snywx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It doesn't get any better than the 0z GFS for us inland folk.. Pretty much buries us with a combined 12"+ from the Xmas event & 12/27 event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GGEM is a swing and a miss, at this range better that than a cutter I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yes, snywx, looks like here in Sussex county sitting pretty right now....even for the first event. It doesn't get any better than the 0z GFS for us inland folk.. Pretty much buries us with a combined 12"+ from the Xmas event & 12/27 event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 lol.. May I ask why you think this or is it cause you live 50 miles south of the current heavy snow axis shown on the 0z GFS.. smh Not really. It's more about the reality of the blocking. A Central Canada Block will shove the secondary to a more traditional path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Not really. It's more about the reality of the blocking. A Central Canada Block will shove the secondary to a more traditional path. Ah ok cool story.. So what is this "traditional path" you speak of ? Im curious now lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro is amped and west. It is super confused, low essentially hits the block and now the euro is struggling. Does not make much sense in the evolution of the event. I think it will continue to adjust and respond to the block. Granted this run might still turn out ok, but I doubt the primary remains that long and cuts right into the block. Secondary development should happen sooner. If the christmas storm is any indication of the euro, it will come south also with this event. Euro has been struggling lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro is much better with the Christmas storm...looks like its trying to give us snow at 12z 12/25. The next event is west, eventually transfer to the coast...but too warm. Much better look than 12z but still a lot of work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro is much better with the Christmas storm...looks like its trying to give us snow at 12z 12/25. The next event is west, eventually transfer to the coast...but too warm. Much better look than 12z but still a lot of work to do. The trend is good this evening. It's a comfort to know that the usually amped up GGEM went OTS. Once again, and like I've been saying the past couple days, the Christmas storm has peaked my interests, and I think it will surprise a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks odd, but improved from 12z..We have to maintain some type of confluence between the block and the ridge out ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro still came quite a bit east from where it was, there would likely be major front end snows in this scenario just looking at the thermal gradient alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro is much better with the Christmas storm...looks like its trying to give us snow at 12z 12/25. The next event is west, eventually transfer to the coast...but too warm. Much better look than 12z but still a lot of work to do. Complete horse crap it cuts the primary right into the block, secondary development will occur sooner and the northern movement and waa will be halted sooner. Euro continues to struggle with this pattern buts makes significant adjustments each run. Just look how far s and e it has come with the christmas shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro still came quite a bit east from where it was, there would likely be major front end snows in this scenario just looking at the thermal gradient alone. Wunderground weenie snow maps paint a very snowy scene for NW NJ & SE NY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Ah ok cool story.. So what is this "traditional path" you speak of ? Im curious now lol.. Traditional Miller B Path. From Norfolk, VA going NE to East of the Delmarva then going ENE to the south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 European ensemble mean looks good for the Christmas Eve/Christmas morning storm, but the Wednesday/Thursday storm it tracks the low right to NYC, so it is just slightly warmer than the operational run. Very similar though, and would switch everyone over to snow as it passes by. The ensemble mean is also making a bit o a bigger deal out of the next Saturday and Sunday, the 29th, and 30th system, showing. 10-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GEFS looks really good for both the 26th/27th storm and the January 2 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Do not worry about temps or a rain snow line 6 days out , look at where you just came from on the euro. Monday the center was up over Madison Wisconsin. Wed it had the center was up over Dayton Ohio. This morning the center is over NYC , and that's after it finally shows a secondary off the VA coast. That's 1200 miles east in 5 days This is in line with its ensembles and most other global models. huge improvement. Not to mention its now in line with the Xmas system. Plenty of time to sort detes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I now have the Euro ensemble mean with the goodies in 6 hour increments and I can tell you that the 6z GFS looks nearly identical to the 0z Euro ensemble mean. The Euro ensemble mean is slightly warmer than the operational run and puts the storm in nearly the exact same spot as the 6z GFS, very near NYC. It would be a snow to rain/ice, then back to snow scenario for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 HPC is over LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 HPC is over LI Nice placement for a good thump for inland areas.. Snow/Rain/Snow for coastal sections. Fun times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Nice placement for a good thump for inland areas.. Snow/Rain/Snow for coastal sections. Fun times ahead For 5-6 days out I am sure the track will change a lot, as will the models. I'd be happy not being in the jackpot right now, since the track will change. If this were only 2-3 days away, it'd be a different story IMO. Curious to see what the model runs at 12Z and later at 00Z do with the potential system. Hopefully some locales in the area get some wintry precip from this storm in 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS is close and borderline for the 26-27 event. The surface low actually redevelops off the M/A coast but there's a strong mid level warm air advection push. We can work with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Coastal takes over at 132 near Atlantic City on the GFS. Different than the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Hr 132 990 just east of acy. Looks like coast goes to rain. Just outside 95 is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 At 138 hours the 925mb low tracks from ACY to Montauk. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Really nice run for near by suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 4 days ago we were 1000 miles apart - today we r less than 100 with 5 days to go , lets see when the xmas system exits if its able to introduce some low level cold air that the models have yet to sniff out . 510 thicknesses as it is just over the border at this time , so a little nudge south with that is that will be needed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The track of the 850 mb the city and coast would front end thump, then dry slot verbatim on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 At 138 hours the 925mb low tracks from ACY to Montauk. Not bad. Close to the traditional Miller B Path. Shift that 30-50 miles SE and then the coast is golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z Nogaps for the big storm. Big shift from the 0z run where it was way inland. https://www.fnmoc.na...tau=108&set=All https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&dtg=2012122112∏=prpτ=120&set=All ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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