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NNE Winter Thread II


dryslot

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Lol   Plymouth airport finally makes it above freezing  (33F) at 3pm.   I believe they were below zero last night while I was in the mid teens just 5 miles south and at 1100 feet.   First above 40F day in along time.  Let the melting begin....

 

Also  I was just reading about the record breaking warmth in the US this past year.   What really stuck out was that the last record cold month for the country was Dec 1983,  29 years ago!!    When I bought my house up here in Bridgewater in 1989 it seemed that I had many, many nights below zero.  Now they seem to come less and less!   

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I thought about taking a pic of that sunrise but the two above top whatever I could have done.

 

Oh is really 60 in Springfield VT?.  Judging by all the local readings on WeatherUnderground are in the 35-45 range, I think someone has a faulty sensor.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?table=1&banner=off&sid=KVSF

 

I saw that too and chuckled.  Must be faulty equipment.  I don't think even the tropics of SNE had anything approaching 60...  ;)

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Lol   Plymouth airport finally makes it above freezing  (33F) at 3pm.   I believe they were below zero last night while I was in the mid teens just 5 miles south and at 1100 feet.   First above 40F day in along time.  Let the melting begin....

 

Also  I was just reading about the record breaking warmth in the US this past year.   What really stuck out was that the last record cold month for the country was Dec 1983,  29 years ago!!    When I bought my house up here in Bridgewater in 1989 it seemed that I had many, many nights below zero.  Now they seem to come less and less!   

 

I think the years of record used for ranking 48-state temps is about 117, so coldest months would average about 10 yr apart - means the warming climate has prevented perhaps 2 new "coldests" since 12/83.  Though 1985 is scarcely closer than 12/83, I'm a bit surprised that January of '85 didn't set the record, as there was a massive and frigid HP covering most of the 48 for several weeks that month.  In N.Maine where I then lived, we were on the fringes of the arctic blob and thus set no low temp records, bottoming out at -23.  However, we never sniffed a thaw, either.  My highest temp that month was 22 and only one other day reached 20.  The monthly range of 45F was exceedingly low for any non-summer month, and was often exceeded on single days in March/April.

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When we talk about flipping temps, late January in 94 stands out to me.  

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBTV/1994/1/27/DailyHistory.html

 

Burlington had this stretch

Date           High              Low

1/26              0                  -25

1/27             14                 -29

1/28             46                  14

1/29             43                  10

1/30              9                    -6

1/31              9                    -11

 

 

I remember the forecast being for rain and 40's in a day and thinking how can that be as my thermometer was sitting at -27 at the time.

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Lol   Plymouth airport finally makes it above freezing  (33F) at 3pm.   I believe they were below zero last night while I was in the mid teens just 5 miles south and at 1100 feet.   First above 40F day in along time.  Let the melting begin....

 

Also  I was just reading about the record breaking warmth in the US this past year.   What really stuck out was that the last record cold month for the country was Dec 1983,  29 years ago!!    When I bought my house up here in Bridgewater in 1989 it seemed that I had many, many nights below zero.  Now they seem to come less and less!   

 

 

I think the years of record used for ranking 48-state temps is about 117, so coldest months would average about 10 yr apart - means the warming climate has prevented perhaps 2 new "coldests" since 12/83.  Though 1985 is scarcely closer than 12/83, I'm a bit surprised that January of '85 didn't set the record, as there was a massive and frigid HP covering most of the 48 for several weeks that month.  In N.Maine where I then lived, we were on the fringes of the arctic blob and thus set no low temp records, bottoming out at -23.  However, we never sniffed a thaw, either.  My highest temp that month was 22 and only one other day reached 20.  The monthly range of 45F was exceedingly low for any non-summer month, and was often exceeded on single days in March/April.

 

The globe hasn't had a below normal month since 1985!

 

This was back in August:

 

"August 2012 marks the 36th consecutive August and 330th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average August temperature was August 1976 and the last below-average temperature for any month was February 1985 (NCDC)."

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It doesn’t sound like we’re expecting too much snow with the cold front on Wednesday, so with a potential break from snowfall for a few days I decided to check the water content in the snowpack.  There’s roughly a foot out there right now, and it came in with 2.30” of liquid.  Current snowfall for the month is 9.5”, which is right on about average for ~¼ of the way through the month.  Season snowfall is still running a couple inches ahead of average, but with the average increasing by an inch or two a day, it will probably fall behind a bit as we head through this week.

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When we talk about flipping temps, late January in 94 stands out to me.  

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBTV/1994/1/27/DailyHistory.html

 

Burlington had this stretch

Date           High              Low

1/26              0                  -25

1/27             14                 -29

1/28             46                  14

1/29             43                  10

1/30              9                    -6

1/31              9                    -11

 

 

I remember the forecast being for rain and 40's in a day and thinking how can that be as my thermometer was sitting at -27 at the time.

 

That's one impressive double flip, especially the rise.  75F from one day to the next ties the most I've ever observed, in Ft. Kent:

3/19/76   24   -25

3/20/76   50    19

And the 37.5F change in daily mean beats anything I've seen.  For double flips, early Jan 1978 up there saw temps rise from -28 to 46 then plummet to -32 in a 5-day period, with some thunder (exceedingly rare in N.Maine January) and a 20F-in-15-minute temp crash as the CF arrived.

 

Had 32/-11 yest, huge temp range for a Jan day with such innocuous sensible wx.  Was 7 when I left home this morning, or 15F milder than same time yest while the bank sign in Belgrade was 8F colder than yest.  Back to the usual...

 

Edit:  Here are the temps in Ft.Kent for Jan 27-31, 1994 -

 

1/27/1994 -11 -32

1/28/1994  11 -13

1/29/1994  46  16

1/30/1994  28 -13

1/31/1994   -2 -31

Not quite as compact as BTV, but the daily mean jumped by 52.5F over two days, then back down by 47.5F during the next two. 

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Man we've been having some ups and downs.

 

MVL's 24 hour hi/lo yesterday was 37/-3 for our classic 40F diurnal swing that this valley seems to be able to achieve quite frequently in the summer between the Spine and Worcesters.  It was a dry mid-30s yesterday and I didn't notice really any melting at all except on like the roads and paved areas, as well as south facing black roof-tops.

 

Then last night, MVL dropped back to a low of 4F.  Brrrr.

 

 

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I finally found time to generate the updated 2012-2013 plot for the date of attaining 24” snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake.

 

1213-24-inchstakeplot.jpg

 

This season, the date (December 22nd, Depth=28”, Green Star) was still later than average (December 12th, Avg. depth=25.9”, thick vertical black line at center) due to the slow first half of December, but unlike last season (January 3rd, Depth=24”, Red Star) it was well within the 1 S.D. bars (thin vertical black lines).  Note that the 24” mark is being used as an indicator of when the first forays into appropriate off piste/tree skiing terrain typically start in the Central and Northern Greens.  In terms of empirical tree skiing observations, my personal experience again lends some support to the use of 24” mark this year, as we began venturing into the trees the very next day on December 23rd at Bolton Valley.  It should be noted though, that while the 24” mark was attained on December 22nd this season, the 40” mark was attained the very next day on December 23rd.  The 40-inch rule (i.e. reaching the 40” mark at the stake), is used as an indicator of when most off piste/tree skiing around here is ready to go.  Although I haven’t looked into the data, this season has got to represent one of the quickest ascents from 24” to 40” in there - it’s interesting to note however that after rising to 42” of depth on December 23rd, and 24th, the snowpack settled back to 36” for a couple of days before rebounding to 45” on the 27th.  Even after hitting the 40” mark, the snowpack has continued to build, and it’s now past 50”.  The off piste at Stowe is in great shape, supported by the fact that we skied the Chin Clip Streambed on Sunday and there were just a few spots here and there where you had to watch out for coverage:

 

06JAN13C.jpg

 

For reference, I grabbed the actual list of dates for attaining 24” snowpack from my post last season, and those are listed below:

 

Season/Date of 24” Depth
1954-1955 12/8
1955-1956 12/16
1956-1957 12/31
1957-1958 1/8
1958-1959 12/9
1959-1960 12/14
1960-1961 12/21
1961-1962 12/8
1962-1963 12/22
1963-1964
1964-1965 1/20
1965-1966 11/18
1966-1967 12/29
1967-1968 11/20
1968-1969 11/20
1969-1970 12/22
1970-1971 12/7
1971-1972 12/3
1972-1973 12/1
1973-1974 1/5
1974-1975 12/17
1975-1976 12/4
1976-1977 11/13
1977-1978 11/27
1978-1979 12/14
1979-1980 1/23
1980-1981 11/16
1981-1982 11/22
1982-1983 1/16
1983-1984 12/1
1984-1985 12/6
1985-1986 12/16
1986-1987 12/9
1987-1988 12/20
1988-1989 12/4
1989-1990 12/1
1990-1991 11/11
1991-1992 1/10
1992-1993 1/14
1993-1994 12/26
1994-1995 1/3
1995-1996 12/3
1996-1997 12/9
1997-1998 11/27
1998-1999 12/30
1999-2000 1/8
2000-2001 12/2
2001-2002 12/31
2002-2003 11/23
2003-2004 11/14
2004-2005 12/13
2005-2006 12/12
2006-2007 10/30
2007-2008 11/25
2008-2009 12/8
2009-2010 12/16
2010-2011 12/7
2011-2012 1/3

2012-2013 12/22

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Only up to 27 here so far. 

 

Clouds rolled in long before the sun could really go to work and mix things up.

 

Torch fail, for now anyway.

 

I don't think today was supposed to be much of a torch. Although higher than 27F yes. Mid/Upper 30's here along the western slopes and CPV. Lack of sun is definitely helping.

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Are we looking at Freezing Rain, light snow, or virga with this line of precip coming through VT at the moment?  We are sitting at 25 here in St. J.

 

The forecasts I’ve seen mention just rain or snow – I haven’t looked at soundings or anything, but it seems like it’s just a standard temperature/elevation precipitation event.

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I don't think today was supposed to be much of a torch. Although higher than 27F yes. Mid/Upper 30's here along the western slopes and CPV. Lack of sun is definitely helping.

 

Then again even if we only hit 37F today, that's still +10F over the average.

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The forecasts I’ve seen mention just rain or snow – I haven’t looked at soundings or anything, but it seems like it’s just a standard temperature/elevation precipitation event.

 

absolutely - I'm going 2-4 with a few higher pockets above 2500 feet in the northern greens.

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I don't think today was supposed to be much of a torch. Although higher than 27F yes. Mid/Upper 30's here along the western slopes and CPV. Lack of sun is definitely helping.

 

This morning's zones had Orange County with a high 'around 40'.  P&C had me down for 39. 

 

Those are at least +10s.  Torch?

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This morning's zones had Orange County with a high 'around 40'.  P&C had me down for 39. 

 

Those are at least +10s.  Torch?

 

I'm not arguing that its not cooler than forecast, although we are at least +10F here west of the Greens. But I still don't consider it a torch. Perhaps I'm biased being originally from somewhere a little more south, but its gotta be closer to 50F for me to call it a torch.

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