mob1 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 No way.It was way colder for that storm. It was like 20 degrees and completely overcast in the city that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 6z GFS came in a lot colder and now looks like the ECMWF. Looks like the colder solutions will probably verify with this system, considering DC is reporting snow that is accumulating, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 6z GFS came in a lot colder and now looks like the ECMWF. Looks like the colder solutions will probably verify with this system, considering DC is reporting snow that is accumulating, so you are predicting 4 - 8 inches for NYC metro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am really nobody here so requesting the mod's to throw up the Obs and Disco thread for this event, Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro snowmap has few inches of snow for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 so you are predicting 4 - 8 inches for NYC metro ? No, but that may not be a bad forecast for some of the NW Burbs though. I think the city will probably start off as snow, skeptical of accumulations in the city though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Sitting at about 28/22 here. If we're below freezing still at the onset of precipitation, that says a lot about how poorly the models did for surface temps. I don't think a single model had us below freezing at the surface when precip. started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 No, but that may not be a bad forecast for some of the NW Burbs though. I think the city will probably start off as snow, skeptical of accumulations in the city though. if both the EURO and the GFS maps have a few inches for the NYC Metro why not believe them considering most of us are below freezing at all levels and precip is moving this way........??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Nice to see areas well to the south are seeing surprise snow..maybe a holiday miracle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Winter Weather Advisory just got posted for Washington D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Sitting at 26/20 here. NWS has a WWA that is calling for 0.2" of ice and 1-4" of snow however the point and click is now going with plain rain. If I don't get anything frozen, the city certainly won't either. I don't know what model that they could possibly be looking at to go with plain rain NW of I-287. Today Rain, mainly after 1pm. High near 37. East wind 6 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Check out the snow falling in D.C http://www.senate.gov/general/capcam.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Mid-Level warm punch very evident on SPC Mesoscale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Hard to say just yet if the DC snow means much, it could be better CAD which they are prone to. Also, we've seen before storms arrive early on down there and start frozen and we warm up too much. I'm not sure though we'll get to 38 or 40 today but you never know, we can sometimes soar pretty well even with a thick cloud deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Mid-Level warm punch very evident on SPC Mesoscale. you can see the mid level warm punch already on this radar with mixing in south jersey- this is mainly a mix to start then a wind driven rain storm in NYC metro except far north and west - this is 11/12 nightmare winter revisited http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USVA0731&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Obs thread made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That radar shows DC mixing when they're clearly snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 you can see the mid level warm punch already on this radar with mixing in south jersey- this is mainly a mix to start then a wind driven rain storm in NYC metro except far north and west - this is 11/12 nightmare winter revisited http://www.intellica...31&animate=true C'mon I think you are being way too dramatic. Take a look down at BWI, you can see how the rain snow line briefly moved north of the city and then once the heavier echos arrived it transitioned back to snow. Currently sitting at 35 degrees per the NWS but based on reports it's clearly snowing. Could be one of those intensity based storms where the lighter precip is rain and then it switches over to heavy snow when a burst of heavier precip comes in. I certainly think that there is potential for some us in NJ to begin as snow and stay mostly if not all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 She is organizing quite nicely. The radar is really filling in down in the mid-atlantic. This could be a high end QPF event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 C'mon I think you are being way too dramatic. Take a look down at BWI, you can see how the rain snow line briefly moved north of the city and then once the heavier echos arrived it transitioned back to snow. Currently sitting at 35 degrees per the NWS but based on reports it's clearly snowing. Could be one of those intensity based storms where the lighter precip is rain and then it switches over to heavy snow when a burst of heavier precip comes in. I certainly think that there is potential for some us in NJ to begin as snow and stay mostly if not all snow. you are in the western part of NYC metro where it could be snowing by you but raining just a few miles east - this will be more rain then anything else once you get towards eastern bergen - eastern essex - hudson county and points east and south - you should get several inches accumulation - the rest of us maybe a trace then washed away - just like a couple nights ago........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 you are in the western part of NYC metro where it could be snowing by you but raining just a few miles east - this will be more rain then anything else once you get towards eastern bergen - eastern essex - hudson county and points east and south - you should get several inches accumulation - the rest of us maybe a trace then washed away - just like a couple nights ago........... Absolutely, I-287 will probably be the seperator between a couple sloppy inches and some significant accumulations. I live right on that border so as usual I will be watching the radar trends closely. The ACE in the hole could be any dynamic cooling that we can get as the radar trends look promising for heavier precip later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Well, this is just plain funny. Upton and Mt. Holly disagree. Point and click for Ramsey. Today Snow, mainly after 1pm. High near 37. East wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tonight Snow and sleet before 10pm, then rain and sleet between 10pm and 3am, then rain after 3am. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. Low around 30. Breezy, with a east wind 18 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 32/24 with a very light NE wind here in Monmouth County. Wet bulbs areawide in the mid/upper 20s right now. Still believe it will be an interesting first few hours for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Also see the warm air aloft using AMDAR data out of EWR it's around freezing at 900 Mb, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z NAM FWIW came in maybe a hair colder and a bit drier. Keeps most areas under 2" QPF. Would be mostly rain area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z NAM FWIW came in maybe a hair colder and a bit drier. Keeps most areas under 2" QPF. Would be mostly rain area wide. The Nam is off. Too slow with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The Nam is off. Too slow with the precip. Didn't say it was right or wrong, just reporting what it looks like. The NAM has been on the warm side of guidance this entire time so I'm not surprised. If I Euro/GFS blend is the way to go I think a lot of folks in this sub-forum will be pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z NAM FWIW came in maybe a hair colder and a bit drier. Keeps most areas under 2" QPF. Would be mostly rain area wide. Ask the NAM how it's 850 temps are doing in the DC area for me. If the NAM was a student in school, it would have flunked the test on this event. Probably fell asleep during the lesson on how 850's should collapse into a precip shield with CAD in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Precip exploding near the Carolina coast. The transfer is occuring right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This could be a high end QPF event. What the heck is a QPF event? Do you mean a high-end precipitation event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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