isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Can't wait to look at the soundings on the 12z GFS. Should be interesting to see the differences between KNYC and points just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z Ukie is really nice http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=120 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The track of the 850 mb the city and coast would front end thump, then dry slot verbatim on gfs That isn't too bad. Does it go back to snow at all, or would it be thump, dry slot/drizzle, over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z GGEM is OTS . http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I can't help but think, if we get even the slightest snowcover on Christmas and it holds, could it potentially impact the temperature in areas with BL issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 That isn't too bad. Does it go back to snow at all, or would it be thump, dry slot/drizzle, over? Yes. But back end snow off a hugger seems to never work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Can't wait to look at the soundings on the 12z GFS. Should be interesting to see the differences between KNYC and points just inland. This is an ugly run for much of NNJ as the heaviest precip falls as ZR/IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 This is an ugly run for much of NNJ as the heaviest precip falls as ZR/IP. i could see this being an ice storm if the low stays to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z GFS track would not be all that great even for us inland folks, terrible ratios per the bukfit 121226/1800Z 138 06011KT 30.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 121226/2100Z 141 05014KT 30.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 121227/0000Z 144 05023KT 28.5F SNOW 4:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.160 4:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 121227/0300Z 147 04019KT 30.8F SNOW 4:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.174 4:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0 121227/0600Z 150 04025KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.064 4:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.41 0| 0|100 121227/0900Z 153 03021KT 29.6F SNPL 5:1| 0.9|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.185 4:1| 2.2|| 0.08|| 0.07|| 0.60 78| 22| 0 121227/1200Z 156 02022KT 24.7F SNOW 7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.186 5:1| 3.5|| 0.08|| 0.07|| 0.78 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 121227/1500Z 159 36019KT 27.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 5:1| 3.8|| 0.08|| 0.07|| 0.82 100| 0| 0 121227/1800Z 162 36014KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 5:1| 3.8|| 0.08|| 0.07|| 0.82 0| 0| 0 121227/2100Z 165 32010KT 29.0F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 5:1| 3.9|| 0.08|| 0.07|| 0.84 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 i could see this being an ice storm if the low stays to our south There is some pretty good low level cold air drainage. I think ultimately there will be cooler mid level temperatures if the GFS verified aloft with the coastal transfer probably occurring a bit faster thanks to the confluence to the north. That being said there is definitely the potential for the mid levels to warm pretty rapidly while the surface stays cool, mainly in the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z GEFS Transfer occurs just southeast of Atlantic City. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12132.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Classic mid level WAA and low level cold on this GFS sounding over Northern NJ during the best lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 i could see this being an ice storm if the low stays to our south It looks like the problem will be the surface high holding on to the north while there is still enough of a SE Ridge for the low to run inside ORF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 This is an ugly run for much of NNJ as the heaviest precip falls as ZR/IP. Yea, I actually didn't look at the 850 maps until now. The 850 low passes over south central New Jersey, which indeed suggests an ice storm in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The Canadian is a whiff, but I am certainly not complaining about this look at all. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GGEM being a whiff certainly raises eyebrows especially with its bias....Maybe we'll see a trend with the EURO today, all comes down to the x-mas storm and if it helps hold confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 On the 12z GGEM it appears that the reason why it's a swing in the miss is because the Christmas storm is quite amped up and doesn't get out of the way in time to allow heights to rebuild over SE Canada. Otherwise it appears that we would be looking at a nice Miller A as the system dives all the way into the northern gulf. If the Christmas system can speed up some or the 27th storm can slow down enough, we might be sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yea, I actually didn't look at the 850 maps until now. The 850 low passes over south central New Jersey, which indeed suggests an ice storm in the interior. I think some portion of the interior Northeast should see icing with this. In the past with lows encountering a ridge building down east of us from the north there have been icy transition zones. The ridging near Nova Scotia is keeping the low close enough to the area to have mixing problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Still have probably until late Monday or so before we know what the track of this system will actually be. Right now things look warm and crappy on the GFS, but a slight shift east would be a decent storm for most folks in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 On the 12z GGEM it appears that the reason why it's a swing in the miss is because the Christmas storm is quite amped up and doesn't get out of the way in time to allow heights to rebuild over SE Canada. Otherwise it appears that we would be looking at a nice Miller A as the system dives all the way into the northern gulf. If the Christmas system can speed up some or the 27th storm can slow down enough, we might be sitting pretty. That is almost certainly why it whiffs. The NOGAPS is also quite amped with the Christmas storm which may be why its far SE as well with the 26th-27th event. I tend to find the American models are poor with SW flow events beyond 48-60 hours which may very well mean the Euro/GGEM/NOGAPS idea of the X-Mas event being stronger are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The Canadian is a whiff, but I am certainly not complaining about this look at all. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f144.gif That's quite a powerful storm on the Canadian. I think it's safe to say that the "Lakes Cutter" option is now off the table. The main concern will be the confluence to our north and how it interacts with the storm after Christmas. With Such a powerful block over central Canada, I think the GFS depiction of the upper air pattern is correct and the Euro will be playing catch up. We need the primary storm to track further south so the secondary forms further south and east. If the models continue to trend stronger with the confluence, that indeed may happen. There is a lot of time left for things to go our way. With that said I like the pattern moving forward...it certainly looks to be a cold and potentially stormy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 That is almost certainly why it whiffs. The NOGAPS is also quite amped with the Christmas storm which may be why its far SE as well with the 26th-27th event. I tend to find the American models are poor with SW flow events beyond 48-60 hours which may very well mean the Euro/GGEM/NOGAPS idea of the X-Mas event being stronger are correct. Thanks for the positive feedback on my amateur analysis lol. In any event, I think we can still cash in on the second storm with a stronger Christmas storm as long as either that system speeds up and or the second system slows down some which would hopefully allow heights to rebuild fast enough. It's a really nice setup on the GGEM if we could just get that first one out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Again I prefer models more OTS than inland like the Euro shows because they always tend to end up further west once the storm begins to form. At least with a storm offshore, there's always the chance for some snow, once the low stays inland, our snow hopes are pretty much gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z GFS was a nice run for areas up this way... Fun times ahead! http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KMGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Again I prefer models more OTS than inland like the Euro shows because they always tend to end up further west once the storm begins to form. At least with a storm offshore, there's always the chance for some snow, once the low stays inland, our snow hopes are pretty much gone. You have to look at more than that. Why it's out to sea matters. If the Christmas wave doesn't get out of the way in time it's game, set, match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro looks similar to the gfs. Snow on the front end for NYC ..we need another bump south an east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The Euro is NOT WARM. Very odd solution on the ECMWF, if I am reading these maps correctly, the surface low reforms right over NJ at hr 144 yet the 850 freezing line is 100 miles or more offshore, cutting through Cape Cod. I would think the coast would almost be dry slotted in this setup. Then the storm races off to the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's colder and slightly further east than the 0z run. It's warm with both storms though, which is unfortunate. I was hoping we could at least get something for Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 According to the stormvista maps, the freezing line is near the coast for the xmas storm. Major BL issues for the Xmass storm, but further inland looks to fair ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I quote Wxrisk.com in fact the 12z GFS and EURO models for 7PM DEC 26 132 looks darn close to identical. all OF northwest VA would stay SNOW and there would be more ICE over far nw NC and all of sw ...west central and N VA on this run of the euro. ALL of VA EAST of I-81 goes over to rain.. DCA BWI PHl central and southern NJ would see snow to ice / rain then snow at the end... Interior se PA and central MD would stay all SNOW... Hagerstown Reading Allentown and all of nw NJ. se NEW ENGLAND see a change over to rain but inland all of central and southern new England and most of central and eastern 2/3 of NY state get crushed ...so does northern WVA and central and eastern OH and eastern KY Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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