Ericjcrash Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Precip exploding near the Carolina coast. The transfer is occuring right now. Stil might be my sleet storm taking a nap for an hour as temps "soar" to 31/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 What the heck is a QPF event? Do you mean a high-end precipitation event? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Ask the NAM how it's 850 temps are doing in the DC area for me. If the NAM was a student in school, it would have flunked the test on this event. Probably fell asleep during the lesson on how 850's should collapse into a precip shield with CAD in place. Whats worse is yesterdays 12z NAM forecast was for the precip shield to reach here at 40 degrees - 10 degree surface progg error inside 24 hrs im sure 850s and 900s are warming , but to b off 10 degrees at surface for a high res model 24 hrs out is bad. Will rain on the coast in buckets , but temps stuck at surface , gotta worry about places just outside city icing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 lol.. The NAM wants it to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Covered in white in Baltimore. http://weather.weatherbug.com/MD/Baltimore-weather/weather-cams/local-cams.html?zcode=z6286 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Covered in white in Baltimore. http://weather.weath...tml?zcode=z6286 Sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Sleet? Nope it is snowing in Baltimore according to my sister who lives near the inner harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I caleed for sleet but its nap time. Seeing how we have done of late I won't miss much fingers crossed. 31/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Baltimore FTW http://weather.weatherbug.com/MD/Baltimore-weather/weather-cams/local-cams.html?zcode=z6286&camera_id=BLTMD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z GFS clown map shows 3-5 inches of snow for NYC before it changes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I typed the following and posted this on my blog, prior to viewing the snowfall map that is posted on Accuweather for the 0z Euro. The snowfall map for the Euro on Accuweather is EXACTLY as I stated the following on my blog, and the map there was posted only after I typed and posted the following....The European model is not budging one bit, so neither am I, in fact, I really concerned that this could be a tremendous quick hit type of snowstorm, where there could be EXTREMELY heavy snow falling over a rather short period of time that has the potential to drop up to a foot of snow in only about 6 hours. This would mean near blizzard conditions in many areas if this really occurs as I believe it may in our area tomorrow night. The heavy snow should fall basically from late afternoon through around midnight or so. I think the mistake that is being made by the National Weather Service and many of the other news outlets is that the temperatures will warm up quickly over night, but this should be AFTER the precipitation has lightened up and is basically over. Yes, it will likely end as some drizzle or light rain, but prior to that, I strongly believe the EXTREMELY heavy precipitation rates will keep the atmosphere cold enough for snow in most areas of Northern New Jersey, with the only exclusion being the city areas such as Newark, and possibly north through Eastern sections of Bergen County and Hudson County, close to the Hudson River, where temperatures may be just warm enough to turn the snow to rain after a couple of inches falls. In fact, down by Newark, there may be very little if any snow, but as you head west and go up the hills into areas such as West Orange and Livingston, I can easily picture 6-12 inches. So to try and draw a line of what I am thinking, basically I believe that Eastern Essex County, Hudson County, and Eastern Bergen County will likely get 3-6 inches, except 1-3 inches in the city locations and right along the Hudson River, and Western Essex County, Southern Passaic County, Western Bergen County, Southeastern Morris County and Warren Counties will receive 6-12 inches, and Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties should receive 12-18 inches. I believe this to be a very dangerous situation for anyone considering traveling tomorrow night and I would caution against being on the roads tomorrow late in the afternoon or at night. To reiterate, I believe the National Weather Service and the news outlets are drastically underestimating the heavy snow potential with the storm, and I can easily picture many areas getting nearly a foot of snow in only about a 6 hour time period late in the day tomorrow. I strongly believe they are misreading this situation and that the warm air will not move into our area until after the precipitation is basically finished. Lol Indian Hills is my alma mater and I use to do the weather there all the time. Are you kidding me 6-12 inches in Oakland? You have to be crazy out of your mind and completely ignoring all sensible weather data. The primary is well to our west and there is strong waa and the mid level warm punch is already evident. Winds will most likely become unfavorable and after our initial burst of snow we should quickly change to sleet and eventually rain. I think 3-6 inches is best case scenario as the mid levels will warm quickly and you are greatly underestimating this aspect. I think the NWS 1-4 inches seems more then reasonable based on guidance and similar setups in the past. You are hyping way too much, but I have noticed that is a common theme on your blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z GFS clown map shows 3-5 inches of snow for NYC before it changes to rain. Post it please Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Post it please Rossi http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnow018.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Lol Indian Hills is my alma mater and I use to do the weather there all the time. Are you kidding me 6-12 inches in Oakland? You have to be crazy out of your mind and completely ignoring all sensible weather data. The primary is well to our west and there is strong waa and the mid level warm punch is already evident. Winds will most likely become unfavorable and after our initial burst of snow we should quickly change to sleet and eventually rain. I think 3-6 inches is best case scenario as the mid levels will warm quickly and you are greatly underestimating this aspect. I think the NWS 1-4 inches seems more then reasonable based on guidance and similar setups in the past. You are hyping way too much, but I have noticed that is a common theme on your blog. LOL- small world. I went to high school at Indian hills. Class of 98. Anyway, there is no way they are get 6-12! I was thinking 3-4 inches before a slopfest and then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 LOL- small world. I went to high school at Indian hills. Class of 98. Anyway, there is no way they are get 6-12! I was thinking 3-4 inches before a slopfest and then rain. That is awesome, great school! Don't get my wrong our area will fair much better then those just to our s and e simply because of elevation but 6-12 is much to extreme. I of course am assuming you still live in the Oakland area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That is awesome, great school! Don't get my wrong our area will fair much better then those just to our s and e simply because of elevation but 6-12 is much to extreme. I of course am assuming you still live in the Oakland area. No longer live there. I now live in Rockaway. I am literally 200 yards north of rt 80 and about 8 miles west of rt 287. I think I should get similar to what Oakland should get. Anyone see the latest HRRR? Shows a 4+ north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 two separate reports from the mid atlantic forum of snow still mixing with sleet just south of baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Well this is a storm we see more typically during winter. A lot of those places that will get big snows from this have missed out when we got hammered in 09-10 10-11 and even they did bad last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 two separate reports from the mid atlantic forum of snow still mixing with sleet just south of baltimore. Brother is driving from DC to NW NJ. Said it snowed fro DC to 10 miles south of DE border. Sticking on the ground, light to moderate at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Brother is driving from DC to NW NJ. Said it snowed fro DC to 10 miles south of DE border. Sticking on the ground, light to moderate at times. Delaware is a horrible place. It does'nt snow just cold miserable rain and very very boring!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The storm is forecast to slow down right as the strongest LLJ moves over the region from around 7pm-1am tonight. Areas from around the city eastward will probably see frequent wind gusts between 50-60 mph and there will probably be peak gusts on the LSR tomorrow of over 60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Couple of things to keep an eye on obserbation wise over the next 24 hours, as I believe we might be looking at a nowcasting event here. 1) Surface wind direction Right now most of us are advecting very nicely on northerly/NNE winds of 0-10 degrees with dew points falling into the low/mid 20s. Surface high pressure of 1032mb is situating itself near the southern tip of Hudson's Bay, initiating the infamous cold air damming process east of the Appalachains. Wind direction should remain dominate out of the N/NE throughout the next 12-15 hours, but monitor it closely as the onset of heavier precipitation arrives. The tightly packed isobars with their SE-NW orientation at H85 would lead one to believe that we'll be screaming easterly/ESE winds by tomorrow afternoon. However, a strong surface high attempts to resist that rush of marine air with the NELY surface winds. If your wind direction is still 0 to 50 degrees or so late tomorrow afternoon, you'll probably stay frozen longer thab progged. If you've already gone to 80-90 degrees with due easterlies, the CAD didn't hold well at all, and your boundary layer will be torching. This is one of the clues I recall on the night before VD 2007. Wind direction did not exceed about 50-55 degrees. wind direction varying between 50 and 57 degrees right now via rutgers/east brunswick wx station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 precip is starting as rain in SNJ according to dual pol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1205 PM EST WED DEC 26 2012 ...SNOW AND ICE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING... NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ071>075-176-178-262300- /O.EXB.KOKX.WW.Y.0010.121226T1800Z-121226T2300Z/ EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX- WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS- 1205 PM EST WED DEC 26 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY...AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES. * WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF TO ONE 1 MILE IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. WWA have been extened SE including NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Both the 12z Canadian and UKMET now keep NW NJ on the cold side of the 850 line for the entire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 What the heck is a QPF event? Do you mean a high-end precipitation event? You didn't know that QPF fell from the sky? Where have you been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Secondary is rapidly forming over NC now. Pressures in that region have fallen to about 999mbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You didn't know that QPF fell from the sky? Where have you been? model qpf printouts falling from the sky here... hoping for a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The storm is forecast to slow down right as the strongest LLJ moves over the region from around 7pm-1am tonight. Areas from around the city eastward will probably see frequent wind gusts between 50-60 mph and there will probably be peak gusts on the LSR tomorrow of over 60 mph. I'm pretty worried about coastal flooding if we have prolonged strong easterly winds hammering away. Hopefully it doesn't slow down much so we don't build too much water up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You didn't know that QPF fell from the sky? Where have you been? The abbreviation "QPF" gets funky with grammar. It's the same as saying a "forecast falls from the sky." Make sense in that context? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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