CooL Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I think this period warrants it's own thread.. The setup on the models right now looks very favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 HPC UPSTREAM...AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY DIGS FROM THE WESTCOAST CHRISTMAS EVE TO THE S-CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND PCPN UNDERNEATH AND OVER SWD SURGED PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM REALLY IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN MID-LATE WEEK OVER THE E-CENTRAL THE ERN US INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH AN EXPANDING HEAVIER PCPN SHIELD. THERE IS AMPLE ROOM FOR COLD AIR TO SETTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW AND DAMMED DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Looks like a period of light snow xmass morning for ttn and phl on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Looks like a double barrel/dumbel like lows with redevelopment of a decent storm track over the northeast on day 8. Pattern looks good on GFS 12Z for end of week. The block signature is picked up, with a 1027 high to the north. Things that can go wrong: Anything less than 1027 and the spine runner or more west track is a problem. I would even think suppressed is on the table. But looking decent now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Ill take it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Ill take it.. me too...I love the lollypop in the adirondaks. new snowmobile coming for Junior on Tuesday. Rain to start in the city verbatim, but not an important detail yet. it has the right look on the GFS, i.e. nothing looks synoptically impossible or far fetched. but its too far out to get overly amped. Many model runs to either drool over or puke on. We await the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Classic setup on the 12z GFS. Where is everyone? Guess we gotta get the euro on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z ggem is decent http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=180&fixhh=1&hh=168 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Storms usually go east or west of the mountains especially in this case where we have a secondary redevelopment, I highly doubt it would hug the coast like the newest gfs suggests but another run another solution, at least the storm is on the table and that's all that matters. The Christmas dusting looks pretty legit as well, up to an inch of snow for some wouldn't surprise me for Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Classic setup on the 12z GFS. Where is everyone? Guess we gotta get the euro on board The key on Euro will b where the xmas system corsses - The GFS keeps it south , drapes the trof to the coast - where Euro this AM keep the system just to the west pf us - if xmas system comes sout on Euro - then this prob gets progged further east on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z ggem is decent http://meteocentre.c...&fixhh=1&hh=168 http://meteocentre.c...&fixhh=1&hh=180 GGEM & GFS have identical low placement @ 168. 988mb (GFS) vs. 993mb (GGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12156.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12168.gif Looks really nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Classic setup on the 12z GFS. Where is everyone? Guess we gotta get the euro on board Because the models show very little snow south and east of NYC most people on here aren't following it too closely. West Milford could get 30" and NYC could get all rain and most people in this sub forum would consider it a non-event. That's just how they are. We need more support from those of use that live on the western side of this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Storms usually go east or west of the mountains especially in this case where we have a secondary redevelopment, I highly doubt it would hug the coast like the newest gfs suggests but another run another solution, at least the storm is on the table and that's all that matters. The Christmas dusting looks pretty legit as well, up to an inch of snow for some wouldn't surprise me for Christmas morning. the 28th system looks like it could be too west with the position of the low. And the surface vs. the upper atmosphere looks out of whack, but that could be the signal of 2 lows coalescing. But those are mere details. Still looks like a classic set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z GEFS http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12156.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12168.gif Looks really nice The question is, are most of the members centered around that mean or is there still a lot of spread. Ensemble means don't matter much if the individual members are still well spread out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z GGEM for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 By hr 174 on the 12z GFS it's snowing heavily from NYC on North and West and by hr 177 the 0c 850 line is east of Long Island and the low pulls away. Would be a nice back end dump for everyone and mostly snow event for those in the NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Because the models show very little snow south and east of NYC most people on here aren't following it too closely. West Milford could get 30" and NYC could get all rain and most people in this sub forum would consider it a non-event. That's just how they are. We need more support from those of use that live on the western side of this sub-forum. 99% of us who live NW of the Tappan Zee post in the Hudson Valley sub forum. Even though we live in Uptons CWA we still feel like outsiders here in this sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 99% of us who live NW of the Tappan Zee post in the Hudson Valley sub forum. Even though we live in Uptons CWA we still feel like outsiders here in this sub forum. Yeah and that shouldn't be the case. I actually live in the Mt. Holly CWA but I can be in NYC in 25 minutes so does that mean I should post in the Philly forum? Anyway lets not derail this thread, the storm signal remains and nothing is off the table right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 What a solution on the Canadian...a few inches on Christmas followed by a MECS a few days later. Perfect tracks on both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah and that shouldn't be the case. I actually live in the Mt. Holly CWA but I can be in NYC in 25 minutes so does that mean I should post in the Philly forum? Anyway lets not derail this thread, the storm signal remains and nothing is off the table right now. I live within 15 mins of 3 other CWAs (Mt Holly, BGM, ALB) so I guess I'm free to wonder throughout lol.. So far the GFS/GGEM are pretty much lined up at the surface @ 168. Now how they get to that point is a different story. Plenty of time left and I'm sure things will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The two main features I'd watch for on the guidance over the next few days would be the cold air/vortex/50/50 underneath the block, and the Christmas day shortwave/vorticity. The GFS and models that show the colder solutions have lower heights trapped to the south/southeast of the Central Canada block. This is very important as it keeps a confluent flow to the north of the storm system with a half decent cold air supply. The shortwave a few days earlier is also essential to the set up, as it helps drag the baroclinic zone south a bit. It's no surprise that the Canadian, which is strongest with that shortwave and drags the baroclinic zone south, has the storm redeveloping to our south as well a few days later. But the block to the north is a different story...the models are really starting to go balls to the wall with it and it's going to change the complexion of not only this setup but the pattern beyond it. We can hope that the GFS has the correct idea (not a layup, either, it's had some bad busts the last few weeks) with the idea of the cold air/near 50/50 low forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro once again doesn't get the baroclinic zone far enough south with the Christmas event...it's farther east and much better looking with the main vort but it's still got room to come north because there is no cold air underneath the block over Central Canada either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hr 138 gulf low in se states Hr 144 near atlanta 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hr 138 gulf low in se states Hr 144 near atlanta 12z euro Yup, and if you look at the mid level height field, it has no real reason to transfer off the coast. It will eventually kick east and reform maybe over Philly...but without the confluent flow to the north like the GGEM and GFS show...it's never going offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z euro is a big time rainstorm. Really amp up. Ohio valley getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 After that run , not gona like what follows downstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yup, and if you look at the mid level height field, it has no real reason to transfer off the coast. It will eventually kick east and reform maybe over Philly...but without the confluent flow to the north like the GGEM and GFS show...it's never going offshore. Good thing its 150 hrs out. Hopefully it changes for the better. Granted its the biggest snowstorm for Ohio valley since march 08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yup, and if you look at the mid level height field, it has no real reason to transfer off the coast. It will eventually kick east and reform maybe over Philly...but without the confluent flow to the north like the GGEM and GFS show...it's never going offshore. The xmas vort being so amped up to our west pumps heights into the block and we loose our 50/50 help..The euro has no support with that at the moment. Every model has that wave slipping under the confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 The Euro may be just too wound up with the 1st system That storm will decide the outcome of the next one. I have a feeling the euro is too strong with that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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