4-8 before any change over The snow maps throw about 6-8" for the area in addition to the 4" that falls on XMAS. Just a small adjustment and the entire tri-state area sees 8-14" from the second event alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z gfs going to be ugly. Primary is up near Cincy. Going to be a warm run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hr 108 secondary over Phl. Rain all the way back to st college Upstate Ny is the big winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hr 114 low over NYC. Rain all the way up to orh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 YAWWWWWWWWWWWWWN , not cutting a storm to the lakes in the face of a block , follow the Euro ensembles the Secondary will form of the Va coast and then we will argue over 75 miles . Again , not goin to the lakes period . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just from my personal experience having lived in Buffalo for 6 years, heavy snow events almost never occur in BUF when SLP re-develop or head over PHL. Also, you cannot use blocking as a reason for the storm not to cut. This is an Archambault event. NAO is quickly rising leading up to this event. YAWWWWWWWWWWWWWN , not cutting a storm to the lakes in the face of a block , follow the Euro ensembles the Secondary will form of the Va coast and then we will argue over 75 miles . Again , not goin to the lakes period . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just from my personal experience having lived in Buffalo for 6 years, heavy snow events almost never occur in BUF when SLP re-develop or head over PHL. Also, you cannot use blocking as a reason for the storm not to cut. This is an Archambault event. NAO is quickly rising leading up to this event. NAO is rising?..do you see what I see?..there is a big block there..unless we are seeing different maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAO rising slightly. Still negative as of now, but 6z GFS goes positive before event. This would argue less blocking, and more of a track closer to the coast. Still five days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAO is rising?..do you see what I see?..there is a big block there..unless we are seeing different maps There is no confluence this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just from my personal experience having lived in Buffalo for 6 years, heavy snow events almost never occur in BUF when SLP re-develop or head over PHL. Also, you cannot use blocking as a reason for the storm not to cut. This is an Archambault event. NAO is quickly rising leading up to this event. Not sure if I deleted by accidcent , so here it is again . The NAO rises when a storm comes up the coast . I am not buying the 12z yet because I believe the main feature heads through the Tenn Valley and Secondaries off the VA coast . Question was Where do you think the main feature goes and where does it Secondary ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Steve D, JB and DT all just posted and said this run doest make any sense at all lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Steve D, JB and DT all just posted and said this run doest make any sense at all lol. No confluence...no snow Simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Steve D, JB and DT all just posted and said this run doest make any sense at all lol. The good news is the NOGAPS did not make any significant shift westward...we'll wait and see what the GEM/Euro do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GEM looks way east of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GEM looks way east of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just from my personal experience having lived in Buffalo for 6 years, heavy snow events almost never occur in BUF when SLP re-develop or head over PHL. Also, you cannot use blocking as a reason for the storm not to cut. This is an Archambault event. NAO is quickly rising leading up to this event. Agree about the blocking. There is a pervasive myth that a Canadian Maritimes cutoff means a primary can't approach the Lakes. It's not true and partly due to the conceptualization of weather systems as objects that bump into each other like bowling balls. It's true that the "block" will probably prevent the primary low from surging to Montreal. The upper level structure will likely encouragement SLP somewhere along the Atlantic coast south of SNE. But the primary surface and mid level lows CAN move into the Lakes and advect warm air into our region before coastal redevelopment. In light of other guidance and previous runs, I think the 12z GFS is too far NW. But it might not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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