Snow_Miser Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The 12z ECMWF snow maps give 6"+ to somerset county N and W. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That map actually looks pretty spot on I'd think....really nothing for NYC, a half inch for me and a couple inches in highly elevated areas 20 miles from here There are just too many discrepancies with these snow maps and the soundings. That map suggests that even Washington D.C. should be under some sort of advisory. Meanwhile, NWS down in Virginia just downgraded all of their watches into advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It seems like the trends have reached their coldest point....should level out on the models now or start to warm a bit. 18z NAM coming in about the same, maybe a bit warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 WOW! Look at that tail of thunderstorms all the way down to the Yucatan. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F25%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=027&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM is pretty warm...have a hard time believing that maps snow totals will verify. There could be a period of sleet/snow in the immediate burbs but I think accumulations will be limited to the interior/elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This track looks like the December 74 high wind event here with the big high to the north of the storm and a track just inland from the coast. We had a number of peak wind gusts of 60 mph or greater with that storm. http://greatlakes.sa...74_sfc_loop.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This track looks like the December 74 high wind event here with the big high to the north of the storm and a track just inland from the coast. We had a number of peak wind gusts of 60 mph or greater with that storm. http://greatlakes.sa...74_sfc_loop.gif Somewhat favorable lapse rates would be very concerning. Some SREF members have 50-60kt sustained winds on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM is pretty warm...have a hard time believing that maps snow totals will verify. There could be a period of sleet/snow in the immediate burbs but I think accumulations will be limited to the interior/elevated. So you don't believe the colder Euro for this storm> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 So you don't believe the colder Euro for this storm> No I'm talking about the NAM snow map and the amounts it was showing -- based off the soundings and maps it seems unlikely that areas as far south as me will see 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Somewhat favorable lapse rates would be very concerning. Some SREF members have 50-60kt sustained winds on Long Island. Yeah, the models show 950 mb temps about 2.5C lower than the surface during peak winds. In the past we have mixed down some damaging gusts during easterly events with a similar temp profile/LLJ and heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think that the coastal flooding threat from this event is significant. Portions of Kings and Queens counties are still recovering from Sandy, and with a 3 to 5 foot surge potential in place, moderate flooding is to be expected. Even moderate coastal flooding will exaserbate the damage already in place. Won't take much to really mess things up. This is my opinion only. The timing is going to be crucial for the actual tide levels. The models bring in the peak surge levels around 1-3 am here on the South Shore early Thursday. Any slowing of the storm will get the highest surge levels closer to the morning high tides around 7 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 No I'm talking about the NAM snow map and the amounts it was showing -- based off the soundings and maps it seems unlikely that areas as far south as me will see 6". 18z NAM looks like hardly anything frozen up here even....12z ECM was much better, and the 12z GFS was somewhat better. I'm surprised more people aren't following the evolution of this threat into a significant front-end dump for NYC metro, but I guess it's Christmas and a lot of people on here are going to turn to rain quickly with east winds... Definitely going to be a strong gradient with this one as I could see southern Brooklyn getting a coating while Bronx/Westchester sees 3-6" and Orange County sees 8-12". As Isotherm says, the important thing is to maintain northeast winds so we don't have BL issues...the 850s are pretty cold on the Euro for the majority of the heavy precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas Man... I Hear Ya, But I'm In Sussex And I Dont Think Anyone Here Sees 8-12. 18z NAM looks like hardly anything frozen up here even....12z ECM was much better, and the 12z GFS was somewhat better. I'm surprised more people aren't following the evolution of this threat into a significant front-end dump for NYC metro, but I guess it's Christmas and a lot of people on here are going to turn to rain quickly with east winds... Definitely going to be a strong gradient with this one as I could see southern Brooklyn getting a coating while Bronx/Westchester sees 3-6" and Orange County sees 8-12". As Isotherm says, the important thing is to maintain northeast winds so we don't have BL issues...the 850s are pretty cold on the Euro for the majority of the heavy precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas Man... I Hear Ya, But I'm In Sussex And I Dont Think Anyone Here Sees 8-12. Orange County is to your north in New York State...they'll have higher totals. I could see some of the ridgelines near Middletown above 1000' getting 8-12", although I think those amounts will generally be reserved for the Catskills and Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Interesting that NWS Upton again removed the snow wording from my forecast, especially when most models are trending cold enough for at least light front end snow and perhaps less than an inch. I definitely think some models are overdoing it, especially the RGEM, but at this time I would expect at least some light snow at the start of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z NAM looks like hardly anything frozen up here even....12z ECM was much better, and the 12z GFS was somewhat better. I'm surprised more people aren't following the evolution of this threat into a significant front-end dump for NYC metro, but I guess it's Christmas and a lot of people on here are going to turn to rain quickly with east winds... Definitely going to be a strong gradient with this one as I could see southern Brooklyn getting a coating while Bronx/Westchester sees 3-6" and Orange County sees 8-12". As Isotherm says, the important thing is to maintain northeast winds so we don't have BL issues...the 850s are pretty cold on the Euro for the majority of the heavy precipitation. Surface northeasterlies and boundary layer issues are not the concern. To a lesser extent, neither are the 850s. It's the upper layer warming, as portrayed on every model, which will change the snows to mix / rain, per current modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The GFS alone. Euro matches with all global models. 50 mile wiggle room east still possible And you are goin to have to wait until it secondaries to see if thats happens. u guys in northern n j hudson valley and central ct north very kool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS came in warmer, but still some snow in the beginning. That's all we can hope for at this point, which is a blessing considering a storm that tracks over New Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS came in warmer, but still some snow in the beginning. That's all we can hope for at this point, which is a blessing considering a storm that tracks over New Jersey 850 mb temperatures look about the same as the 12z GFS from my standpoint. No major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS came in warmer, but still some snow in the beginning. That's all we can hope for at this point, which is a blessing considering a storm that tracks over New Jersey The GFS is all alone. Torches 850s think it's further east in the end. I thnk the GFS comes around Too warm. Not buyin it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The GFS alone. Euro matches with all global models. 50 mile wiggle room east still possible And you are goin to have to wait until it secondaries to see if thats happens. u guys in northern n j hudson valley and central ct north very kool This is going to be a classic nowcast storm where you have to rely on precipitation intensity per radar, boundary layer winds, and mesoscale banding cooling the column. GFS is still SO much warmer than the 12z ECM. For example, at 42 hours on the 12z ECM, the 850 freezing line has just passed NYC and has reached Yonkers, NY in extreme Southern Westchester...still south of me. At 36 hours on the 18z GFS, the 850 freezing line is all the way up near Albany...120 miles to my north. What is going on here? Euro thermal profiles are usually better so I'll trust the Euro, but there's a lot of uncertainty. This is the difference between 1-2" of slop washed away by rain and a significant winter storm with 4-6" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Earlier/later frames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Earlier/later frames? R/S orientation is more SE/NW, a look of a low on the coast, rather than a N/S as it was before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Earlier/later frames? Here's 6 hours later and 6 hours after that Looks to me like a N/W of I-287 and I-78 stays all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Here's 6 hours later and 6 hours after that Looks to me like a N/W of I-287 and I-78 stays all snow. Do you have 6 hours earlier? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Do you have 6 hours earlier? Thanks! You know what? here's hours 28-48 at 2 hour intervals. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You know what? here's hours 28-48 at 2 hour intervals. Enjoy RGEM looks way too cold... I'd be surprised if NE NJ spends even 15-20% of this event with snow, definitely not 75%. Perhaps it could be a bit cooler than expected but probably not this much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 RGEM looks way too cold... I'd be surprised if NE NJ spends even 15-20% of this event with snow, definitely not 75%. Perhaps it could be a bit cooler than expected but probably not this much. The RGEM is pretty similar to the Euro you know? It's only a touch colder... People are underestimating this storm in here because the American guidance is warmer, and those are the maps that most posters look at. On the better foreign guidance such as the ECM/GGEM/RGEM, this is a cold storm for most of the NYC metro area with significant snowfall accumulations and potential icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The RGEM is pretty similar to the Euro you know? It's only a touch colder... People are underestimating this storm in here because the American guidance is warmer, and those are the maps that most posters look at. On the better foreign guidance such as the ECM/GGEM/RGEM, this is a cold storm for most of the NYC metro area with significant snowfall accumulations and potential icing. Hope u are right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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