Snow_Miser Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z GFS continues to be colder than the Nam. Yeah, has a nice thumping for the NW Burbs again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The High Resolution 12z 4 KM NAM looks a lot colder than the 12z NAM for the NW Burbs. VERY close here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z GFS clown map has 3-6 inches of snow for NYC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnow042.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z GFS clown map has 3-6 inches of snow for NYChttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnow042.gif lol 6" snow here....riiiight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This run looks slightly more frozen precip. It showed a little more snow at 0z though. This just about does it for the city , coast and immediate subs . Too warm period , I dont know what u r looking at , when u say a little more frozen its 40 when the precip starts and 3 hrs later 850`s blow up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This just about does it for the city , coast and immediate subs . Too warm period , I dont know what u r looking at , when u say a little more frozen its 40 when the precip starts and 3 hrs later 850`s blow up . Which model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z GFS clown map has 3-6 inches of snow for NYC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnow042.gif Verification likelihood aside, the trend to paint a slightly colder scenario at all levels further south and east continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NYC immediate suburbs its 40 - when the precip starts . pls throw away the clown maps they dont overlay with the model at all in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Which model? 12z nam - 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z nam - 12z gfs 12z Nam is the warmest model out there. GFS and RGEM is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z Nam is the warmest model out there. GFS and RGEM is colder. Check out 12z GFS hr 36 850s at 0 , kool , whats not kool - east wind , so mid layers warm and its 40 at the surface for the CITY points south and east . Look at more than the 850s brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Check out 12z GFS hr 36 850s at 0 , kool , whats not kool - east wind , so mid layers warm and its 40 at the surface for the CITY points south and east . Look at more than the 850s brother i think NYC and nearby burbs start as a mix or sleet for a few hours before transitioning to rain. Might actually accumulate an inch or so because the precip will come in like a wall....but will quickly turn to all rain anyway. Similar to last night in and around the city only sleet not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 i think NYC and nearby burbs start as a mix or sleet for a few hours before transitioning to rain. Might actually accumulate an inch or so because the precip will come in like a wall....but will quickly turn to all rain anyway. Similar to last night in and around the city only sleet not snow I agree. I am not expecting frozen stuff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER- WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- 940 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER- WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- 940 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Perhaps an advisory will be posted later in the day for these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 However it turns out, you've gotta respect a storm that does THIS to our country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 However it turns out, you've gotta respect a storm that does THIS to our country. Yeah, solid watches/warnings/advisories form Dallas to Caribou. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Costal flood watch & high wind watch, what we don't need //: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Costal flood watch & high wind watch, what we don't need //: Steeper low level lapse rates than last Friday's wind event here. So there is a higher probability of wind gusts of 60 mph or greater mixing down especially from the NYC metro-Jersey Shore eastward across LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Steeper low level lapse rates than last Friday's wind event here. So there is a higher probability of wind gusts of 60 mph or greater mixing down especially from the NYC metro-Jersey Shore eastward across LI. Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 UKMET just went a little more south and east with the low and now has NW NJ as ALL SNOW for the entire storm. Basically from Rt. 78 north and Rt. 287 West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 unfortunately, the ukie is pretty terrible. reliable guidance points to a front end thump then change over to all kinds of frozen stuff before changing to rain. maybe if you make your way towards middletown will you have a chance at all frozen. those places tend to do well and quite often over perform in marginal events...far NW NJ does well too but this system looks like you need to be more N than W around the area to do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Canadian did the same as the UKMET. Basically everyone from Rt. 78 North and Rt. 287 West is now all snow on both of these models, and everyone to the east of that in Northern NJ on both the UKMET and Canadian would appear to get signficant snow as well, with about 75% of the storm as snow. Dependent on surface temps in the eastern sections. Just saw the Canadian in high resolution on Wright Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 UKMET just went a little more south and east with the low and now has NW NJ as ALL SNOW for the entire storm. Basically from Rt. 78 north and Rt. 287 West. Going to be on the fence in NW NJ. Good news with the UK, time to toss out the GFS/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Canadian did the same as the UKMET. Basically everyone from Rt. 78 North and Rt. 287 West is now all snow on both of these models, and everyone to the east of that in Northern NJ on both the UKMET and Canadian would appear to get signficant snow as well, with about 75% of the storm as snow. Dependent on surface temps in the eastern sections. Just saw the Canadian in high resolution on Wright Weather.i really don't see a way NE NJ would see 5% of the storm as snow, let alone 75%! Would be great of course.....but at this point the models really have converged In a high confidence forecast of heavy snow to mix inland 75+ miles and a rain/sleet to rain scenario for all else with little or no accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Going to be on the fence in NW NJ. Good news with the UK, time to toss out the GFS/NAM I don't think so buddy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 i really don't see a way NE NJ would see 5% of the storm as snow, let alone 75%! Would be great of course.....but at this point the models really have converged In a high confidence forecast of heavy snow to mix inland 75+ miles and a rain/sleet to rain scenario for all else with little or no accumulation Northwest NJ is going to see significant snows with this system, especially at 1000'+ elevations. Surface temperatures are the main problem, and they're going to be a lot colder than NYC. I'm expecting at least 1-3" before changeover in Westchester, and they should receive quite a bit more than I. Remember...0z ECM is colder than NAM and GFS, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Up here in Sullivan County, Winter storm watch hoisted, calling for 7 inches, hopefully no mix and we get a foot, 1600 feet elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Northwest NJ is going to see significant snows with this system, especially at 1000'+ elevations. Surface temperatures are the main problem, and they're going to be a lot colder than NYC. I'm expecting at least 1-3" before changeover in Westchester, and they should receive quite a bit more than I. Remember...0z ECM is colder than NAM and GFS, guys. Even the 12z GFS shows significant snow for areas up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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