cleetussnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 gfs looks a little better, the high to the north is modelled at 1033 now, up from 1027, so a little more of a block effect. but can it transfer? better chance this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 06z and 12z runs of the NAM and GFS are insistent on wrapping up the mid-level lows and accompanying surface low well to the west. We would need some pretty large changes moving into the short term to make something good happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 gfs looks a little better, the high to the north is modelled at 1033 now, up from 1027, so a little more of a block effect. but can it transfer? better chance this time. To me, the GFS looks like it took a big step towards the Euro. However, the transfer looks "odd" is the best way to put it. Tracking the secondary from Central Virginia up to Philly seems unusual to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yea, GFS makes little sense at this time. It looks like it wants to transfer, but does not. I would discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This run looks weird to me. Surface low placement doesn't make sense. Still going to be a bunch of rain regardless of low placement, because of the onshore winds, and placement of 700 mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Wow...I just realized that the 6z GFS actually produces a swath of 2"+ of rain from the south all the way past NYC. Some serious rains from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 On a positive note...it seems to be set in stone that from the 27th onward, we are truly in a colder, more wintry pattern....not a pattern moving AWAY from it. Without a doubt we WILL get a winter storm between the 30th and 5th of january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Also, don't look now, but it looks like it's going to really crank a big Apps runner around 144 hrs. There could be quite a phased storm on this run for the Dec. 29th system. The only positive thing that I see is that it's still pos. tilted at 120 Hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Also, don't look now, but it looks like it's going to really crank a big Apps runner around 144 hrs. There could be quite a phased storm on this run for the Dec. 29th system. The only positive thing that I see is that it's still pos. tilted at 120 Hr. There is a thread for that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 STFU. Love you too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 STFU. What in the f*ck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Also, don't look now, but it looks like it's going to really crank a big Apps runner around 144 hrs. There could be quite a phased storm on this run for the Dec. 29th system. The only positive thing that I see is that it's still pos. tilted at 120 Hr. It goes OTS..sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yep, but very close. I rather see OTS at this point, but it is very close. It goes OTS..sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yep, but very close. I rather see OTS at this point, but it is very close. This is the storm that I'm excited about. We're out to sea now at the same time frame that the 27th storm was hitting us hard. Good signs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Ukie transfers off the NJ coast and then goes near LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Sorry just a little bit off-topic but pertaining to the model discussion....I've been using the NCEP site for years...just recently maybe the past several month or so, it is VERY slow and takes around 3-5 seconds to open the next page. If I click on GFS, a few seconds to load, click on 12 hours, another few seconds....then back button, the same. Is everyone experiencing this ? And what do you all use to view these models in the best way possible ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 can I ask you who asked the individual who made the comment to say there is a thread for the next event to point that out? There are moderators for that...just zayin im here to read real information, not horrible model interpretations from people who know nothing...again just saying The post was in good faith, and has no ill intentions about it. You should be the last person laying down the rules, last I read you thought mods were all power hungry. I agree about good discussion. I hate when people say 1-3 or no big deal, and NYC ends up with 2 feet. Or when a poster is 5 ppd or has be suspended several times during events, and still allowed to post. You had a great forecast February 2010. Oh by the way, "just saying" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z GGEM went east. Low goes right over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The post was in good faith, and has no ill intentions about it. You should be the last person laying down the rules, last I read you thought mods were all power hungry. I agree about good discussion. I hate when people say 1-3 or no big deal, and NYC ends up with 2 feet. Or when a poster is 5 ppd or has be suspended several times during events, and still allowed to post. You had a great forecast February 2010. Oh by the way, "just saying" i think you meant "great statement" i've never made a forecast ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z gefs went east. I see a secondary over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The Dec 30 storm is going to be another thread the needle. We would need the Dec 27 storm to hang around as a 50/50 as much as possible. There's going to be an inverted trough headed towards the lake, if the 50/50 holds we could see redevelopment in the SE off the coast. Miller B ish. Long ways out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 So now the GFS essentially stalls the sfc low over us post transfer. Do folks actually believe that will happen? Or that today's runs will be the final solution? The 12z GFS makes more sense than previous runs holding onto the primary, but it's still a strange look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Enough... take the sniping to PM, and keep it out of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro looks the same as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro looks the same as 0z. No it doesnt. Its a bit west dude. Center up over philly. Time to check out of ths thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 No it doesnt. Its a bit west dude. Center up over philly. Time to check out of ths thread It looks the same to me . This storm looked so good at one time . Onto the 30th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It looks the same to me . This storm looked so good at one time . Onto the 30th storm. The 0z Euro gave me 3-4" of front-end dump, and potential icing, so I'm not giving up yet. The storm might be over for southern Brooklyn but not for people who have some elevation in the suburbs, who could still be saved by an earlier transfer. The New Year's period looks interesting with the coastal OTS and then the coldest weather of the season coming in as per Euro/GFS, probably saving this from being a top 3 warm December. NYC has only gotten down to 29F for its minimum this month, and yesterday was the first day that had a high in the 30s all month for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 0z Euro gave me 3-4" of front-end dump, and potential icing, so I'm not giving up yet. The storm might be over for southern Brooklyn but not for people who have some elevation in the suburbs, who could still be saved by an earlier transfer. The New Year's period looks interesting with the coastal OTS and then the coldest weather of the season coming in as per Euro/GFS, probably saving this from being a top 3 warm December. NYC has only gotten down to 29F for its minimum this month, and yesterday was the first day that had a high in the 30s all month for KNYC. wunderground 12z euro clown map still shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 12z Euro ensemble mean is warmer then the the operational run, looks much like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's over I'm still hoping to pull an inch or two up here from the big system, but even that looks unlikely at this point with the ECM shifting slightly west and the ENS being even warmer. I think NW suburbs could see a front-end dump but we're dealing with a marginal airmass so it's definitely questionable. With lows only getting to the mid-upper 20s Christmas night, we don't have a lot of margin for error. Beijing, China (at a lower latitude than NYC) has just hit 0F. Central Park hasn't hit 0F in 19 years. We need to get some of that Asian cold onto this side of the hemisphere. The last few years have been very favorable for cold weather in Asia and Europe, but not so much over here. Let's hope the PV shifts back onto our side for January. At least that would give us a chance with the -PNA causing lows to track west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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