NEG NAO Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18Z GFS Ensemble is west of the OP taking a classic track delivering heavy snow to the entire area http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12156.gif over an inch of precip from 25th thru 28th http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep72180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Not a bad look at all. If the GGEM, GFS, etc have the right idea with the general pattern progression...I think many of us will be very excited about 3-4 days from now. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18Z GFS Ensemble is west of the OP taking a classic track delivering heavy snow to the entire area http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12156.gif over an inch of precip from 25th thru 28th http://raleighwx.ame...emblep72180.gif Individual members are either west and warm, or east and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Quick summary and discussion of some thoughts if anyone is interested: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Individual members are either west and warm, or east and a miss. Seems like a fairly strong signal though for significant precip. (be it liquid or frozen), given the nature of ensemble runs and the relatively long lead time remaining for this potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 So far so good out 84 hours. Strong confluence to the north and looks like the Christmas storm is going to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Hour 102...we have an appreciable snowfall. Definitely 2-4 from PHL to NYC, maybe pockets of 5 or 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yes, definitely solid 3-5" in the metro area, especially north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Development occurs way inland when compared to the 18z run. Surface cyclone moves into the Tennessee valley Completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Development occurs way inland when compared to the 18z run. Completely different. If it gets anymore developed than what it is now, it likely goes further north. Already, I'm concerned about interaction with the northern stream of energy coming down over Minnesota while this one gets going. If the two manage a phase, we'll have another rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Nice at 144 on the GFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 by 150 850s warm above zero but it looks like a good front end thump maybe 3-6 esp n and w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Ripping at 156 had to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I think a huge thing here which may be obvious to some is that regardless of the fact that our block flexes its muscles and confluence holds strong, if it wraps up too early redevelopment occurs too far W. It occurs enough south of the area its just a tad bit too far west as the low goes from the delmarva to just south of LI by 153 Edit: We all go back to snow after 153 so maybe slight dry slight warming/drizzle followed by dropping temps and backend snow, maybe another 3-6 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Kinda occludes a little early for my taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Weenie storm for PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 its not a perfect run by any means but verbatim would be a 2-4+ event on christmas and formidable SECS/MECS favoring inland locations for this threat. Either way as depicted most of the area probably closes in on 8 inches after the 2 storms for the month if the GFS is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I <3 this run of the GFS. Snow on Christmas, followed by this? Please oh mighty Euro, please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I <3 this run of the GFS. Snow on Christmas, followed by this? Please oh mighty Euro, please... 6z and 18z runs have been weird, but if you look at 00z to 12z today to now 00z tn there are some clear trends on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 6z and 18z runs have been weird, but if you look at 00z to 12z today to now 00z tn there are some clear trends on the GFS. Yeah definite moves towards the miller B, the secondary development is oh so painfully slow though, if you take this run literally and get that coastal transfer 12-18 hours earlier everyone stays snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 its not a perfect run by any means but verbatim would be a 2-4+ event on christmas and formidable SECS/MECS favoring inland locations for this threat. Either way as depicted most of the area probably closes in on 8 inches after the 2 storms for the month if the GFS is to be believed. after what this month has been id claim it a perfect run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yeah definite moves towards the miller B, the secondary development is oh so painfully slow though, if you take this run literally and get that coastal transfer 12-18 hours earlier everyone stays snow. Which is certainly possible with the block moving south and the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Pretty good run, but I'm pretty sure the heavy snow axis will sink 50 miles south in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Biggest problem is that first potential event changes everything for the 2nd one, we're probably still 48 hours from getting a good handle on what that one will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Tonight's a Euro night. The Europeans can have my soul. I just want it to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Tonight's edition of the "NOGAPS rule" has this storm tracking from Norfolk to Block Island. It actually is somewhat amped on the X-Mas wave, its probably rain just looking at the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 NAM would be rain as well for Xmas storm. Tonight's edition of the "NOGAPS rule" has this storm tracking from Norfolk to Block Island. It actually is somewhat amped on the X-Mas wave, its probably rain just looking at the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 NAM would be rain as well for Xmas storm. The NAM is running a low directly into confluence at 84 hours. It's nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 If the 0Z GFS verifies inland locations just a few miles from the immediate coast could have on the ground when all is said and done close to a foot of snow - xmas and 12/27 event combined - check out newark http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Pretty good run, but I'm pretty sure the heavy snow axis will sink 50 miles south in time. lol.. May I ask why you think this or is it cause you live 50 miles south of the current heavy snow axis shown on the 0z GFS.. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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