SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 12/29-30 potential actually looks decent, the Pacific is cooperating, there's a nice 50/50 low and more cold air in place, but given what's happened in less than 24 hrs on the models, it's pure fantasy at this point. It's best at this point to handle one storm system at a time whether it's rain/snow or mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 0z GGEM is bad. It is trying to transfer but it's having a hard time to. Trends toward the GFS. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 There is an epic fish storm a 174. Right where we want it. I noticed when it comes to us getting snowstorms, it's always those depicted out to see in the medium range that we benefit the most out of. That's exactly where you want it to stay and hopefully it stays that way for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The NOGAPS and GEM Both show more classic coastal transfers, the GFS I think is clueless on the fact this won't remain solely a primary low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I noticed when it comes to us getting snowstorms, it's always those depicted out to see in the medium range that we benefit the most out of. That's exactly where you want it to stay and hopefully it stays that way for a few days. The ones that start going into the lakes tend to stay bad news for us, no matter ow many times they jump east on models. To much ground to cover. I think we have to eat a cold rain storm to set up the 50 50, to get the the following system to go over the benchmark. It will happen. There is cold air for sure. Just a little help from the PAC and we can shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Honestly, I don't think the sampling of the vort in the Pacific matters, since the main issue is how we have lost lots of confluence between the storm and the block, so our block isn't really blocking anything anymore. We get a similar situation to a few days ago (though a bit colder since the blocking isn't totally bootleg but you know what I mean) where the ridging ahead of the storm is bridging with the block, creating very high heights. A change in the sampling of the vort in the PAC will not change the fact that the block and confluence are simply not going to be enough given the poor PAC pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 0z Ukie trended west. Shows a coastal hugger but looks much better than the GFS. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=096 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Honestly, I don't think the sampling of the vort in the Pacific matters, since the main issue is how we have lost lots of confluence between the storm and the block, so our block isn't really blocking anything anymore. We get a similar situation to a few days ago (though a bit colder since the blocking isn't totally bootleg but you know what I mean) where the ridging ahead of the storm is bridging with the block, creating very high heights. A change in the sampling of the vort in the PAC will not change the fact that the block and confluence are simply not going to be enough given the poor PAC pattern. Yeah no doubt the confluence is not hanging around as long as earlier models projected. It's not far enough south to really force an energy transfer that helps us. However, we see how this Christmas wave is being dampened in tonight's runs. I'm just wondering if better sampling could yield a short wave that is not as potent as currently progged, which might lead to a slower amplification/neg tilt in the Eastern US. The intensity of the short wave itself is part of the problem IMO, as it's progged to deepen way too rapidly in the deep south, and then the secondary problem is the lack of confluence, which permits the strong s/w to cut way inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah no doubt the confluence is not hanging around as long as earlier models projected. It's not far enough south to really force an energy transfer that helps us. However, we see how this Christmas wave is being dampened in tonight's runs. I'm just wondering if better sampling could yield a short wave that is not as potent as currently progged, which might lead to a slower amplification/neg tilt in the Eastern US. The intensity of the short wave itself is part of the problem IMO, as it's progged to deepen way too rapidly in the deep south, and then the secondary problem is the lack of confluence, which permits the strong s/w to cut way inland. The UKMET/GGEM/RGEM refuse to dampen that Christmas system and still make it quite strong. I don't know whether they are onto something or not, as I've said before the American models tend to have problems with SW flow events beyond 24-48 hours and have been outperformed before by the UKMET/GGEM on these systems. If the models are screwing that first system up the entire 2nd system could be botched as well which would really make this week more interesting for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 From my experience, the UKmet has been leagues behind the Euro and GFS. I place it in the same category as the NOGAPS; basically useless, except to build confidence in the GFS/Euro suites. GGEM used to be one helluva model, but it has also been very erratic over the past several years. The UKMET/GGEM/RGEM refuse to dampen that Christmas system and still make it quite strong. I don't know whether they are onto something or not, as I've said before the American models tend to have problems with SW flow events beyond 24-48 hours and have been outperformed before by the UKMET/GGEM on these systems. If the models are screwing that first system up the entire 2nd system could be botched as well which would really make this week more interesting for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah, I find the UKMET to be quite overrated. It may score well in 500mb anomaly correlations, but that does not mean it's a good model operationally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GGEM bites the dust. 989 low over Leesburg, Va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GGEM bites the dust. 989 low over Leesburg, Va Yeah the 0z GGEM definitely bears a resemblence to the 0z GFS. Model consensus has lately been locking onto unfavorable solutions for east coast snow around day 3, and refusing to budge thereafter. It would be hard to bet against that trend with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah the 0z GGEM definitely bears a resemblence to the 0z GFS. Model consensus has lately been locking onto unfavorable solutions for east coast snow around day 3, and refusing to budge thereafter. It would be hard to bet against that trend with this one. Just a poor overall pattern for East Coast snow, and until that materially changes it will be quite tough for us to get anything meaningful. We'll be congrats-ing Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, etc many times as long as we have a neutral to negative PNA and poor confluence/blocking. Nothing to stop any digging trough over the Plains from generating a mega Lakes cutter or Apps runner. Maybe this can be one that jackpots Ohio and W NY/PA like the March 2008 one, but it's hard for me to see it being that great east of there besides tons of sleet or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 For those thinking it's a poor pattern, you're not going to get 09-10 10-11 type patterns every winter, those are not the norm but rather the exception. In fact, having a completely favorable east coast snow pattern is a rarity and we make the best of what we got. At least we have a shot to make something happen this time of year compared to last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro bumped east a bit, transfer occurs alittle earlier. Might be front end snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro bumped east a bit, transfer occurs alittle earlier. Might be front end snow 0z ECM is well east...tracks it from Delaware to just SE of Long Island to near Cape Cod. Much better run for those in the NYC area. One more bump east and we're mostly snow in the suburbs. Verbatim on 0z there's still taint but the confluence is stronger so this is a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 0z ECM is well east...tracks it from Delaware to just SE of Long Island to near Cape Cod. Much better run for those in the NYC area. One more bump east and we're mostly snow in the suburbs. Verbatim on 0z there's still taint but the confluence is stronger so this is a good trend. agreed. Some more confluence hangs back in SE canada and the transfer is alittle better. Very interesting. A 60 mile bump east and things start looking up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 what does it show for the Christmas storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 what does it show for the Christmas storm?? It is really weak, but light QPF is all over the place. Not sure about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 0z ECM is well east...tracks it from Delaware to just SE of Long Island to near Cape Cod. Much better run for those in the NYC area. One more bump east and we're mostly snow in the suburbs. Verbatim on 0z there's still taint but the confluence is stronger so this is a good trend. The wunderground maps show a nice "front two-thirds dump" for the NW burbs and northern NJ. It's pretty impressive actually, your own Mt. Zucker gets in on a weenie panel of 4-5" in a 3-hour span. Check it out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro snowmap from Accuweather pro shows 1-3 inches of snow for NYC before it changes to rain .More to the north and west of the City. Just to the west. It is so close. Euro is an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Upton now says the gfs is too west. Has been discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Upton now says the gfs is too west. Has been discounted. Upton Attention turns toward next system. The system will begin to takeshape as the energy moves across the western portion of the country Monday. This southern stream trough tracks across the Gulf states Tuesday...then deepens as it heads up the tenn and Ohio valleys Tuesday night/Wed. Surface low develops over Texas along a cold front and tracks from the Gulf states up the Appalachians toward eastern Kentucky/eastern tenn by Wednesday am. Latest HPC surface forecasts clustered with European model (ecmwf)...gefs mean and operational GFS by that time. Then would expect secondary formation near the middle Atlantic coast late Wednesday and Wednesday night...with the surface low passing nearby or just south per European model (ecmwf). Operational GFS is a western outlier...although other ensemble members support a western track. However given consensus track close to the coast...and expected middle and upper level pattern...would expect mainly rain with this event...with interior sections possibly observing wintry mix. However...a slight shift in track could make a big difference...so stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 When places down in Oklahoma and Arkansas begin talking about record snow amounts from this storm, you have to starting looking hard at the storm as the likelihood of record snows is slim and something could change drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 When places down in Oklahoma and Arkansas begin talking about record snow amounts from this storm, you have to starting looking hard at the storm as the likelihood of record snows is slim and something could change drastically. So, the rule of thumb is of OK and AR are getting snow, its a big no for our area? Is it because the trough goes on a negative tilt too early? (typically for us to get snow, stay on a positive tilt until AL-GA-NC-SC areas then go negative) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I've seemed to notice over the years that we usually do not get snow in our neck of the woods until Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas have received some type of wintry event....usually from a preceding system, sometimes the same one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 So, the rule of thumb is of OK and AR are getting snow, its a big no for our area? Is it because the trough goes on a negative tilt too early? (typically for us to get snow, stay on a positive tilt until AL-GA-NC-SC areas then go negative) There have been cases where OK has gotten snow and we have down the line but its unusual, the setups which require a big snow in places like Wichita/Tulsa/OKC very rarely are favorable for DC/PHL/NYC downstream. They tend to get big snows from closed lows or surface lows going NE from roughly Texarkana to the bootheel of Missouri...if you ever see either of those scenarios you're in trouble here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If they get light snows in a very cold regime (fresh arctic airmass in place over the NE) I usually don't get nervous. Some of the amateurs and a few of the chasers are talking about the clown maps showing >12 in. for some locales. That's usually a red flag of either a Apps. runner or bad modelling. I think in this situation, it's a combination of the two. I think they get snow down there, but we'll see about the amounts. I like the Euro, but in the end, it won't matter as the stagnancy of the airmass in place will not allow for any changeover once the system transfers to the coast. So, the rule of thumb is of OK and AR are getting snow, its a big no for our area? Is it because the trough goes on a negative tilt too early? (typically for us to get snow, stay on a positive tilt until AL-GA-NC-SC areas then go negative) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The Euro has the 850 level and the surface temps below freezing for Sussex County, NJ for almost the entire storm, with more than 1 inch precip having fallen at Andover with both the surface and 850 level below freezing. The ensemble mean is however still a bit warmer than the operational run at 0z, so we will have to see what happens, but the Euro nearly went back to what it showed yesterday at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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