sn0w Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's over Once again...not all of us live in Brooklyn. It's not over for Putnam/Orange/Rockland counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Once again...not all of us live in Brooklyn. It's not over for Putnam/Orange/Rockland counties. Don't forget Westchester. I agree with Anthony that this threat is done for the City proper. Too much BL warming on southerly winds ahead of the primary, and 850s are marginal anyway. For the majority of posters on the board who live in NYC proper or in the suburbs immediately east/west of the City, you're not going to see anything from this system. Those of us who have some elevation in Westchester, Rockland, Putnam, Orange etc could still see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm somewhat surprised that most are writing this off given it's still at 84 hrs. We've seen significant changes up through 24-48 hrs before. Is it going to be a big snow for the coast? No, probably not. But I certainly wouldn't go calling off any snow at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 East is least west is best the mother fletcher SSTS our friends to the north do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm somewhat surprised that most are writing this off given it's still at 84 hrs. We've seen significant changes up through 24-48 hrs before. Is it going to be a big snow for the coast? No, probably not. But I certainly wouldn't go calling off any snow at this time frame. Absolutely, could not agree more. As it is, the Euro is currently showing the rain/ice/snow line only about 50 miles north of New York City, nearly 4 days away. As is, it might produce a few inches of snow in most of the north and west suburbs according to the Euro and possibly the JMA and the UKMET, and the GFS is not that far behind really. We still have more than 3 days and only 50 miles to go to make the difference between a big rainstorm and a really big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Is anyone looking into the wind potential with this? I'm not an expert with forecasting wind gust potential although the NAM and GFS have a moderate LLJ with 925mb winds up to 60-70 knots along with the heavy rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Absolutely, could not agree more. As it is, the Euro is currently showing the rain/ice/snow line only about 50 miles north of New York City, nearly 4 days away. As is, it might produce a few inches of snow in most of the north and west suburbs according to the Euro and possibly the JMA and the UKMET, and the GFS is not that far behind really. We still have more than 3 days and only 50 miles to go to make the difference between a big rainstorm and a really big snowstorm. I know it's the NAM at 84 hours. But shows frozen percip north and west of the city for at leadt several hours. Looks like ice really, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Is anyone looking into the wind potential with this? I'm not an expert with forecasting wind gust potential although the NAM and GFS have a moderate LLJ with 925mb winds up to 60-70 knots along with the heavy rain: As long as the low level lapse rates are unstable (>7K/km) there will be no problem mixing down gusts close to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 As long as the low level lapse rates are unstable (>7K/km) there will be no problem mixing down gusts close to 50. We could see wind gusts to 60mph+, with 55kt winds being shown by 18z GFS below the inversion. Full moon also later this week. So coastal flooding will be an issue.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 18z GEFS is a good 100 miles southeast of the operational run. Still not good enough for us, but it is closer. At 84 hrs the operational run has the low centered near State College, while the GEFS has the low centered near Philly. At 90 hrs. the operational run has the low centered near Binghamton, while the GEFS has the low centered near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I was just looking at the NOGAPS and the Canadian in high resolution on the Wright-Weather website. I mean you almost forget about these models because they are simply not very good, but we are getting close enough in now that they are useful for something, especially when they seem so close to the JMA and the UKMET. BOTH the NOGAPS and the Canadian have what appears to be a very significant snowstorm for Northern, especially Northwest New Jersey on the 12z run. The JMA and UKMET we have to king of guess at because of the 24 hour intervals, but it is possible that they could also be a snowstorm just northwest of NYC from the looks of it. The UKMET and the JMA tracks seem to be very similar to the Canadian and the NOGAPS at 12z which definitely show a big time snowstorm just northwest of NYC. Is it possible that the Euro and the GFS are too far NW. I mean the UKMET is definitely not a bad model and the JMA is not horrible either. I was actually shocked at how both the Canadian and the NOGAPS had very similar solutions and honestly the UKMET and JMA look very similar as far as I can tell with the 24 hour time steps. This might get interesting for areas just northwest of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 And now the 18z NOGAPS just came in even slightly further southeast, maybe 25 miles or so and slightly colder as a result. This is getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 And now the 18z NOGAPS just came in even slightly further southeast, maybe 25 miles or so and slightly colder as a result. This is getting interesting. The 18z NAM is close too. Northwest jersey stays frozen for at least 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 18z NAM is close too. Northwest jersey stays frozen for at least 6 hours. There's a low level cold wedge but the mid levels are torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 18z NAM is close too. Northwest jersey stays frozen for at least 6 hours. The models do not generally pick up on front end snows well here beyond 72 hours or so outside of cases with very strong cold air masses in place. I don't think there is any way NYC/LI/coastal CT see front end snows with the setup RIGHT NOW on most models but certainly HPN/POU/FWN/DXR/ would be prone in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 There's a low level cold wedge but the mid levels are torching. Yes. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 With the holiday I am off work and I have spent quite a bit of time analyzing things today. As of right now, it appears to me that the UKMET, the JMA, the Canadian, and the NOGAPS produce a significant if not major snowstorm for Northwest New Jersey as of the 12z runs. The NOGAPS just came in even about 25 miles further southeast than the 12z run, so it is even colder still. The GFS is pretty clearly the odd model out with its solution of the low sitting over State College and is therefore WAY too warm. The Euro is somewhere in between, producing 3-6 inches of snow in Northwest New Jersey on the 12z run. The Canadian and NOGAPS were nearly all snow for this storm in Northwest New Jersey, which I only realized after looking at them on Wright-Weather's high resolution website. On the other websites the Canadian looked like it would be too warm with the low further north, but in high resolution you can see that the low is centered more near Atlantic City on the 12z Canadian, as it is with the 12z and 18z NOGAPS. The UKMET also places the low near Atlantic City, so I can only assume this would also lead to a snowy solution in Northwest New Jersey. It appears that the JMA would have the same solution, but the 24 hr time steps make it difficult to see, but it definitely looks that way to me. So we have model number 1 (Euro) with 3-6 inches in Northwest New Jersey currently and 50 miles away from being all snow in our area, model number 2 (UKMET) highly likely showing a snowy solution in our area, model number 3 (GFS) out in la la land, and models number 4, 5, and 6 all showing a very snowy solution. Let's see where my hard work today takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We could see wind gusts to 60mph+, with 55kt winds being shown by 18z GFS below the inversion. Full moon also later this week. So coastal flooding will be an issue.: A soaking rainstorm, and southerly howling winds to cause more beach erosion and flooding. Just about all Long Beach needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brenjames Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 With the holiday I am off work and I have spent quite a bit of time analyzing things today. As of right now, it appears to me that the UKMET, the JMA, the Canadian, and the NOGAPS produce a significant if not major snowstorm for Northwest New Jersey as of the 12z runs. The NOGAPS just came in even about 25 miles further southeast than the 12z run, so it is even colder still. The GFS is pretty clearly the odd model out with its solution of the low sitting over State College and is therefore WAY too warm. The Euro is somewhere in between, producing 3-6 inches of snow in Northwest New Jersey on the 12z run. The Canadian and NOGAPS were nearly all snow for this storm in Northwest New Jersey, which I only realized after looking at them on Wright-Weather's high resolution website. On the other websites the Canadian looked like it would be too warm with the low further north, but in high resolution you can see that the low is centered more near Atlantic City on the 12z Canadian, as it is with the 12z and 18z NOGAPS. The UKMET also places the low near Atlantic City, so I can only assume this would also lead to a snowy solution in Northwest New Jersey. It appears that the JMA would have the same solution, but the 24 hr time steps make it difficult to see, but it definitely looks that way to me. So we have model number 1 (Euro) with 3-6 inches in Northwest New Jersey currently and 50 miles away from being all snow in our area, model number 2 (UKMET) highly likely showing a snowy solution in our area, model number 3 (GFS) out in la la land, and models number 4, 5, and 6 all showing a very snowy solution. Let's see where my hard work today takes us. They added the J MA to the graphic LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This was the 18z GFS from Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 With the holiday I am off work and I have spent quite a bit of time analyzing things today. As of right now, it appears to me that the UKMET, the JMA, the Canadian, and the NOGAPS produce a significant if not major snowstorm for Northwest New Jersey as of the 12z runs. The NOGAPS just came in even about 25 miles further southeast than the 12z run, so it is even colder still. The GFS is pretty clearly the odd model out with its solution of the low sitting over State College and is therefore WAY too warm. The Euro is somewhere in between, producing 3-6 inches of snow in Northwest New Jersey on the 12z run. The Canadian and NOGAPS were nearly all snow for this storm in Northwest New Jersey, which I only realized after looking at them on Wright-Weather's high resolution website. On the other websites the Canadian looked like it would be too warm with the low further north, but in high resolution you can see that the low is centered more near Atlantic City on the 12z Canadian, as it is with the 12z and 18z NOGAPS. The UKMET also places the low near Atlantic City, so I can only assume this would also lead to a snowy solution in Northwest New Jersey. It appears that the JMA would have the same solution, but the 24 hr time steps make it difficult to see, but it definitely looks that way to me. So we have model number 1 (Euro) with 3-6 inches in Northwest New Jersey currently and 50 miles away from being all snow in our area, model number 2 (UKMET) highly likely showing a snowy solution in our area, model number 3 (GFS) out in la la land, and models number 4, 5, and 6 all showing a very snowy solution. Let's see where my hard work today takes us. It's true some of today's modeling was pretty snowy for far NW NJ. But with some models showing a strong warm layer above 850mb, and some showing warmth under 850, there could be a lot of sleet (or even ZR) with all of those solutions. I would hedge towards mixing unless and until the SLP gets east of a particular location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is a coastal hugger. East of the 18z run. Also colder. Goes right over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is a coastal hugger. East of the 18z run. Also colder. Goes right over NYC. Definitely trended towards a front end thump for a lot of areas around NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Definitely trended towards a front end thump for a lot of areas around NYC. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfssnow078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The H5 low treks essentially E/ENE upon reaching Ohio's latitude. What a difference in H5 evolution from the 18z run, and as I said before, I doubt changes are finished. The potential track as progged reminds me of the Feb 14 2007 event, with a primary up to OH, secondary transfer which hugged the coast, and a pretty strong sfc high in sern Canada. The resultant weather was a widespread snowstorm for the interior Northeast and a lot of sleet/ice down to the coast. Not saying it'll be similar, just an observation as a potential track/synoptic analog. Courtesy of Ray's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is a coastal hugger. East of the 18z run. Also colder. Goes right over NYC. Colder ? Yes 45 not 50 as per 0z surface temps my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Colder ? Yes 45 not 50 as per 0z surface temps my man well has more of a front end snow for nw burbs which would go to rain of course. 18z and 12z didnt have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The H5 low treks essentially E/ENE upon reaching Ohio's latitude. What a difference in H5 evolution from the 18z run, and as I said before, I doubt changes are finished. The potential track as progged reminds me of the Feb 14 2007 event, with a primary up to OH, secondary transfer which hugged the coast, and a pretty strong sfc high in sern Canada. The resultant weather was a widespread snowstorm for the interior Northeast and a lot of sleet/ice down to the coast. Not saying it'll be similar, just an observation as a potential track/synoptic analog. Courtesy of Ray's site Looking at the re-analysis on ewall its amazing that event stayed all frozen, it basically showed the same screaming SE flow this one does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looking at the re-analysis on ewall its amazing that event stayed all frozen, it basically showed the same screaming SE flow this one does. If I remember correctly, my forecast called for mostly rain/changeover to rain the night of the 13th, but I knew something was up when my winds remained NELY and surface temps flat-lined in the mid/upper 20s. What followed was an impressive ice/sleet event for my county. Problem this time around is I think the surface temperatures aren't as cold to start with, so it would be warmer given the GFS verbatim, and generally rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looking at the re-analysis on ewall its amazing that event stayed all frozen, it basically showed the same screaming SE flow this one does. That was the storm the nam was off by 10 degrees. One big difference. That storm ran into a cold dome of air. If I remember right it was in the upper 20s the whole time. Ths time we start at 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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