Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Back to the Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Gfs is really speeding this storm up...hr 126 trying to flip back to snow. But storm is pulling away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 850's get warm but the surface temps are cold near the coast. Icestorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 850's get warm but the surface temps are cold near the coast. Icestorm? Not the coast rains after front end snow. Nw jersey gets ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 850's get warm but the surface temps are cold near the coast. Icestorm? I don't see anyway this can be an ice storm near the coast. Nothing has changed from what I originally called, a system that will do to NYC what Thursday's system did to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Snow to ice to rain, possibly back to snow on the 0z GFS. Heavy snow well inland. Seems reasonable. A major winter storm regardless of specific track. Still a large potential error 5 days out. But the all snow or all rain scenarios are not favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't see anyway this can be an ice storm near the coast. Nothing has changed from what I originally called, a system that will do to NYC what Thursday's system did to Chicago. What was the change there? I haven't followed that one too much but I did notice there were some short range changes for Chicago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NOGAPS looks OTS, definitely want to keep seeing it stay out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 0z Ukie is east of the GFS. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=120 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 0z Ukie is east of the GFS. http://meteocentre.c...&fixhh=1&hh=120 http://meteocentre.c...&fixhh=1&hh=144 It looks like it has one hell of a hit from the 1st storm, I cannot see any precip maps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It looks like it has one hell of a hit from the 1st storm, I cannot see any precip maps though. The 1st storm is really amped up but cold enough for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 We could surely have something to root for winter storms just remember the hurricane victims are taken care of properly. Thats my main concern especially the rockaways and all the south shore towns hard it areas.catch22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS still nails areas of the far NW with an all snow event.. Nice to see it showing up consistently now. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 LGA is snow/sleet/ rain on the GFS http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KLGA&model=gfs&time=2012122200&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 HPC http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I know its notorious for its inconsistency, but the NOGAPs is also well-noted for its tendency to be overamped. The fact that the 0z run just spit this storm out to sea has to at least increase confidence that an ideal track is still a viable option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 1st storm is really amped up but cold enough for our area. Let me ask you something...how do you know it is cold enough...I see surface maps at 72 hours and 96 hours and nothing in between...how do you know the column on the UKMET is cold enough for snow throughout the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Let me ask you something...how do you know it is cold enough...I see surface maps at 72 hours and 96 hours and nothing in between...how do you know the column on the UKMET is cold enough for snow throughout the event? By judging by the track of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 By judging by the track of the storm. So you are basically taking a guess at the temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So you are basically taking a guess at the temperatures? Well it looks further south of the GFS and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I do not think I have ever seen the GFS do such a nice job of drawing the water equivalent snow total isopleths...with 5 mm on southern LI and 15mm on northern LI through hour 120...for a global model, that took an effort / per the maps on the Canadien website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That Euro run is really iffy, it looks like big front end snows at a glance but I am defiinitely worried about a SE flow at the surface it appears to show. Its hard to say at this range, you can get a subtle kink or CAD type feature as we did in the January 87 storm that turns the winds just enough to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro looks a lot colder than GFS doesnt it? at least at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That Euro run is really iffy, it looks like big front end snows at a glance but I am defiinitely worried about a SE flow at the surface it appears to show. Its hard to say at this range, you can get a subtle kink or CAD type feature as we did in the January 87 storm that turns the winds just enough to the NE. This is in reference to the 2nd (major) storm, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro looks a lot colder than GFS doesnt it? at least at 850. Yeah its easily cold enough at 850 from 96-120 for snow and it does show a CAD signature but the positioning of the high coupled with the SW direction the storm approaches from causes a SE wind appearance in the isobars, its tough to say at this range how accurate that is. If we shifted this Euro run 100 miles SE its entirely snow for everyone probablty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 With the PNA continuing to trend less amplified on every run, that can only help our chances to keeping the storm weaker across the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 6z GFS is a touch stronger with the primary, but transfers sooner than the 00z GFS did, and as a result is much colder at 850 mb than 00z was. A good bit more snow on the GFS for the northern half of nj than the 00z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Southeast Canada has major changes. Lots of moving parts. We are so close to seeing a mecs this run for NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z Nogaps is close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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