MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z GGEM , nogaps, Ukie, JMA vs GFS and euro. Fun battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z ECM ENS are 50-100 miles east of the OP but still present p-type problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z GGEM , nogaps, Ukie, JMA vs GFS and euro. Fun battle. more like gfs/ euro are the americans and russians on the outskirts of berlin in the closing days of world war II , those other guys going to be slaughtered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ensemble mean is rather ugly for the first 3/4 of the storm. Some back end snow is possible but it has the majority of the storm as rain, possibly beginning as snow. It is interesting how it is the GFS and the Euro against the JMA (which is gorgeous), the UKMET, the NOGAPS, and the Canadian. What the heck? Unfortunately, you almost have to go with the Euro, GFS combo, but it is quite a shift from their previous runs, so possibly they just had a bad run? Here are the verification scores at 5 days. Note that the Euro is number 1, the UKMET is 2, the GFS is 3, JMA is 4, Canadian 5, and NOGAPS 6. So it is 1 and 3 against 2,4,5,6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Speaking of, can anyone tell me what the difference is between the op and ensemble members? Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Pretty amazing that we still have this large of a discrepency with the forecast guidance. Check out the 12z GGEM Ensembles. 12z GGEM ENS at hour 108: Hour 120: Looks like a Benchmark track on this ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z ECM ENS are 50-100 miles east of the OP but still present p-type problems. It's over JFK, still would be horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's over JFK, still would be horrible Another 50-100 mile shift east would put us back in the game, however, especially for northern suburbs. Still think this could be a wintry event here with the blocking. We need the XMAS storm to gain some steam though to knock down heights on the East Coast. The last thing we need is another cutter with the low spirits around here lately. Been a tough stretch since November for winter lovers. Luckily I can chase this one as it's vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Another 50-100 mile shift east would put us back in the game, however, especially for northern suburbs. Still think this could be a wintry event here with the blocking. We need the XMAS storm to gain some steam though to knock down heights on the East Coast. The last thing we need is another cutter with the low spirits around here lately. Been a tough stretch since November for winter lovers. Luckily I can chase this one as it's vacation. Good for you Nate. Hopefully we can get some front end here, just to see some snow. Looks like 18z gfs will transfer earlier. Might save northern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Little Rock, Arkansas ftw on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow this run is even further west. Gives Chicago a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow this run is even further west. Gives Chicago a storm This is incredible. It's going back to what the models were showing back when this was a 192+ storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 For some reason I'm feeling really good about the Thursday system....I DON'T think there's any chance this will go that far west. I'm expecting a 6"+ snowstorm from this for PHL north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Back to where it was a few days ago haha. I was thinking if I lived in Chicago I would have been pissed how east it went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 euro is one ugly model this winter it is never consistent and seems to follow the gfs....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Back to where it was a few days ago haha. I was thinking if I lived in Chicago I would have been pissed how east it went. Congrats chicagostorm and hooiser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 50's and rain for the whole area per 18z GFS. NAM shows similar pattern up to 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow. The GFS is officially losing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What a disaster. This storm went from a glc to an east coast storm back to a glc on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I can't believe the 18z GFS just ran up the spine of the Apps, like it was showing 5 days ago. It's incredible how it just came full circle. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This is turning ugly compared to yesterday... I was thinking there would be at least some hope west of I-95 yesterday with a secondary low near NYC. While changing solutions because of one run isn't the way to go given how models change, with the latest runs I'm wondering if even a NYC track might be too far east, GFS doesn't have a separate secondary low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well, we'll have to see what January has in store. 18z atrocious for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18z Nogaps is still OTS. Brushes the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What a disaster. This storm went from a glc to an east coast storm back to a glc on the gfs. It's the pattern, which doesn't argue for a favorable storm track for us. A bad PNA and Pacific pattern along with transient blocking up north argue for a big Midwest storm that maybe transfers energy in time for well-upstate NY and NNE. The only way this gets salvaged is a huge, locked-in block to force a transfer well south of us and a track east of us. The atmosphere seems to be holding onto the Nina pattern, and until we can get the Pacific to cooperate, it will be almost impossible for us to get a solid winter event without a crushing Atlantic block. Maybe after the New Year, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18z Nogaps is still OTS. Brushes the coast. Hmmmm...makes me think that the GFS has some explaining to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Anyone thinking what I'm thinking? Maybe the fact that this may actually happen as it was progged at 192 hours out, maybe the New Year's storm that's now being modeled as a cutter will actually end up on the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's the pattern, which doesn't argue for a favorable storm track for us. A bad PNA and Pacific pattern along with transient blocking up north argue for a big Midwest storm that maybe transfers energy in time for well-upstate NY and NNE. The only way this gets salvaged is a huge, locked-in block to force a transfer well south of us and a track east of us. The atmosphere seems to be holding onto the Nina pattern, and until we can get the Pacific to cooperate, it will be almost impossible for us to get a solid winter event without a crushing Atlantic block. Maybe after the New Year, hopefully. Yeah, just goes to show how a lousy Pacific pattern can trump a -NAO/-AO for us. It looks like we reverted back to a -PDO type pattern in December after the El Nino faded early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 IF this does come to fruition....it proves that the pattern and modeling TRENDS with that pattern are much more reliable than what a model SHOWS....and how for the most part the modeling even beyond just 48 hours can be used best to give an idea as to what type of storm and approximate timing/direction it is headed.....not specifically what states and counties get snow or rain, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hmmmm...makes me think that the GFS has some explaining to do. Or maybe the GGEM is the one that has explaining to do? Euro/GFS/NAM is pretty hard to argue against. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's the pattern, which doesn't argue for a favorable storm track for us. A bad PNA and Pacific pattern along with transient blocking up north argue for a big Midwest storm that maybe transfers energy in time for well-upstate NY and NNE. The only way this gets salvaged is a huge, locked-in block to force a transfer well south of us and a track east of us. The atmosphere seems to be holding onto the Nina pattern, and until we can get the Pacific to cooperate, it will be almost impossible for us to get a solid winter event without a crushing Atlantic block. Maybe after the New Year, hopefully. The blocking isn't 100% ideal, but it was still pretty good. If we had a better PAC pattern, then this blocking would have sufficed. There was an area of confluence between the shortwave and the block, but the Pacific pattern was just too awful in that although our airmass has improved, it's still not great, and the SE ridge proved too strong via the ridging being too far west and our storm amplifying way too early. Previous runs maintained a much stronger WNW and NW flow at 500mb for our area, forcing redevelopment much further SE. But a lot of that wasn't necessarily synoptic confluence, it was small scale vorts and such that were unlikely to survive several model cycles. Of course, a truly great block could have been enough to overcome this, but I'm definitely more "annoyed" at the PAC than I am at the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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