PB GFI Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 That storm will decide the outcome of the next one. I have a feeling the euro is too strong with that storm yeh , I agree that will pull the trof to the coast ala GFS and CMC , create the baroclinic zone , so when i saw the euro for xmas - I wretched . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 That storm will decide the outcome of the next one. I have a feeling the euro is too strong with that storm It definitely is too strong, if you look at the confluence in ERN Canada at 96 hours as the Christmas wave is forming over southern Kansas its very strong, all of a sudden at 120 hours that confluence and vort in SE Canada is gone, it moves an absurd distance NE into the Atlantic in just 24 hours, that allows the wave to amplify and head into Ohio by 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 12z JMA is not too dissimilar from the 12z CMC's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 99% of us who live NW of the Tappan Zee post in the Hudson Valley sub forum. Even though we live in Uptons CWA we still feel like outsiders here in this sub forum. It appears like the trends are beginning to work in our favor lets hope this continues and in a few days we still see a legit chance. As Tom Petty said "the waiting is the hardest part". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z ECMWF ENS look quite a bit different than the operational. There is a transfer to a secondary at hour 168. The low pressure is by LI on this frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Very good analysis in this forum. I think anyone north of M/D line has a chance for some snow and this may be the case all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z ECMWF ENS look quite a bit different than the operational. There is a transfer to a secondary at hour 168. The low pressure is by LI on this frame. It's faster than the 0z ECM mean by about 12 hours but it's been quite consistent with the track over the last 2 days or so while the rest of the models (including GEFS) kept going back and forth... although consistency doesn't always mean accuracy, it's been consistently east of the OP ECM run, which IMO is too amplified with the clipper and could perhaps trend at least somewhat more south/east with the main event later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Christmas storm coming in strong on the 18z GFS. I still have this gut feeling that we're overlooking this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Christmas storm coming in strong on the 18z GFS. I still have this gut feeling that we're overlooking this event. Way further south than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z actually gives a swath of 1-3 inches from PHL to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 700rh field is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 There is a thread for xmass storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It always seems like it's the little events that we look over that we do the best instead of the main show we're all expecting. We could very well see a solid 1-3" snow for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 18z GFS is going to be S and E of the 12z run. Could be very ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It always seems like it's the little events that we look over that we do the best instead of the main show we're all expecting. We could very well see a solid 1-3" snow for Christmas. I just can't get it out of my system. I still have some weird feeling that this Christmas storm will over perform and actually end up being next week's main entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Looking really good at 138 hours. Less digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hr 144 gfs has two separate lows. Not going negative enough, will be a miss. Congrats dt land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I just can't get it out of my system. I still have some weird feeling that this Christmas storm will over perform and actually end up being next week's main entertainment. This could actually be a weenie's dream where we do well for the Christmas storm and it aids with the 27-28 storm, hopefully the Euro comes on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hr 153 carolina crusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 500mb pattern at 144 looks very promising...closed off, adequate heights our in front of the system. However, the surface depiction doesn't look nearly as good. Odd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Not too shabby. Sub 1000mb low over Hatteras by 153 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hr 159 ots...sking on the outerbanks would be good lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This could actually be a weenie's dream where we do well for the Christmas storm and it aids with the 27-28 storm, hopefully the Euro comes on board. I like to see the Euro come on board at least for X-mass. It's disconcerting how far north it goes, and it's in a range when the Euro is USUALLY, and I stress the USUALLY, fairly accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Swings OTS by 165, but we're still six days away. Trends are good to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The Christmas wave is more amplified on the 18z GFS. But the confluence is also stronger. It forces both storms to track south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'd rather the models show the storm OTS in this range than far inland, I'd prefer that over a bullseye in this range. Hopefully that means the Euro will trend further south and east with both systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Damn. It feels good to actually have something plausible to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Everything looks fine on the GFS at this range. The fact that the euro solution is becoming more and more unlikely is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 H5 looks pretty darn good. If we could get a negative tilt just a little sooner when the system is over Georgia, then this would have been a significant system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Still not far enough OTS for my taste. Would like to see the GFS even further OTS at this range. ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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