PB GFI Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 If I remember correctly, my forecast called for mostly rain/changeover to rain the night of the 13th, but I knew something was up when my winds remained NELY and surface temps flat-lined in the mid/upper 20s. What followed was an impressive ice/sleet event for my county. Problem this time around is I think the surface temperatures aren't as cold to start with, so it would be warmer given the GFS verbatim, and generally rain for the coast. Good memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Highly doubt we see plain rain up this way. ZR maybe but I think we are in store for a major winter storm up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That was the storm the nam was off by 10 degrees. One big difference. That storm ran into a cold dome of air. If I remember right it was in the upper 20s the whole time. Ths time we start at 40 Temps were in the teens when that storm started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Highly doubt we see plain rain up this way. ZR maybe but I think we are in store for a major winter storm up this way. I think you might go over to rain...the trend is definitely slightly east, however. The 0z GFS even looked as if it might give Westchester 2-4" front end dump so you'd undoubtedly see more. 0z ECM will be telling as to how warm things get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think you might go over to rain...the trend is definitely slightly east, however. The 0z GFS even looked as if it might give Westchester 2-4" front end dump so you'd undoubtedly see more. 0z ECM will be telling as to how warm things get. Seen this scenario a million times and very rarely do we get above freezing.. Maybe the mid-levels torch but as for plain rain.. highly doubt it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looking at the re-analysis on ewall its amazing that event stayed all frozen, it basically showed the same screaming SE flow this one does. Yeah looking back at the regional obs for that event, there was a very impressive antecedent airmass in place with sfc temps widespread in the 20s upon onset of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Seen this scenario a million times and very rarely do we get above freezing.. Maybe the mid-levels torch but as for plain rain.. highly doubt it.. What do you think for down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What do you think for down here? You'll likely change to rain before the coast given your proximity to the mid level warm tongue at your elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think you might go over to rain...the trend is definitely slightly east, however. The 0z GFS even looked as if it might give Westchester 2-4" front end dump so you'd undoubtedly see more. 0z ECM will be telling as to how warm things get. 12z Euro actually nails MBY pretty good.. But I do agree that the 0z Euro should be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well, here in Liberty NY driving up here this past Thursday night, right when I passed Middletown NY, snow began, and we wound up with an inch before the following morning's deluge. Tomorrow night, 2-4 inches predicted, Wednesday into thursday, probably ALL wintry here and maybe a good snowstorm at that, and perhaps Saturday into Sunday too. I'm 1,600 feet up, it makes a difference. Looks like an exciting week up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You'll likely change to rain before the coast given your proximity to the mid level warm tongue at your elevation. hahahahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What do you think for down here? I can see southern westchester receiving a quick 1-3" before a change to ip/zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I can see southern westchester receiving a quick 1-3" before a change to ip/zr Yeah I was thinking 1-3" snow, quick transition to sleet/freezing rain, and then all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well, here in Liberty NY driving up here this past Thursday night, right when I passed Middletown NY, snow began, and we wound up with an inch before the following morning's deluge. Tomorrow night, 2-4 inches predicted, Wednesday into thursday, probably ALL wintry here and maybe a good snowstorm at that, and perhaps Saturday into Sunday too. I'm 1,600 feet up, it makes a difference. Looks like an exciting week up here. You guys up in Sullivan should have no worries this week. Im pretty sure you guys cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You guys up in Sullivan should have no worries this week. Im pretty sure you guys cash in Amazing, right after exit 120 it all changes, the elevation rises almost 1,000 feet within two miles once you reach the Wurtsboro hill. But even here, lake effect snows always seem a bit too North of here. Love the climate here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You'll likely change to rain before the coast given your proximity to the mid level warm tongue at your elevation. what? i think thats a typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Amazing, right after exit 120 it all changes, the elevation rises almost 1,000 feet within two miles once you reach the Wurtsboro hill. But even here, lake effect snows always seem a bit too North of here. Love the climate here. I drive that route because my family has a vacation home in the extreme northern Poconos (Lake Como, PA). There is a distinct difference in vegetation and climate between Exit 118 (Hudson Valley) and Exit 112 (Catksills). It's a pretty dramatic change in the landscape and weather, as well, very impressive. I could still see the Liberty area mixing as the 850 mb 0C contour gets ripped really far north, especially that far west where you're closest to the mid-level warmth. I would think you'd hold onto the surface cold, though, and get ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 what? i think thats a typo He is kidding around because I always jokingly mention my 350' elevation, and everyone calls where I live Mt. Zucker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0z Euro now has most of Northwest New Jersey, especially Sussex County as mostly snow. Strange to say, but it has actually been trending on the last two runs toward the colder NOGAPS solution, which showed nearly all snow in Northwest New Jersey and the NOGAPS has trended slightly colder on its last three runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like the 06z GFS is colder than the 00z. Should be interesting to see if this trend continues into the 12z suite or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0z Euro now has most of Northwest New Jersey, especially Sussex County as mostly snow. Strange to say, but it has actually been trending on the last two runs toward the colder NOGAPS solution, which showed nearly all snow in Northwest New Jersey and the NOGAPS has trended slightly colder on its last three runs. 0z Euro is pretty much an all snow event for Orange county and most of Sussex County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This is my "Irony Storm". Part of the reason I moved to Sussex County, NJ was so I wouldn't be on the 'borderline' of storms, having grown up in Monmouth County and spending the last 10 years in SE PA! The shift East has made things very interesting for Sussex County, NJ and even just 25 or so more miles could make a major difference... That said, I'm seeing the Euro called for 'mostly' or 'all' snow at this point --- can any Mets verify? Thanks and apologize for any IMBY feel to that question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z runs should be interesting. As much as I'd like to get excited about the 6z GFS ticking east a bit, the 6z NAM seemed to tick the same amount west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z runs should be interesting. As much as I'd like to get excited about the 6z GFS ticking east a bit, the 6z NAM seemed to tick the same amount west. I'd take the GFS ticking anywhere than the NAM out this far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'd take the GFS ticking anywhere than the NAM out this far... I won't argue with that ..... if we see another similar tick on the 12z GFS, there will be some more interested/happier people on here. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0z Euro is pretty much an all snow event for Orange county and most of Sussex County. Any snow fall numbers from the euro for this area. Making trip back to the area tomorow afternoon. Hoping the nam/GFS become more favorable for snow/sleet Cheers, Darkstar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The NAM seems to be trending back east a bit and developing the system further SE, leading to a bit of a colder solution for some areas there. Really not enough to make a difference at all here, but I guess worth noting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is making things really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is making things really interesting. How so? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Just north of the city and nw nj could have a nice storm from this....maybe an inch or so from rt.78 north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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