snywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Surface parameters KMSV 12z GFS http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_KMSV.txt Not to mention its the warmest solution out there. I would have no worries if I was in MSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Accuweather Euro snow map shows a foot of snow for Sussex County, NJ and roughly 6-12 for areas of Northern NJ north of 78 and west of Rt. 287 and 3-6 inches for areas roughly east of Rt. 287 and north of Rt. 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z Euro ensemble mean is nearly identical to the operational run, although it is possibly 10 miles further south with the placement of the low as it passes across south Jersey, but it gets it to the same spot by the time it gets off the Jersey coast. Interestingly though (I am fairly certain due to the lower resolution) it has the 850 line about 10 miles further north. Based on the placement being just a touch further south, I imagine there is still some room to get this storm just a touch further south and east on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Now that the midweek storm is trending colder and 6-12 numbers spit out for nw NJ, what would that translate into up in Sullivan County at 1,600 feet?. I'm conjfused with tonight, wcbs/WINS all say 1-2 N and NW of NYC but up here they're calling for 1-2 inches too, thought 2-4 would be more likely. not nearly enough precip to get over 2 for anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z GFS definitely warmer than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z GFS definitely warmer than 12z. Very warm even for NW areas now. Maybe brief frozen to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks to be in the high 30's and raining for most of the area. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 If only the confluence was stronger. I must say it's quite unusual for the storm to hug the coast like that, they usually redevelop offshore. Both the Nam and Gfs made the low a bit stronger in the latest run which increases the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It is still printing out 4-6 inches of snow in Northwest NJ. Barely any real difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Very warm even for NW areas now. Maybe brief frozen to start It looks about the same in terms of a possibility for a front-end dump comparing 12z to 18z...the GFS is quite a bit warmer on the storm, we all know that. 12z@60 hours: 18z@54 hours: GFS is marginal for initial frozen precipitation here in the NW suburbs. Substantially warmer than the Euro but would probably be a mix to start here in Westchester. None of the models are showing all rain really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Anyone else notice the insanity of this model? It has the low over the Delmarva at 54 hrs, then moves it slightly NW by 60 hrs? Sure. This model has some issues, and this would explain the warmth. Does anyone else really think this storm is going to go NW between 54 and 60 hrs? That is also when the warm surge occurs on this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Anyone else notice the insanity of this model? It has the low over the Delmarva at 54 hrs, then moves it slightly NW by 60 hrs? Sure. This model has some issues, and this would explain the warmth. Does anyone else really think this storm is going to go NW between 54 and 60 hrs? That is also when the warm surge occurs on this model. I agree, it looks like it is going to hit the coast tracking NE/ENE, but then all of a sudden it gets pulled NW and the warmth rips northward through the area. More likely is a coastal storm limiting the northward surge of the warmth. I still think I-80 north sees 2-4" of snow (except extreme urban areas like Manhattan), and then a substantial chance of sleet and icing for those with some elevation in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nobody get excited yet, it may not translate downstream but big changes on the 00Z NAM through 24, 500 low no longer closed in Texas or OK and thus is more neutral and not negative and turning NE by 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I looked at 24 Hr and said to myself "Houston, we have a problem." In the end, it's probably not going to help much...BUT there are areas on this run where they were expecting a foot that may barely get an inch. Nobody get excited yet, it may not translate downstream but big changes on the 00Z NAM through 24, 500 low no longer closed in Texas or OK and thus is more neutral and not negative and turning NE by 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nobody get excited yet, it may not translate downstream but big changes on the 00Z NAM through 24, 500 low no longer closed in Texas or OK and thus is more neutral and not negative and turning NE by 24 hours. Call me crazy but 00Z NAM at 36 looks decidedly further southeast in TN compared to 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It is definitely further SE, but in the end, it doesn't matter. We get torched at 850 mb from SE winds and the 850 mb low is just too overwhelming and placed in a terrible position for us. Call me crazy but 00Z NAM at 36 looks decidedly further southeast in TN compared to 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It is definitely further SE, but in the end, it doesn't matter. We get torched at 850 mb from SE winds and the 850 mb low is just too overwhelming and placed in a terrible position for us. Trended colder than 18z....still way warmer than the Euro, which is a surprise from the usually cold-biased NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wow that is super warm, probably no snow for anyone .. The transfer looks a bit weird imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 00z NAM. 850 0c line into Upstate NY and NE PA before the onset of precip. Over 2.5" of rain for everyone. Major snowstorm for folks in Western and Central PA and Western New England. 60hr QPF ending hr 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 For what it's worth, the 0z RGEM is colder with the start of the storm, northern NJ has mod-heavy snow changing over to rain in NE NJ and freezing rain in NW NJ. The RGEM usually isn't too consistent though, especially 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 00z GFS is much colder at 850... not to mention the Canadian buries NNJ in snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wow, very close call on the GFS. Definitely starts out as snow with a front-end dump for Westchester, but 48 hours is a razor thin margin between snow and mixed precipitation for the northwest suburbs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah...0z gfs would put almost all of c nj in play for a 2-4" front end thump, then once around rt.80 and north... 6" plus...pretty close to 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Definitely ticked south again on the GFS, does this continue? i heard the HPC already threw out the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 00z GFS is much colder at 850... not to mention the Canadian buries NNJ in snow RGEM snow total - looks like 10-15 mm (0.4"-0.6") of snow in N NJ, looks a bit too cold though IMO. Even far NE NJ gets snow, I would be surprised if I get anything over 1-2" here at most (eastern Bergen county). With that said though the GFS also looks rather cold with the front end snow, not far from the NW suburbs getting something bigger but not as bullish as the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 RGEM snow total - looks like 10-15 mm (0.4"-0.6") of snow in N NJ, looks a bit too cold though IMO. Even far NE NJ gets snow, I would be surprised if I get anything over 1-2" here at most (eastern Bergen county). With that said though the GFS also looks rather cold with the front end snow, not far from the NW suburbs getting something bigger but not as bullish as the RGEM. The 12z Euro was pretty cold so the RGEM may not be too far off. 0z GFS definitely ticked a good bit colder as there was limited front-end here on the 12z and 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 A 50 mile SE shift with the gfs would markedly increase totals and put a lot of areas in play. The chance is low for something like that at this point but there's still a little bit of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The 12z Euro was pretty cold so the RGEM may not be too far off. 0z GFS definitely ticked a good bit colder as there was limited front-end here on the 12z and 18z runs. The trends do seem to be pointing to slightly colder, especially with the 0z GFS run. I still get mostly rain but with 2-4" barely a few miles away on the clown maps. Perhaps in the end it might not be enough for the immediate NW suburbs for more than some front end light snow, although if this trend continues interior areas could get more than currently expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 A 50 mile SE shift with the gfs would markedly increase totals and put a lot of areas in play. The chance is low for something like that at this point but there's still a little bit of hope. Sill 2 days for it to trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The trends do seem to be pointing to slightly colder, especially with the 0z GFS run. I still get mostly rain but with 2-4" barely a few miles away on the clown maps. Perhaps in the end it might not be enough for the immediate NW suburbs for more than some front end light snow, although if this trend continues interior areas could get more than currently expected. Agreed....I think the best-case scenario for my area (Central Westchester with minor elevation) is seeing 4-6" on the front end, going to sleet/ice and then dryslotting, as happens with some SW Flow events. I don't think we can stay all snow here as the antecedent airmass is only moderately cold (850s of -3C tomorrow night) and the low transfers fairly late. Hopefully we get a nice thump of snow, have a little sleet or ice, and then transition to drizzle as the low comes near and precipitation shuts off.. The 0z GFS was still warmer than the 12z ECM though, just so you know this isn't the coldest run. The 12z ECM had the 0C 850 line over NYC at 66 hours, whereas the 0z GFS at 54 hours has the 850mb freezing line over Poughkeepsie, about 80 miles to the north of NYC. Substantial difference as I get a much higher percent of frozen precipitation on the Euro than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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