WeatherX Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Nude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 by 135 its moving out after about 1.0in+ QPF for the area. 850's in the 3 hr panel don't make it N or south shore of LI Nassau county westward. Looks mostly snow for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 This is all frozen NW of I-95 on this run. Some brief icing issues near I-95 for a bit, but it's mostly snow NW of I-95. Beautiful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 NYC area crushed. That's a near perfect mid-level evolution and surface low track. The s/w really waits until the perfect moment to mature... timing the PVA and strongest SLP deepening in the sweet spot east of NJ. That's a classic looking run. Unfortunately the trof will have to behave in order to achieve something like this. If it goes wild too early, the coast is toast. Chances are we see a less than perfect scenario. But we also have the chance for xmas snow beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 NYC area crushed. That's a near perfect mid-level evolution and surface low track. The s/w really waits until the perfect moment to mature... timing the PVA and strongest SLP deepening in the sweet spot east of NJ. That's a classic looking run. Unfortunately the trof will have to behave in order to achieve something like this. If it goes wild too early, the coast is toast. Chances are we see a less than perfect scenario. But we also have the chance for xmas snow beforehand. I'm content with xmass snow...then a front end thump to crap the next day, if I had my choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Not to worry. Those instant weather snow depth maps treat LI as if it were the Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wow. GFS tosses a . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 At this point you would want to see the low a little more suppressed than the GFS is showing since it has been underestimating heights in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 :stun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 :stun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 A bit off topic but how often do we luck out with snow around these parts on boxing day? Wouldn't mind a GFS solution, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Classic snowstorm on the GFS/DGEX... Hopefully this time it actually verifies and not one of those medium range snowstorms that end up as rain or a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Classic snowstorm on the GFS/DGEX... Hopefully this time it actually verifies and not one of those medium range snowstorms that end up as rain or a mix. shocked that no one posted the 18Z NOGAPS...its a classic, hours 126-144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 A bit off topic but how often do we luck out with snow around these parts on boxing day? Wouldn't mind a GFS solution, that's for sure. well on Dec 5 2002 and 2003 we had fairly substantial snow events, same with Dec 19 (1995 and 2009), March 12 (1993, 1888)...and of course December 26 (1947 and 2010)...there are others but you get the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 A classic bust, it bombs out offshore and leaves everybody crying... ? This is the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Heading back to the city tonight until late January. Great to see two events to track and be part of, from Christmas onto the days after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I just saw the 18z GFS.. wow, very classic looking run. Easily a KU storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 well on Dec 5 2002 and 2003 we had fairly substantial snow events, same with Dec 19 (1995 and 2009), March 12 (1993, 1888)...and of course December 26 (1947 and 2010)...there are others but you get the point Yeah I remember the 2002/03 snow events...my question pertains to just boxing day. Seems like it snowed big only 2 other times on that date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 shocked that no one posted the 18Z NOGAPS...its a classic, hours 126-144 I hardly place my trust in the NOGAPS, once in a while it gets the right solution this far out but with the other runs is way off. Still, interesting to see that most of the models agree on some sort of a moderate-significant snowfall affecting at least parts of the area (ECM had it west/north of NYC), keeping in mind it's in the medium range and can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ? This is the 18z run Whoops, was on E-Wall and I guess the link I clicked on wasn't the updated one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18z GFS Subtract the X-MAS snow and it's still decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18z GFS Subtract the X-MAS snow and it's still decent. The 18z GFS is just about the best case scenario, moderate Christmas snow and heavy snow with this one. It's hard not to get excited seeing the models supporting the coastal low but I'm still concerned that it could end up closer to the coast with I-95 p-type issues. One thing to note, the ECM ensembles have been consistent with the track - inland start to coastal hugger - for the last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 18z GFS is just about the best case scenario, moderate Christmas snow and heavy snow with this one. It's hard not to get excited seeing the models supporting the coastal low but I'm still concerned that it could end up closer to the coast with I-95 p-type issues. One thing to note, the ECM ensembles have been consistent with the track - inland start to coastal hugger - for the last 3 days. I think it can be argued that they've been shifting east. The 12z run mean was 50-100 miles farther east/northeast valid 06z Thursday 12/27..and colder as well. But I think that's just a result of there being less amplified/wrapped up solutions as the models start to get a handle on the block. Speaking of which the GEFS have been terrific the last week. They were the first to sniff out the Aleutian/Alaskan ridge breaking off the Pac ridge and sliding east into Central Canada. The Euro and ensembles wanted no part of it, but finally caved yesterday. This is a huge feature..changes the pattern completely. They have also been leading the way with the ULL underneath the block...so we'll see if they win both of those. Such an exciting look here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think it can be argued that they've been shifting east. The 12z run mean was 50-100 miles farther east/northeast valid 06z Thursday 12/27..and colder as well. But I think that's just a result of there being less amplified/wrapped up solutions as the models start to get a handle on the block. Speaking of which the GEFS have been terrific the last week. They were the first to sniff out the Aleutian/Alaskan ridge breaking off the Pac ridge and sliding east into Central Canada. The Euro and ensembles wanted no part of it, but finally caved yesterday. This is a huge feature..changes the pattern completely. They have also been leading the way with the ULL underneath the block...so we'll see if they win both of those. Such an exciting look here. Great stuff and gives the weenies an idea of the types of things we should be looking for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Great stuff and gives the weenies an idea of the types of things we should be looking for... It's coming together very nicely right now..and doing so pretty quickly. The following three maps, from left to right, show the H5 height anomalies and height contours at 0hr,24hr, and 84 hr with the main features circled in yellow that I talked about above. Also of equal importance is the vortex that gets caught underneath this block (you can see it on those maps in SE Canada). Things look pretty good into early January too with the Pacific pattern changing. A little off topic, but this block looks to hold..and I think we'll start looking at Jan 2-5 potential in just a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 1st ten days of January can be quite fun. I'd argue we'd get something historic given the classic blocking pattern and ridge amplification out west (via downstream). Maybe even long duration as the block is there and the sfc low can easily can get captured and you know, give us the quite dreamy situaton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think it can be argued that they've been shifting east. The 12z run mean was 50-100 miles farther east/northeast valid 06z Thursday 12/27..and colder as well. But I think that's just a result of there being less amplified/wrapped up solutions as the models start to get a handle on the block. Speaking of which the GEFS have been terrific the last week. They were the first to sniff out the Aleutian/Alaskan ridge breaking off the Pac ridge and sliding east into Central Canada. The Euro and ensembles wanted no part of it, but finally caved yesterday. This is a huge feature..changes the pattern completely. They have also been leading the way with the ULL underneath the block...so we'll see if they win both of those. Such an exciting look here. There has been a minor shift to the east, but overall they've just about been the most consistent with the track at least from what I've seen, the GEFS mean wasn't bad but also had some east/west variations as seen with the 12z vs. 18z run. It has done an excellent job with showing the Alaskan block extending into Canada though as you mentioned, which some of the other models as well as the OP GFS handled differently with the Alaskan block staying way up north while the ULL from today's event went east. If I remember correctly there were also some early CMC runs that had the AK block behaving in a similar way. I definitely agree though, this is the most exciting picture I've seen since 2010-11... it's been a long time since there was a block like this. Even if this one is more of a mix/rain event there's still enough potentials down the road into early January that I'd be surprised if we get to mid January without at least one solid snowstorm (as in moderate-heavy snowfall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Gfs going to be further west this run...over running snows starting at hr 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Good front end dump. But this run will hug coast. Hr 120 coast is rain. Just outside 95 sleeting/ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.