IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It was an honest mistake on my part. I'm well aware that QPF stands for Quantative Precipitation Forecast. I meant a high end precip event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Flurries just started here 27/18 Edit: Meant to post this in the obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It was an honest mistake on my part. I'm well aware that QPF stands for Quantative Precipitation Forecast. I meant a high end precip event. Just playing around dude. Common mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Should see the rain shortly, 34/27 in East Brunswick. Going to be a rather miserable day with a cold heavy rain and gusty winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Both the 12z Canadian and UKMET now keep NW NJ on the cold side of the 850 line for the entire storm. People who read your blog are going to assume that all the weather models are wrong because you claim that they show all snow. Unless they are aware you are just misinterpreting what they show. There is more to it then just the 850, these models all have an incredible mid level warm punch associated with the strong waa because of the lows track. Yes there will be a period of front end snow but again eventually the warm air aloft will win out and the transition to sleet and plain rain will occur. This will happen well before anyone in western bergen sees 6-12 inches. Seen this setup several times and it typically results in at most 3-6 inches for western bergen followed by sleet and plain rain ultimately. You are deceiving people by claiming the models show all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just playing around dude. Common mistake. I know lol, just wanted to note that I'm aware of the difference. Looks like the precip is having a little trouble making it this far north. Perhaps it's a sign that the subsidence is hanging on a little stronger than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Both the 12z Canadian and UKMET now keep NW NJ on the cold side of the 850 line for the entire storm. Part of the problem here, and this is not a rip on you but hopefully you understand what I'm getting at, is that the warm layer doesn't always occur at exactly 850mb, or 925mb, or 700mb. Those are individual slices of the atmospheric column that are shown on the model graphics to help you get an understanding of whats going on. But the NAM soundings, just as an example, show the warm layer poking through in some locales between 875mb and 900mb. So on the graphic you'll be seeing 850mb temperatures below zero, when in reality it could be sleeting or rain (maybe freezing rain) there if that warm layer is deep enough. Paying attention to that one thin 850mb line, which is a tiny little slice of the atmospheric column only tells you 1/1000th of the story. There is a lot more to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Part of the problem here, and this is not a rip on you but hopefully you understand what I'm getting at, is that the warm layer doesn't always occur at exactly 850mb, or 925mb, or 700mb. Those are individual slices of the atmospheric column that are shown on the model graphics to help you get an understanding of whats going on. But the NAM soundings, just as an example, show the warm layer poking through in some locales between 875mb and 900mb. So on the graphic you'll be seeing 850mb temperatures below zero, when in reality it could be sleeting or rain (maybe freezing rain) there if that warm layer is deep enough. Paying attention to that one thin 850mb line, which is a tiny little slice of the atmospheric column only tells you 1/1000th of the story. There is a lot more to it. i believe it would be 1/850th of the story !!! ;-) Great point though John. That's where soundings come in handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 i believe it would be 1/850th of the story !!! ;-) Great point though John. That's where soundings come in handy. Especially in mid level warm air advection events like this...I have always found it prudent to analyze every inch of the column before calling for snow. I've been bitten many of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Should be nice to pick up a few inches maybe, after that most of us get heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Part of the problem here, and this is not a rip on you but hopefully you understand what I'm getting at, is that the warm layer doesn't always occur at exactly 850mb, or 925mb, or 700mb. Those are individual slices of the atmospheric column that are shown on the model graphics to help you get an understanding of whats going on. But the NAM soundings, just as an example, show the warm layer poking through in some locales between 875mb and 900mb. So on the graphic you'll be seeing 850mb temperatures below zero, when in reality it could be sleeting or rain (maybe freezing rain) there if that warm layer is deep enough. Paying attention to that one thin 850mb line, which is a tiny little slice of the atmospheric column only tells you 1/1000th of the story. There is a lot more to it. Believe me, I completely understand all of this. I am counting on the intensity of the precipitation keeping this all snow until the precipitation subsides. The ECMWF snowfall map on Accuweather shows 6-12 inches for Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex, Morris, Northern and Western Somerset County, Northern Passaic County, and Western Bergen County. That map goes right along with my thinking. I am basing this all upon intensity of the precipitation keeping the column cool enough for snow. Of course I may bust, but we shall see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 People who read your blog are going to assume that all the weather models are wrong because you claim that they show all snow. Unless they are aware you are just misinterpreting what they show. There is more to it then just the 850, these models all have an incredible mid level warm punch associated with the strong waa because of the lows track. Yes there will be a period of front end snow but again eventually the warm air aloft will win out and the transition to sleet and plain rain will occur. This will happen well before anyone in western bergen sees 6-12 inches. Seen this setup several times and it typically results in at most 3-6 inches for western bergen followed by sleet and plain rain ultimately. You are deceiving people by claiming the models show all snow. You are welcome to your interpretation of things, but I am counting on the cooling of the column by the intensity of the precipitation to keep this snow until the intensity subsides. Sure, I may bust. We shall soon see. It is my forecast, win or lose. People follow my blog because they have seen me get it right many times when others don't. Will I get it right this time? Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yes, I busted terribly. It has mixed with sleet already after only an inch of accumulation. Temperature of 27 degrees. Now we must worry about severe icing potential, unless we can get this temperature above freezing rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Snowing lightly yo moderately in Liberty, temp 23 degrees, hoping no sleet of FR mixes in and we get a solid foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Realistically, what are the chances of the HWW verifying on the south shore of LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Down to 28...snowing very heavily...everything covered probably quarter inch so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Took me 90 minutes to make the 20 mile drive home from Ramsey to Pompton Lakes. Pouring snow. 2-3'' on the ground already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Took me 90 minutes to make the 20 mile drive home from Ramsey to Pompton Lakes. Pouring snow. 2-3'' on the ground already. we get it dood, you posted this in the observation thread already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 pretty good amounts here. will never drive in the snow ever again. just about the scariest moment of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z NAM still gives areas up here upwards of a foot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z NAM still gives areas up here upwards of a foot.. How about here in Liberty, are we good for that too without a changeover SNYWX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 How about here in Liberty, are we good for that too without a changeover SNYWX? I think sleet is in the cards for all of us.. That could be the extent of our transition though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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