Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The event overnight into tomorrow morning is more multifaceted than mere wind - the high country of PA down to E. West Va. is currently snowing/mixing along the roof tops, indicating that initially the warm push aloft is not substantial enough in those regions to mix out the snow growth region, and there's no synoptic reason to assume otherwise for our neck of the woods. That is interesting because the precip is set to move into SW zones over the next 2 hours as a wall sort of gin up, and I am wondering if a burst of snow doesn't make things interesting from S to N through the area later tonight. May even be a period of sleet/ZR for the Mohawk Trail prior to dramatic wind shifts associated with all that jet coupling tomorrow morning. Currently area wet bulbs and thickness support snow with even some minor +PP in the area. For at least a couple of hours it wouldn't surprising to see the snow/sleet come on at a pretty good clip later on. Then the winds come through - southern zones and ORH Hill tops most susceptible, along with SE coastal plain, Cape and Islands. Particularly the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 High winds... going to be fun on the mountain tomorrow between 2,000-4,000ft exposed to the SE. LAMOILLE-WESTERN RUTLAND-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN- EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...RUTLAND... ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON... EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON 1206 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF RUTLAND...UNDERHILL...RIPTON...NASHVILLE...AND CAMBRIDGE. * HAZARDS...STRONG TO DAMAGING SOUTHEAST WINDS. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE WESTERN SLOPE AREAS. * TIMING...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PEAK BETWEEN 8 AM AND 4 PM ON FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EVENING. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES...PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND DOWNED TREES ARE LIKELY. SNOW COVERED TREES ABOVE 1500 FEET ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO BEING DOWNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Does BOX have a wind gust graphic out? Here's BTV's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The event overnight into tomorrow morning is more multifaceted than mere wind - the high country of PA down to E. West Va. is currently snowing/mixing along the roof tops, indicating that initially the warm push aloft is not substantial enough in those regions to mix out the snow growth region, and there's no synoptic reason to assume otherwise for our neck of the woods. That is interesting because the precip is set to move into SW zones over the next 2 hours as a wall sort of gin up, and I am wondering if a burst of snow doesn't make things interesting from S to N through the area later tonight. May even be a period of sleet/ZR for the Mohawk Trail prior to dramatic wind shifts associated with all that jet coupling tomorrow morning. Currently area wet bulbs and thickness support snow with even some minor +PP in the area. For at least a couple of hours it wouldn't surprising to see the snow/sleet come on at a pretty good clip later on. Then the winds come through - southern zones and ORH Hill tops most susceptible, along with SE coastal plain, Cape and Islands. Particularly the latter. Well--regardless of what comes on the front end, it'll be but a memory once the rains follow--and the forecasted gust of 45 approach. Curious as to how much of that is actually realized. We'll know in the next 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Going to be exciting on the mountain tomorrow with 45-60mph winds by morning, increasing to 80-95mph tomorrow. Chairlifts may have some issues with those speeds. Then on the backside of the storm we see the upslope snow start on Saturday and BTV currently going with 80-100% POPs for snow this weekend. THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT MANSFIELD, VERMONT AT 4,393 FT: LAST UPDATED AT 618 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 . TONIGHT...CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW AND SLEET UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW AROUND 27. SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH...INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SLEET OR RAIN IN THE MORNING... THEN RAIN OR SNOW OR SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WINDS 80 TO 95 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 9 ABOVE. .FRIDAY NIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW AROUND 18. SOUTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 4 ABOVE. .SATURDAY...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING... THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 21. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. What's the over/under on max wind gusts at MWN tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The event overnight into tomorrow morning is more multifaceted than mere wind - the high country of PA down to E. West Va. is currently snowing/mixing along the roof tops, indicating that initially the warm push aloft is not substantial enough in those regions to mix out the snow growth region, and there's no synoptic reason to assume otherwise for our neck of the woods. That is interesting because the precip is set to move into SW zones over the next 2 hours as a wall sort of gin up, and I am wondering if a burst of snow doesn't make things interesting from S to N through the area later tonight. Is the precip shield pretty much in line with the radar or is there some evaporation eating it up? Going to be exciting on the mountain tomorrow with 45-60mph winds by morning, increasing to 80-95mph tomorrow. Chairlifts may have some issues with those speeds. Then on the backside of the storm we see the upslope snow start on Saturday and BTV currently going with 80-100% POPs for snow this weekend. THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT MANSFIELD, VERMONT AT 4,393 FT: LAST UPDATED AT 618 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 . TONIGHT...CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW AND SLEET UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW AROUND 27. SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH...INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SLEET OR RAIN IN THE MORNING... THEN RAIN OR SNOW OR SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WINDS 80 TO 95 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 9 ABOVE. .FRIDAY NIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW AROUND 18. SOUTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 4 ABOVE. .SATURDAY...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING... THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 21. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. What's the over/under on max wind gusts at MWN tomorrow? Looks like a fun couple days, Scott--enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What's the over/under on max wind gusts at MWN tomorrow? I'll take the over for both tomorrow and Saturday night. Friday Snow before 11am, then sleet between 11am and 5pm, then snow and sleet after 5pm. High near 32. Wind chill values as low as -2. Strong and damaging winds, with a southeast wind 55 to 65 mph decreasing to 39 to 49 mph. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday Night Snow, mainly before 5am. Low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as -6. Windy, with a south wind 21 to 26 mph becoming west 31 to 36 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Saturday Night A 50 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around -1. Strong and damaging winds, with a northwest wind 41 to 51 mph increasing to 65 to 75 mph. Winds could gust as high as 110 mph. Sunday Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 6. Strong and damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's 36F here and overcast. Taunton is calling for it to start as snow here, but it seems a bit warm for accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 seems like some snow is being reported in altoona and williamsport as modeled but 850 temps on SPC meso scale analysis page are above 0c 850 , and in some cases near 2 c 850 over those reporting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 looks like alot of precip may get into W NWE by midnite ...esp W ma /S vt they could have a nice snow thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 i think logan could get a nice 2-4 inch thump of snow esp. between say 10pm and 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 i think logan could get a nice 2-4 inch thump of snow esp. between say 10pm and 3am Nice--Rick's away for three weeks of non-winter and returns for a front-end burst. looks like alot of precip may get into W NWE by midnite ...esp W ma /S vt they could have a nice snow thump ????? Looks like me posting about beets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 W NWE i guess it should say W NE nice WV loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 i think logan could get a nice 2-4 inch thump of snow esp. between say 10pm and 3am Will there be any snow for Northern Connecticut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Will there be any snow for Northern Connecticut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 i would think near 1k in the western half of state has best chance but also NE hills (800') as well. WV loop just has the "look" of a surprise front end to me IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 My inflatable Santa decoration will be blown to Wachusett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Per Accuweather forum chat it's snowing in Northern P.A above 1,000'. Makes sense it would do the same as the precipitation moves into Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Per Accuweather forum chat it's snowing in Northern P.A above 1,000'. Makes sense it would do the same as the precipitation moves into Connecticut. temps are gonna be very close for N CT . I like rick's spot in NY. if he had a tad more elevation like areas around him it may add up fast. It is worth keeping an eye on in NCT esp if a heavy heavy batch moves thru between like midnite and 5 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Scattered snow showers on Saturday...pretty much how it has looked most of the way (or the entire way on the Euro) Euro was good thru and thru. I suspect it'll do pretty well with these next couple too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 this storm is huge. look at national radar. ULL over ILL with front extending to intense squall line into florida . snows wrapping around NW and N side of ULL and some front end precip thump running thru nc/Va/C-E pa/ NY/ NJ. i would like someone else to look at this and tell me why a wall of snow doesn't hit W MA and S VT tonite AOA 1k by 11pm or so? I mean even W and N CT is in the game IMO. with this heavy precip someone @ 36/32 could dynamically cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 this storm is huge. look at national radar. ULL over ILL with front extending to intense squall line into florida . snows wrapping around NW and N side of ULL and some front end precip thump running thru nc/Va/C-E pa/ NY/ NJ. i would like someone else to look at this and tell me why a wall of snow doesn't hit W MA and S VT tonite AOA 1k by 11pm or so? I mean even W and N CT is in the game IMO. with this heavy precip someone @ 36/32 could dynamically cool As I said before some of the Accuweather gang in Northern P.A had front end snow, but now it's going back to rain. Rain/sleet/snow mix also reported just south of Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 ya radar shows W ma and S vt may get more brunt of precip for a while. NJ is pretty much dry so that doesn't translate great for qpf in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 this storm is huge. look at national radar. ULL over ILL with front extending to intense squall line into florida . snows wrapping around NW and N side of ULL and some front end precip thump running thru nc/Va/C-E pa/ NY/ NJ. i would like someone else to look at this and tell me why a wall of snow doesn't hit W MA and S VT tonite AOA 1k by 11pm or so? I mean even W and N CT is in the game IMO. with this heavy precip someone @ 36/32 could dynamically cool If that happens, I hope it's an hour or so earlier--I'll sleep through it otherwise and just watch it all wash away tomorrow. I suspect I'll cover the ground, but that's about it. Playing it conservatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 This may not be the most accurate product ( I don't know ) but I don't see why the same thing that you see in PA won't take place in the interior of SNE - flip to wet snow prior to deeper waa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Snowing in Williamsport at 625'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 well it is at elevation most AOA 1k out there where it's snowing. so i think W MA and ORH county AOA 800' or so could cash in on a surprise. not sure further east..perhaps if qpf can stream east before secondary in SW va rides NNE and torches us by am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What a great storm, covered a massive area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 i did see that report coventry on wunderground i think even down to 540 or so (by the river it is snowing) but prob not accumulating. when that secondary starts hauling NNE like it should do arond midnite the precip should allign more S to N i would think so not sure how much of the heavy qpf in PA makes it's way into E SNE u can see what i mean looking at the precip on mt holly radar as the area from dover to philly just doesn't see much qpf while it trains over just to the west of that line. upton radar shows precip arcing eastward over to W CT and moving more ENE so we shall see. Albany radar also shows quite a heavy band into NW half of w ct now. I think MPM will be snowing by 1030 latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 ocean effect light precip over areas just N of bos right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.