supermeh Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Storms like to hit the coast, my friend. Sounds like a solid front-end dump in Westchester on Euro. I would say so. 1 inch of frozen precip at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Even at hour 66, the 850 line is on top of NYC, with close to 1" of precip already fallen. But what's the surface like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Any snowfall output maps avail for the euro yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I would say so. 1 inch of frozen precip at least. The 0C isotherm at 850mb passes us between hours 66-72, but most of the precipitation has already fallen. Sounds like snow-->sleet/ice-->drizzle. Classic SW flow event in a cold airmass where most of the QPF falls before mid-levels warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 But what's the surface like? It's above freezing. But there could be a period of sleet for the coast. Regardless, it's feasible that we can get a few more bumps east tomorrow and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro is way colder than the 00z run at 78 hrs. Terrific solution for NW NJ/Southeast NY maybe to Zuckerland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro looks like dts snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The euro just some of u a tidy Xmas present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 0C isotherm at 850mb passes us between hours 66-72, but most of the precipitation has already fallen. Sounds like snow-->sleet/ice-->drizzle. Classic SW flow event in a cold airmass where most of the QPF falls before mid-levels warm. Moved up to somers now. So I am a bit north of you now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This may require a road trip to my friend's house in Blairstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro is way colder than the 00z run at 78 hrs. Terrific solution for NW NJ/Southeast NY maybe to Zuckerland. It sounds like I'm on the verge of staying all snow but just a little too warm on the 12z Euro. Close call for Southern Westchester, but at least we're getting a front-end dump locking in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Northwest NJ is now basically snow. Gotta be 6-12 inches now for NW NJ and 3-6 for NE New Jersey as they have surface temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Moved up to somers now. So I am a bit north of you now. The 0C 850 line is up to DXR though at 72 hours on the 12z Euro, so you've probably changed to sleet or ice at that point. It jumps north quite a bit between 66 hours and 72 hours, unfortunately. But we've already picked up nearly 1" of QPF by the time it passes us. If we can get 4-8" here plus ice, I'm not complaining when this looked like a drenching rainstorm. Things are definitely trending in our favor again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Northwest NJ is now basically snow. Gotta be 6-12 inches now for NW NJ and 3-6 for NE New Jersey as they have surface temp issues. Where would you say the 3" line is depicted on the euro, rt.78, rt.80, or north of there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ice would be a disaster up here in Sussex.trees still leaning on power lines from sandy. The 0C 850 line is up to DXR though at 72 hours on the 12z Euro, so you've probably changed to sleet or ice at that point. It jumps north quite a bit between 66 hours and 72 hours, unfortunately. But we've already picked up nearly 1" of QPF by the time it passes us. If we can get 4-8" here plus ice, I'm not complaining when this looked like a drenching rainstorm. Things are definitely trending in our favor again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It sounds like I'm on the verge of staying all snow but just a little too warm on the 12z Euro. Close call for Southern Westchester, but at least we're getting a front-end dump locking in now. Excellent. I'm looking forward to the front-end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Any euro maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This is why I was surprised when 90% of people wrote the event off yesterday. I think if there are future corrections they're likely to be slightly SE. The inland runner made no sense meteorologically w/o the energy transfer to the coast. We could easily turn this into a decent frozen event for the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ice would be a disaster up here in Sussex.trees still leaning on power lines from sandy. I would say if your at least 45 miles NW of NYC ice will be your least concern.. 12" of snow is looking more and more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This is why I was surprised when 90% of people wrote the event off yesterday. I think if there are future corrections they're likely to be slightly SE. The inland runner made no sense meteorologically w/o the energy transfer to the coast. We could easily turn this into a decent frozen event for the metro area. The event has been 100-150 miles or so from being a snow event for a big portion of the area now for a good 48 hours. This has potential to resemble 12/9/05 pretty closely where it could be entirely frozen just inland but places like JFK or Islip could see mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The event has been 100-150 miles or so from being a snow event for a big portion of the area now for a good 48 hours. This has potential to resemble 12/9/05 pretty closely where it could be entirely frozen just inland but places like JFK or Islip could see mostly rain. Nice. There'll definitely be more snow than rain for the LHV with that type of resemblance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nice. There'll definitely be more snow than rain for the LHV with that type of resemblance. Had about 8" from the 12/9/05 storm I believe here in Dobbs Ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Had about 8" from the 12/9/05 storm I believe here in Dobbs Ferry. I wonder if the GFS/NAM/EURO will push the LP any further SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Where would you say the 3" line is depicted on the euro, rt.78, rt.80, or north of there? Rt. 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I wonder if the GFS/NAM/EURO will push the LP any further SE? The GEFS were already just southeast of the 12z operational run. The GFS was by far the worst of all the models with this storm for the past few days, and yes, I am even including the NOGAPS in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Now that the midweek storm is trending colder and 6-12 numbers spit out for nw NJ, what would that translate into up in Sullivan County at 1,600 feet?. I'm conjfused with tonight, wcbs/WINS all say 1-2 N and NW of NYC but up here they're calling for 1-2 inches too, thought 2-4 would be more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Now that the midweek storm is trending colder and 6-12 numbers spit out for nw NJ, what would that translate into up in Sullivan County at 1,600 feet?. I'm conjfused with tonight, wcbs/WINS all say 1-2 N and NW of NYC but up here they're calling for 1-2 inches too, thought 2-4 would be more likely. The 12z GFS gridded forecast for Monticello (that I pulled from Weatherbell) spits out 8" of snow before a possible changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z GFS surface parameters KSMQ http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KSMQ.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 12z GFS gridded forecast for Monticello (that I pulled from Weatherbell) spits out 8" of snow before a possible changeover. Does it show total QPF for tonight in Monticello ,and midweek, if there is no changeover what would that qpf mean snow wise? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Does it show total QPF for tonight in Monticello ,and midweek, if there is no changeover what would that qpf mean snow wise? Thanks Surface parameters KMSV 12z GFS http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KMSV.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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