Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm not seeing how we mix much down in the interior. I'd be surprised if we even got widespread wind advisory criteria away from the coast (>45mph gusts) Exposed coastal locations definitely may rip for a bit. Esp out on the Cape. Cuz we warm sector south of pike as low cuts westSteve that was off Gfs I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 These winter s flow events usually underwhelm Exactly. Meh remains. We did have one last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Good analog (based on 850mb wind correlation and SLP track) is 12/17/2000. Here are the wind gusts in MPH: GON 56 IJD 51 OXC 48 BDL 47 HFD 46 BDR 45 MMK 44 HVN 40 (data incomplete) DXR 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This screams high winds translating to surface. Not a time to downplay this one folks @gilsimmons: @danburyweather @TollandKev 103 mph 850mb KCEF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Days and days of outages Winter in Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This should be effective at melting snow quickly at elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well, at least I can still see patches of remaining snow outside my office for the remainder of day. I don't think the progged 37* will get rid of it. Tonight's rain on the other hand.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 So a nice windy rain on the north shore? Well, it's better than boring old sun and partly cloudy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 gfs looks a little more bullish on winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 With the world ending tomorrow at 6:11am, I am not concerned about a little wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 With the world ending tomorrow at 6:11am, I am not concerned about a little wind Ahh yes you're right, for a more accurate projection of windspeed we need to multiply the forecasted speeds by 12,212,012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 With the world ending tomorrow at 6:11am, I am not concerned about a little wind EST or GMT? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Can't wait for the 38mph superstorm gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Please shoot me. On a unrelated note, is this gonna dump on the loaf much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 EST or GMT? lol EST as the Mayan calendar ends at 6:11am and the solstice occurs at 6:12am. On a serious side note, I wonder how many freaked out people around the world will commit suicide in advance of tomorrow's world ending, sad really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Please shoot me. On a unrelated note, is this gonna dump on the loaf much? A safe bet is 3"- 6", followed by rain, followed by backside snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Modeling advertising a wild 3-6 hour period tomorrow morning centered on the AM rush with pounding rains, scattered thunder and strong, damaging winds. 50-60 mph gusts seem likely for all of SNE so expect the HWW to be flying with the afternoon AFD. i'll take a look but my first impression borrowing from the last couple days of modeling is no where near that affect. there is some boundary layer resistance all the way down into the MA due to CAA on the backside of yesterday. this system is moving so fast that it encounters that resistance before the air mass has moderated. you can see what that does to this baroclinic axis; a wave develops S of the area, perhaps a long a triple point. the best wind field in that sort of scenario has trouble getting down through the inversion that is resulted (warm over cold) - i.e., not a well mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Actually ... there's a helluva llv jet core passing over; despite what i just posted, which is still true, if that jet is that overwhelming it may overcome some of those limitations. also, this could be local-studies scenario. the oceanic temps are higher than the DP, meaning that the Cape and Islands will be quite susceptible to this. Not a bad thread, Kevin - this will definitely be worthy of analysis during the day/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Here are the NAM 925mb winds between 24 and 30 hours off the 12z run; you can see a 60 to 65kt SSE inflow pummeling the S coast, Cape and Islands. Inland els would have to be susceptible should a ribbon echo squall line evolve. Otherwise, the fairly rapid descent in height as we go from the S coast to S. NH here suggests that cooler BL could inhibit for interior zones: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I should be clear ... I mean that as, "should it mix successfully" for southern/eastern zones. 925mb is getting kind low in the atmosphere for protecting the surface from damaging gust, particularly when the ocean is warmer than the air in this case and could suffice to mix out inversion and bring some of that action down in to the boundary layer. I see that KTAN went with High Wind Watch for the Cape and Islands/adjacent SE zones - good call there from what I am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Here's a closer look at the NAM forecast winds. Pretty impressive for southeastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This could be pretty legit on the coast and Cape. ESE wind setups usually have a bit less of an inversion which is evident on the soundings. The true srly gale setups are classic inversion stink jobs. Pretty good fine like of +RA modeled to swing through along with good negatively tilted trough. I could see 60+ in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This could be pretty legit on the coast and Cape. ESE wind setups usually have a bit less of an inversion which is evident on the soundings. The true srly gale setups are classic inversion stink jobs. Pretty good fine like of +RA modeled to swing through along with good negatively tilted trough. I could see 60+ in some areas. oh yay, Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 With 925mb winds that high, I definitely think 60 MPH gusts are possible, especially the Cape and Islands. The 12/17/2000 analog that I tossed out had wind gusts to 61 at PVC and 63 at ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 With 925mb winds that high, I definitely think 60 MPH gusts are possible, especially the Cape and Islands. The 12/17/2000 analog that I tossed out had wind gusts to 61 at PVC and 63 at ACK. There was an event right before Christmas, I think maybe in '99 or it could have been that '00 deal where we lost power for a day at my house. It was purely convective from the line of +RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Please shoot me. On a unrelated note, is this gonna dump on the loaf much? A safe bet is 3"- 6", followed by rain, followed by backside snow. I agree, Front end snow then the flip to rain and back to snow on the backend, The NW county should be similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 50+ looks like it at least makes it to Pike. Could see cars blown off rds tomorrow morning rush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 There was an event right before Christmas, I think maybe in '99 or it could have been that '00 deal where we lost power for a day at my house. It was purely convective from the line of +RA. 12/16/1999 was another analog, but that system wasn't as amped up. Wind gusts 20-30 generally for eastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 50+ looks like it at least makes it to Pike. Could see cars blown off rds tomorrow morning rush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 There was an event right before Christmas, I think maybe in '99 or it could have been that '00 deal where we lost power for a day at my house. It was purely convective from the line of +RA. Yeah that's that "ribbon echo" squall phenomenon - it's pretty common in winter at this latitude when you have an elevated warm layer and strong jet running over top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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