Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 In this current pattern, there are multiple s/w's to watch. "Next time" is already 156 Hrs out and appears like it has some good potential. Well there's always next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 In this current pattern, there are multiple s/w's to watch. "Next time" is already 156 Hrs out and appears like it has some good potential. Then I'll keep my eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The only good news is the NAM is normally very amped and warm at the end of its runs with any sort of deep low coming up the coast or the OH Valley, this run is surprisingly cold and less amped than you'd normally expect considering where the Euro/GFS are...normally the NAM would be in Chicago given those models.....yeah I am reaching a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The only good news is the NAM is normally very amped and warm at the end of its runs with any sort of deep low coming up the coast or the OH Valley, this run is surprisingly cold and less amped than you'd normally expect considering where the Euro/GFS are...normally the NAM would be in Chicago given those models.....yeah I am reaching a bit.. You r right. The energy hasn't closed off by the end of the run, confluence is strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The only good news is the NAM is normally very amped and warm at the end of its runs with any sort of deep low coming up the coast or the OH Valley, this run is surprisingly cold and less amped than you'd normally expect considering where the Euro/GFS are...normally the NAM would be in Chicago given those models.....yeah I am reaching a bit.. NAM loves to play catch up. Esp when it's more than 48-60 hrs out. It already jumped NW from it's 12z run for the same time frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Not that I have any confidence whatsoever but it's nice to see this change yet again even if it's by a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 The only good news is the NAM is normally very amped and warm at the end of its runs with any sort of deep low coming up the coast or the OH Valley, this run is surprisingly cold and less amped than you'd normally expect considering where the Euro/GFS are...normally the NAM would be in Chicago given those models.....yeah I am reaching a bit.. Would likely be a front end dump at the very least. Grasping as straws here but this is a slightly good sign. However if the gfs and euro hold serve my towel will be thrown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The one thing I do know is that if the GFS, Euro or both come east my twitter will be unreadable the rest of the night with JB's 8 tweets per 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well at least someone further west will benefit, good news for them, congrats Ohio, Western PA, Western NY state. As far as a new year's storm goes, I'm just gonna ignore it unless there's a real threat inside 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well at least someone further west will benefit, good news for them, congrats Ohio, Western PA, Western NY state. As far as a new year's storm goes, I'm just gonna ignore it unless there's a real threat inside 72 hrs. I have forecast interests for Detroit and don't really want the hassle. If we aren't getting snow my preference would be something just far enough east so they miss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I have forecast interests for Detroit and don't really want the hassle. If we aren't getting snow my preference would be something just far enough east so they miss it And at the moment Detroit looks to be the bullseye. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Mid Atlantic snowstorm next weekend on 18z gfs...lol The 12/29 and 1/3 shortwaves, both shown on the 18z GFS, are really the ones to watch. We get a very cold airmass with 850s near -15C, and as the PNA rises the chance for a lakes cutter decreases and we begin to see the classic coastal track taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This one is cook guys. This run of gfs might give Detroit problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Time to close the book on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I can't believe how this storm evolved. What a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I can't believe how this storm evolved. What a disaster. We need to give it another couple more days. If no good model runs by tomorrow night, it probably won't be good. Not sure why the transfer isn't happening earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This an apps track more or less, not very common. If anything it goes more west. There is no coast transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 We need to give it another couple more days. If no good model runs by tomorrow night, it probably won't be good. Not sure why the transfer isn't happening earlier. Because there's a lack of a block and a lack of confluence. The low doesnt hit a brick wall to its north to cause it to transfer like it did in earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 We need to give it another couple more days. If no good model runs by tomorrow night, it probably won't be good. Not sure why the transfer isn't happening earlier. There is no more transfer. The confluence is gone. It's over for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Time to close the book on this one. I think there is still chance for a front-end dump for a lot of us on the board. An all-snow solution doesn't look likely, but it never was. Definitely disappointing though to see XMAS turn into just light flurries/drizzle, and then this turn into a lakes cutter...just when we thought we were done with lakes cutters. The only good news is it could set the stage for the big 12/29 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This is a very fooked up looking solution. Total apps runner. It shood close off but it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I think there is still chance for a front-end dump for a lot of us on the board. An all-snow solution doesn't look likely, but it never was. Definitely disappointing though to see XMAS turn into just light flurries/drizzle, and then this turn into a lakes cutter...just when we thought we were done with lakes cutters. The only good news is it could set the stage for the big 12/29 threat. It's not a lakes cutter, this is a super rare apps runner. I think it will be more west when all is said and done, but this isn't gong to verify as the GFS has it. Gonna be rainy in the i95 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's not a lakes cutter, this is a super rare apps runner. I think it will be more west when all is said and done, but this isn't gong to verify as the GFS has it. Gonna be rainy in the i95 area. It's west of the apps, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's not a lakes cutter, this is a super rare apps runner. I think it will be more west when all is said and done, but this isn't gong to verify as the GFS has it. Gonna be rainy in the i95 area. The Canadian and even the NAM tonight were showing redevelopment, so I think there is chance this evolves differently than the GFS. For snow at least at the beginning and end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 A bit surprised by the lack of any CAD signature given there's a decent high in SE Canada although since it's one main storm and not a secondary type deal, it makes sense. I haven't seen this type of track recently, it's sort of an Apps runner, probably just to the west of them. Usually it's much further west or a coastal/OTS solution. I was hoping the models would trend OTS with this one because that gives us a better shot than what the models unfold on us now. Once it's inland like shown, it almost never shift too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's west of the apps, dude. GFS has it just north of BGM at 108 hours, 992mb, that's an Apps Runner really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The system crashing into the west coast is helping to pull the tof axis back in the east . As that system enters the west coast the response downstream is to buckle the jet before the trof can swing to the east coast . If you want a different east coast solution the west coast would have to help and its not .You can track the 29 th system all you want the models just lost 2 storms inside a day , one would have to be a fool to look beyond 5 days in this pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 A bit surprised by the lack of any CAD signature given there's a decent high in SE Canada although since it's one main storm and not a secondary type deal, it makes sense. Given the GFS verbatim, I would anticipate some significant icing concerns inland w/ that strong of a sfc high in SE Canada. You've got NELY ageostropic flow with the low coming up to the SW, that would be a classic interior Northeast ice event. Snow wise it's no good due to the torching in the mid levels, but we almost always see modelling underestimate sfc temps when there's a decent high in place nearby. I'm waiting through tomorrow to write this one off for everyone. The short wave is still out in the relatively poorly sampled Pacific compared to when it gets on the West Coast about 24 hours from now. This morning's 06z GFS basically suggested an all out snowstorm just inland from NYC, so the changes in just a couple runs are fairly drastic, Additionally, given the way the Christmas wave has been handled in the shorter range, going from a potential 3-6" hit on the GFS to nothing, I think we'll be seeing some more changes here. Whether or not they're positive for us, jury's out on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This was after the 18z runs yesterday... Classic snowstorm on the GFS/DGEX... Hopefully this time it actually verifies and not one of those medium range snowstorms that end up as rain or a mix. Yet again it's shaping up to be just that. There's still a few days left and at the very least I would expect some additional changes with the GFS given its lack of consistency with a single solution today, but I don't like the overall trends for this, especially with the GFS/GEFS, also considering changes with the PV and the blocking in Canada. By this point the most I'm hoping for with this is maybe a little front end snow/mix, otherwise I'm moving on to the 12/30 potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 There is an epic fish storm a 174. Right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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