ag3 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's warm with both storms though, which is unfortunate. I was hoping we could at least get something for Xmas. For xmas, the 850 line is well south of LI. The 32 degree line is on top of NYC as the precip enters, and by the time nearly .25" has fallen, the 32 degree line is just north of NYC. How is that "warm"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 For xmas, the 850 line is well south of LI. The 32 degree line is on top of NYC as the precip enters, and by the time nearly .25" has fallen, the 32 degree line is just north of NYC. How is that "warm"? Soundings are brutal al. Look in white xmass thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 For xmas, the 850 line is well south of LI. The 32 degree line is on top of NYC as the precip enters, and by the time nearly .25" has fallen, the 32 degree line is just north of NYC. How is that "warm"? You obviously haven't seen the soundings. It's about 40 degrees at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You obviously haven't seen the soundings. It's about 40 degrees at the surface. At what hour? Can you post the sounding for hour 84 and 87 for KNYC or KLGA? Hour 90, 95% of the precip is done. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 At what hour? Can you post the sounding for hour 84 and 87 for KNYC or KLGA? Hour 90, 95% of the precip is done. Thanks in advance. It was posted by Mohawk in another thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 At what hour? Can you post the sounding for hour 84 and 87 for KNYC or KLGA? Hour 90, 95% of the precip is done. Thanks in advance. 0z tues its 33 degrees, by 6 z it's 38..(Half the precip falls) TUE 00Z 25-DEC 0.9 0.3 1018 70 28 0.00 554 539 TUE 06Z 25-DEC 3.6 -1.6 1013 90 98 0.18 550 540 Between 6z and 12z the other half falls, with temps from 38-39 TUE 12Z 25-DEC 4.3 -0.3 1010 95 38 0.18 548 540 Not saying it's correct, just pointing out what it shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 0z tues its 33 degrees, by 6 z it's 38..(Half the precip falls) Between 6z and 12z the other half falls, with temps from 38-39 Not saying it's correct, just pointing out what it shows... I get it, but the euro has weird surface temps. Look at the post I just made in the Xmas thread to show that. If you had an hour 87 sounding, it would read 32 degrees at KLGA while KJFK, KEWR and KNYC would be 35+ degrees. Just doesnt happen like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The 12z ECMWF snow maps have around 6 inches of snow for I-95 N and W before it changes over to rain. Nice trends by the ECMWF which showed all rain yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You obviously haven't seen the soundings. It's about 40 degrees at the surface. Don't even bother looking at Euro surface temps, they are always too warm, that Christmas event would be snow everywhere as of all the model tracks now, we'll see highs maybe of 40 on Xmas eve and be down in the low 30s when it starts snowing overnight with dewpoints probably in the teens and low 20s before the precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The Euro ensemble mean consolidates the low to 996mb near Atlantic City at 138hrs. Prior to this point the 850 line runs from just north of NYC through Southeast NY and Eastern PA, then as the low consolidates to 996mb near Atlantic City at 138 hrs, the 850 line starts crashing toward the coast. At 138 hrs it runs from about 10 miles west of NYC in Northern New Jersey, down to about Trenton, then due south. At 144 hrs it has a sub 996 low centered near Eastern Long Island, with the 850 line running due south from the Eastern tip of Long Island, with at least 3 inches of snow having fallen in the previous 6 hours. It then takes the low to Cape Cod at 150 hrs, with light snow continuing to fall until Thursday late afternoon or early evening. It also has at least .3 inches of precip for the storm the following Saturday and Sunday throughout our area. Interestingly also, the JMA at day 8 has a very juiced up system heading in our direction from the mid-west, with lots of Gulf moisture streaming north. It is very interesting because the Euro ensembles are quite bullish with this potential and the JMA's verification scores at day 8 are very good and in fact are almost as good as the Euro's currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Could this be a 12/25/02 rain to snow scenario? The Euro ensemble mean consolidates the low to 996mb near Atlantic City at 138hrs. Prior to this point the 850 line goes runs from just north of NYC through Southeast NY and Eastern PA, then as the low consolidates to 996mb near Atlantic City at 138 hrs, the 850 line starts crashing toward the coast. At 138 hrs it runs from about 10 miles west of NYC in Northern New Jersey, down to about Trenton, then due south. At 144 hrs it has a sub 996 low centered near Eastern Long Island, with the 850 line running due south from the Eastern tip of Long Island, with at least 3 inches of snow having fallen in the previous 6 hours. It then takes the low to Cape Cod at 150 hrs, with light snow continuing to fall until Thursday late afternoon or early evening. It also has at least .3 inches of precip for the storm the following Saturday and Sunday throughout our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Here is the JMA for the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Could this be a 12/25/02 rain to snow scenario? The system looks too fast advancing from this area up into Maine right now but it has potential to be a back end snow producer, remember, the key for back ends snows here is vertically stacked at 500-850mb, slow movement from here up into New England, and the low position has to pretty much be anywhere between 030-140 degrees from NYC, if its straight north we'll usually downslope or dryslot behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Don't even bother looking at Euro surface temps, they are always too warm, that Christmas event would be snow everywhere as of all the model tracks now, we'll see highs maybe of 40 on Xmas eve and be down in the low 30s when it starts snowing overnight with dewpoints probably in the teens and low 20s before the precip moves in. i'm pretty sold on all of us getting a snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Could this be a 12/25/02 rain to snow scenario? 12/25/02 is actually the #1 analog right now on CIPS for the NE sector at 120 hours and is is the #2 analog over the OH/TN Valley. 1/3/96 is also showing up all over, interestingly enough that event wasnt big for the coast but it set up the monster event a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Mount Holly starting to honk: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yeah I'm somewhat more excited about the New Year's Day storm with the fresh supply of cold air coming in right before it. But still 11 days out so not getting my hopes up just yet. 12/25/02 is actually the #1 analog right now on CIPS for the NE sector at 120 hours and is is the #2 analog over the OH/TN Valley. 1/3/96 is also showing up all over, interestingly enough that event wasnt big for the coast but it set up the monster event a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Mount Holly starting to honk: http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off where's the honking? very little mention of snow in that discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 where's the honking? very little mention of snow in that discussion. They mention the ice possibilities, and until now they have been trying to avoid increasing increasing wintry pop chances, as some guidance was still inland. That's not quite the case anymore, and I believe that through the weekend, especially if we see a shift further SE in the guidance, they'll be getting more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Soundings are brutal al. Look in white xmass thread I'm not seeing this warmth. I checked the twisterdata soundings and the plymouth text soundings and the NYC - Edison area has wet bulb temps at or below freezing for the duration of the event. Surface temps might be in the mid to upper 30s for a brief while right along the immediate shoreline, but even there, as progged, they would cool to the lower 30s in snow. In terms of accumulations at this point, locations just inland are still favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12/25/02 is actually the #1 analog right now on CIPS for the NE sector at 120 hours and is is the #2 analog over the OH/TN Valley. 1/3/96 is also showing up all over, interestingly enough that event wasnt big for the coast but it set up the monster event a few days later. can you post a link to the analog site, please! EDIT: Found it - 1/7/96 is on the list at 120hrs as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm not seeing this warmth. I checked the twisterdata soundings and the plymouth text soundings and the NYC - Edison area has wet bulb temps at or below freezing for the duration of the event. Surface temps might be in the mid to upper 30s for a brief while right along the immediate shoreline, but even there, as progged, they would cool to the lower 30s in snow. In terms of accumulations at this point, locations just inland are still favored. Thanks eduggs. Looks like a white xmass coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z gfs is going to be further east this run. Prob going to be more frozen this time. 1000 mb low hugging the Delmarva hr 123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z gfs is going to be further east this run. Prob going to be more frozen this time. 1000 mb low hugging the Delmarva hr 123 Yeah the mid and upper levels are weaker and more positively tilted, at least initially. Could be a cold solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Coast flirts with mix... Hr 129 everyone from Gsp west getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Mother of God. We get hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 132 Ccb love...pretty much all you have to say. Would love to lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z GFS definitely looks colder and farther east. Most of NJ is getting hit hard by 129 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wow great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.