Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z UKMET Can't tell if it's a full-blown Miller B or not. Definitely nice to see a 987mb low over the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ukie shows a 987 low on the benchmark . Hence my YAWN at the 12z GFS ( which took its ugliest ensemble member and decided to advertise it as its midday operational solution ). I think the Global models will continue to go with a secondary off the VA coast and come Northeast . Doest not mean a full blown snowstorm just that I 95 should be the battle lines. The Euro will probably show something along these lines and than the GFS will correct over the next day . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just better hope the ECMWF doesn't come west. Not exactly a pretty scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 12Z GFS ensembles also coming west leads me to believe the UKIE/Canadian are east because they are so strong on the Christmas wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Meh. Backside snows seems to never work out It did in Christmas 1969 storm and "Snowicane" of February 25-26, 2010. Otherwise that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 12Z GFS ensembles also coming west leads me to believe the UKIE/Canadian are east because they are so strong on the Christmas wave. Agree. These 2 european models want to decrease the upper level heights more than the gfs behind that wave because the x-mas wave is stronger on those models. This would allow a baroclinic zone to set up more to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Steve D, JB and DT all just posted and said this run doest make any sense at all lol. you must be a 3 stooges fan - anyways I think your post belonged in the banter thread snowman ! Ok so I don't just post banter looking at that rising NAO chart that is the reason the storm cuts - block is weakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Steve D, JB and DT all just posted and said this run doest make any sense at all lol. The models are much better than any of these guys at midrange synoptic forecasting. The first two guys I personally don't believe are even worth reading. If the GFS shows it, then it could probably happen. But it's still a good idea to lean towards the other midrange guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ouch...not fun to wake up to the 12z GFS. Oh well, at least I can take small comfort in knowing that the GGEM and UKMET are still to the east. We NEED the Euro to hold the confluence and not follow suit with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 gfs vs ggem, nogaps , ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It did in Christmas 1969 storm and "Snowicane" of February 25-26, 2010. Otherwise that's it. December 19, 1995 and March 3, 2001 were sort of quasi-backlash like out here.. <Waits for SnowGoose to weigh in> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 12Z GFS ensembles also coming west leads me to believe the UKIE/Canadian are east because they are so strong on the Christmas wave. Its only west because the GFS flattens the confluence after the xmas storm . None of the other globals do that . think thats why you see this so far west . The GFS loves to rush warm air thru the mid section and ohio valley , its as typical as running energy off the playing field too fast, it mayb doin in this suite . Hang tight , I think you re introduce the confluence and its coming east . Lets see if Euro agrees . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 December 19, 1995 and March 3, 2001 were sort of quasi-backlash like out here.. <Waits for SnowGoose to weigh in> The 3/28-29/1996 storm was mostly backlash...the one earlier in the month was also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro not lookin good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro not lookin good... It's real amp up... Going to look like gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's real amp up... Going to look like gfs Yep , first system being weaker flattens the confluence after it , so this has little resistance . heights way different than the 0z run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ugly ugly run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The Euro has the same basic evolution as the 12z GFS, but it's a little further south and slightly less wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The answer is we are goin to need a more wrapped up 1st solution to create the confluence so the second system can transfer faster . So pick 1 - do u want a white xmas - ( colder , less amped up solution ala Euro ) or a wetter warmer one on your xmas day which prob helps this system . probably cant have both . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What an ugly run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 LOL, this entire run is just littered with cutters everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What an ugly run Do we start off as snow on the 12z ECM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 October and November are our snow months, haha. My friends in Michigan might like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 With quasi-blocking north of us and a sub par Pacific, ugly is likely what we're stuck with. This is a good pattern for the Midwest and NNE/upstate NY, that's about it. Until that changes, we might luck out with a minor event or two but nothing major. Looks like we're in a hangover from the crap Nina pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Do we start off as snow on the 12z ECM? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Will some of you pls calm down . Its one run , this pattern is different than where we just where . Let it evolve The models are just responding to the changes in the atmosphere , it takes time . This upcoming 20 day period should not look like the last 20 day period . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Will some of you pls calm down . Its one run , this pattern is different than where we just where . Let it evolve The models are just responding to the changes in the atmosphere , it takes time . This upcoming 20 day period should not look like the last 20 day period . Its probably a continued painfully slow step down from where we were....I was semi-skeptical of this storm being the one but thought for sure the one after would be...turns out we may need to wait even beyond that for the +PNA to really kick in and give us a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Its probably a continued painfully slow step down from where we were....I was semi-skeptical of this storm being the one but thought for sure the one after would be...turns out we may need to wait even beyond that for the +PNA to really kick in and give us a chance. Yeh I hear ya , but sometime pos PNA wind up cold and dry , How many times do we see storms come out of the northern branch and slip underneath us . I dont mind neg PNA neg NAO , big risk but big rewards pattern .If you set the confluence right , its just one right after another . cold and dry is boring . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 JMA looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z EC show a solid snowstorm from hr105-hr114 here in the HV (Specifically the west side of the Hudson)... Wunderground weenie snow maps show a good amount of snow for that time period as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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